The Democrats face a few problems and some structural political issues.
The first problem that the Democrats face is that they are now the "party in power." In our modern political ecosystem, that almost inevitably means that they are going to lose elections. This is something that history demonstrates to us.
The Democrats face a few problems and some structural political issues.
The first problem that the Democrats face is that they are now the "party in power." In our modern political ecosystem, that almost inevitably means that they are going to lose elections. This is something that history demonstrates to us.
It has little to do with what those governing can do (although that can impact the magnitude of loss) and is mostly about the government (now represented by the Democrats) getting blamed.
The likeability of the candidate and whether or not their party is in power tends to override policy issues in these cases.
The second problem is that people want a lot of things but they want someone else to get the bill or make sacrifices. It is misleading to look at polling data and say that 60% of people support policy X. VERY misleading.
The following questions are all about the same thing, but they would get you VERY different poll results:
A) I believe that we should do more to preserve the environment
B) I believe that we should do more to preserve the environment and that taxes on the rich should be raised to fund that action.
c) I believe that we should do more to preserve the environment and that taxes on everyone should be raised to fund that action.
D) I believe that we should do more to preserve the environment and that I should have to pay $6 per gallon of gas to fund that action.
The further down that list you go, the less likely you are to get majority support. You can do that with pretty much any policy that enjoys "majority" support.
The devil is in the details--it is always in the details. Majority support is ephemeral and largely meaningless when it comes down to brass tacks.
People LOVE broad aspirational ideas. They hate policies that cost them something. This is true whether your aspirational cause is the environment or making America great again. The costs and inconvenience are always meant to be placed on someone else.
The third problem that Democrats face is that, underneath it all, most of us do not like change. The only people REALLY looking for change (particularly large scale change) are the people who are currently being screwed over (or who believe that they are currently being screwed over).
The people at the top definitely do not want change unless they are very sure they will profit from it... and that is rare. The people in the middle are afraid of change because things are at least bearable and who knows how this thing is going to ACTUALLY play out (the old bird in the hand is worth two in the bush perspective). The people on the bottom lack the ability (wealth, power, access) to achieve change--the deck is stacked. This has nothing explicitly to do with racism or sexism (although these get entrained in it).
As soon as the Democrats start putting the details to an aspirational goal and start tying costs to that goal, they lose majority support--particularly in areas that they NEED to win to gain power (because of the nature of our institutions and demographics).
We are faced with a logjam that no one can either figure out how to break or is willing to pay the cost to break.
Bad/stupid rhetoric also does not help the Democrats. Phrases like "defund the police" for example.
Another problem is that people flay out do not believe politicians--they have been burned too many times. They tend to think that they WILL get screwed over, regardles of the goal of the policy.
The Democrats face a few problems and some structural political issues.
The first problem that the Democrats face is that they are now the "party in power." In our modern political ecosystem, that almost inevitably means that they are going to lose elections. This is something that history demonstrates to us.
It has little to do with what those governing can do (although that can impact the magnitude of loss) and is mostly about the government (now represented by the Democrats) getting blamed.
The likeability of the candidate and whether or not their party is in power tends to override policy issues in these cases.
The second problem is that people want a lot of things but they want someone else to get the bill or make sacrifices. It is misleading to look at polling data and say that 60% of people support policy X. VERY misleading.
The following questions are all about the same thing, but they would get you VERY different poll results:
A) I believe that we should do more to preserve the environment
B) I believe that we should do more to preserve the environment and that taxes on the rich should be raised to fund that action.
c) I believe that we should do more to preserve the environment and that taxes on everyone should be raised to fund that action.
D) I believe that we should do more to preserve the environment and that I should have to pay $6 per gallon of gas to fund that action.
The further down that list you go, the less likely you are to get majority support. You can do that with pretty much any policy that enjoys "majority" support.
The devil is in the details--it is always in the details. Majority support is ephemeral and largely meaningless when it comes down to brass tacks.
People LOVE broad aspirational ideas. They hate policies that cost them something. This is true whether your aspirational cause is the environment or making America great again. The costs and inconvenience are always meant to be placed on someone else.
The third problem that Democrats face is that, underneath it all, most of us do not like change. The only people REALLY looking for change (particularly large scale change) are the people who are currently being screwed over (or who believe that they are currently being screwed over).
The people at the top definitely do not want change unless they are very sure they will profit from it... and that is rare. The people in the middle are afraid of change because things are at least bearable and who knows how this thing is going to ACTUALLY play out (the old bird in the hand is worth two in the bush perspective). The people on the bottom lack the ability (wealth, power, access) to achieve change--the deck is stacked. This has nothing explicitly to do with racism or sexism (although these get entrained in it).
As soon as the Democrats start putting the details to an aspirational goal and start tying costs to that goal, they lose majority support--particularly in areas that they NEED to win to gain power (because of the nature of our institutions and demographics).
We are faced with a logjam that no one can either figure out how to break or is willing to pay the cost to break.
Bad/stupid rhetoric also does not help the Democrats. Phrases like "defund the police" for example.
Another problem is that people flay out do not believe politicians--they have been burned too many times. They tend to think that they WILL get screwed over, regardles of the goal of the policy.