Is This Working for the GOP?
Plus: Tilting at Windmills
Hereās the headline from Harry Entenās CNNās analysis: āWhy GOP leaders are playing it smart when it comes to Trump.ā
Since itās Monday, letās talk about the word āsmartā for a moment.
Enten looks at some early polls and concludes that āthe statistics reveal that Republicans may be playing it right when it comes to Trump.ā The cancellation of Liz Cheney may look messy, but the base likes it, and the GOP is doing well on generic matchups. As Enten notes: āRepublicans are in no worse position than they were in the 2020 election. In fact, they're actually polling better now on the generic ballot than they were heading into the last election by about 3 to 4 points because polling across the board underestimated Republicans.ā
āThe best case scenario for Republicans,ā he writes, āis to turn out his voters, while trying to keep Trump out of the limelight.
āRight now, it could be argued they're doing exactly that.ā
So coups, conspiracy theories, cultic loyalty, and purges turn out to be acts of heartbreaking political genius after all?
I respect Entenās work, so this is worth some thinking about, if only as a reflection of the internal ethos of the swamp.
We can easily recognize this logic: Success ā measured by polls, or profits, or high grades ā is āsmartā if you donāt dwell too much on other metrics. A company may pollute the environment, cut corners on quality, and game its taxes but be considered āsmartā if it leads to profits. The kid on the playground who gets in his secret punches, but then gets a gold star from his teacher is āsmart.ā A sports team that cheats to win the World Series and gets to keep the ring ā āsmart.ā
And a politician who gaslights and lies, but still polls well, can expect the muted applause of cynical punditry. Getting away with it is all that matters, because #winning.
Enten is right: this is what Republicans are telling themselves. And even though it may be cynical and amoral, that does not mean that their analysis is totally wrong.
As Bill Kristol pointed out in the Bulwark last week, there are reasons to be worried. Polls suggest that Republicans are coming home, and are now more engaged than their Democratic counterparts.
Over the weekend, the pollsters at the Democracy Corps sounded a similar alarm, warning that their surveys make it āpainfully clear Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, and Kevin McCarthy know their party.ā
āThe Trump loyalists who strongly approve of him are two-thirds of those who identify as, āRepublican.ā,ā they write. āAnd they are joined by the Trump-aligned to form a breathtaking, three quarters of the party in the electoral battleground states and districts that will decide who leads the country.ā
We were also surprised by how much Donald Trumpās loyalist party is totally consolidated at this early point in its 2022 voting and how engaged it is. Yes, they have pulled back from historic presidential year levels: the percent scoring 10, the highest level of interest in the election, has fallen from 84 to 68 percent. But Democratsā engagement fell from 85 percent to 57 per-cent. Republicans are following their political theater much more closely than are Democrats ā producing an 11-point gap.
**
Politicoās playbook provided another antidote to Democratic complacency:
ā While it might look like a shitshow in Washington, the [GOP] is more like a hurricane gathering strength off shore that will wallop Democrats beginning in 2022. The Republican Party has a structural advantage in the House, Senate and Electoral College. It controls redistricting in a majority of states. Most ominously for Democrats ā and democracy ā it is using its power in statehouses and governorsā mansions across the country to pass voting laws that solidify these advantages.
**
A cautionary note: it is still early days and the political environment can shift rapidly. But, as Kristol wrote here last week, we could all use a dose of hard reality: It is āworth coming to grips with the fact that the contemptible, even dangerous, behavior by the overwhelming majority of House Republicans does not automatically mean that they will be punished politically.ā
The arc of off-year elections is short, and it may not bend toward justiceā¦.
But the beginning of wisdom is to recognize the situation, to overcome complacency and resist wishful thinking. The beginning of wisdom, as Tocqueville put it, is to āhave that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them.ā
Tilting at Windmills?
My latest piece looks at the effort by prominent former Republican officials to fix or replace the GOP.
It would be nice to think that a group of former Republican officeholders ā folks who have won state and national elections ā would be able to make one last stand to save the party from the extremists and the cranks.
Indeed, the Washington Post op-ed argued that: āWith Cheneyās dismissal from House leadership, the battle for the soul of the Republican Party ā and our country ā is not over. It is just beginning.ā
But thatās not true. The fight is over. The crackpots, conspiracists and bigots have won, and there is no point pretending that this is a party that can be salvaged anytime soon. As Jeff Greenfield notes in Politico, there is no civil war in the Republican Party ā there is only a āpurge.ā
The group seemed to acknowledge that when they promised that āWe will not wait forever for the GOP to clean up its act.ā
But, what are they waiting for now?
How many signs do they need? How many canaries have to die? How many red lines have to be crossed?
You can read the whole thing here.
An authoritarian party. Make sure you read Ben Parker in this morningās Bulwark: āThe GOPās Telltale Signs of Authoritarianism.ā
And then, of course, thereās the brain drainā¦.
The Republican party has shed many of its legal, economic, foreign policy, and political expertsāthe very people who enabled it to govern. Its new leading legal light is Rudy Giuliani. Its foreign policy guru is . . . maybe Sen. Rand Paul? (Sorry, Mike Pompeo.) Its most accomplished economist is Larry Kudlow.
The Trumpist āintellectualā movement is a bit like the Sovietsā ersatz space shuttleāit never really got off the ground.
To Trump and his supporters, this is all an asset, not a liability. Sycophants are the only people who wonāt threaten the power structure. But in the long run, the imperatives of internal politics conflict with those of external politics. At least in theory, a political partyās purpose is to win and hold power. How is the Republican party supposed to do that if all the smart, experienced, well-trained, well-organized people have left the party?
As our colleague Amanda Carpenter suggests, reflect on this for a moment:
Must-read: Via Jonathan Swan at Axios: āTrump's war with his generals.ā
Miller told associates he had three goals for the final weeks of the Trump administration: #1: No major war. #2: No military coup. #3: No troops fighting citizens on the streets.
Meanwhile:
Why Cheney matters. Will Saletan writes in Slate:
Thereās no magic force field around America that protects us from falling into anarchy or tyranny. What protects usāwhat makes us āexceptional,ā in Cheneyās wordsāis a system of elections, laws, and courts, which in turn relies on enduring popular support for these institutions. Cheney understands how easily this consensus can be shakenā¦.
Maricopa County has seen enough. This is from the Republican county recorder from Arizonaās biggest county:
And this thread is worth your time:
Cheap Shots
Dan Crenshaw bids to be the Elise Stefaniks of Lindsey Grahams.
Dear Leader.
ICYMI the first time around:
