I don’t agree that Stevens would have had an easier time beating Rogers. As Nate Silver pointed out today in his Substack, the polls have been really off in Michigan. We really don’t know who would have been the better candidate against Rogers. What I did see was interviews with people leaving the polls yesterday who were not happy with the amount of money PACs (including AIPAC) spent on Stevens. We’ll see what happens, but a lot of people in the comments seem to think they know for certain that Stevens would have won easily against Rogers, and they have absolutely no way of knowing that.
I loathe Moreno, but I have worked professionally in family violence situations, and know that those often force people to choose from only very bad options.
Looking forward to some deeper MI analysis when it comes available: better understanding of why the wide variance between polling & results of Stevens/El-Sayed race; detailed reports on #s of voters w/crosstabs & comparison to past midterms (looking for new Dem voters, any sign of dispirited R primary voters); fodder for further prognostication in a state with some unique characteristics
Beginning to feel like blue bunnies may rescue us from toxic R politics/policies. My heart aches thinking about a child's beloved stuffed blue bunny being held hostage. And, it hasn't been that long since ICE exacted their own cruelty on the Ramos family, symbolized by a child's blue bunny hat. Hopefully this whole sordid Max Miller story, including the stuffed animal, breaks through to the other side at some point... :-( This type of behavior is NOT strength, is NOT manliness, is NOT proof you are worthy of anything but censure. (Of course, if it's somehow not true, there are enough other allegations to make Miller highly unworthy!!)
"These obscene humiliations will last only a few more months at most." His humiliation is one thing...but this guys ex and her whole family will have to watch their backs forever....he seems like the kind of guy who would mimick his favorite president and seek retribution. And violence seems to be his "go to" response.
I just wish I liked El-Sayed better. He just sets my teeth on edge like Platner did. A level of not being able to listen to anything but his own way of doing things. Health care is so much more complicated than slapping the label universal on it. There are so many other systems in the world that do a better job. I still say Michigan lost a huge opportunity in not going with McMorrow - I suspect she would have beaten him.
I’m a (retired) nurse practitioner, and reading about nurses getting killed just gets to me, especially when they’re trying to do good in the world. I’m still furious about Alex Pretti’s murder.
Also he actually came up here and campaigned--the dems and independents up here are often overlooked. He didn't take anything for granted. Conventional wisdom kept telling Stevens she could rely on ads and show up in just a few counties.
I am with former Bulwark contributor Will Selber. The Democratic Party is normalizing anti-Jewish bigotry with the nomination of El-Sayed as another data point.
There is a strain within today’s Democratic coalition that has moved well beyond criticizing Israeli policy. It increasingly portrays Israel itself as uniquely illegitimate and treats nearly every Zionist as morally suspect.
El-Sayed’s father-in-law, Jukaku Tayeb, served on the founding committee of the Islamic Society of North America, an organization that was later identified in federal proceedings relating to Hamas financing.
“But that’s his father-in-law, not him.”
Fair enough.
El-Sayed also welcomed the endorsement of Detroit pastor Horace Sheffield III, who has repeatedly praised Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan. He maintains an enduring relationship with Hasan Piker and frequently appears alongside him at campaign events.
American Zionists need to call out what the government of Israel is doing. "You will not gain security by killing your adversary's children." Jimmy Carter
“The stain on Trump[!?!] and Johnson, however, will remain.“
Stain on Trump? The guy is the living embodiment of the 7 deadly sins. He’s such a morally corrupt human being, it makes you question the character of the American people.
You can’t stain Trump. We are stained by him. Oh, and capitalism. This is really just gross American capitalism as POTUS.
Moreno is a total dick, but he makes a good point. I have friends who are divorced with younger kids, and the relationship doesn’t end with the divorce decree.
Moreno is a dick. Miller is a psychopath. I don't care for either of them, but that's a categorical difference. Moreno could mellow at some point, learn from the past and behave differently. That's not happening for Miller.
Miller's response, translated: "That blue bunny, Jake? Hell, yes, I took it. I'm not giving it back, either, no matter how many times my crazy ex asks. What's more interesting, now, is my crazy ex's dad ..."
Meanwhile, back at the White House, the reptile in charge goes into his usual shifty mode when confronted with a story about a man treating a woman badly. Like insider trading, self-dealing, cheating in sports, not paying bills, money laundering, and tax fraud, this is an outlet for human nature, the need for dominance, to assert itself. Alas, all too many people mistakenly see those activities as wrong, so the reptile can't defend them too much. So inconvenient.
while it is true that Al-Sayed didn’t win by double digits as the polling predicted, i am uncertain that the disparity in millions spent on each campaign was taken into account? to me, his win in spite of that difference, speaks volumes.
It’s like when Sarah says Mamdani only won by a small margin. Mamdani was running against 2 other candidates, and he would have cleaned up even more if it was only Cuomo on the Republican ticket. Which is what most centrist Dems are anyway.
To those of us who live in the places Bill wrote about where the Democratic nominee drops out to make way for an independent because the Democratic brand is so toxic, the victory of el-Sayed feels like a step further away from detox of said brand.
El-Sayed is a Democrat, running as a Democrat (unlike, say, Bernie, who IS still independent). McMorrow dropped out bkz her numbers were falling (and she endorsed AeS and was at his election night event).
If that's your line of thinking, the senate is already lost.
el-Sayed is closer to the old school Ted Kennedy, Tip O'Neal dems that were around when I was a Democrat. "Regular" Democrats like Chuck Schumer can pound sand.
I guess the "Vote Blue No Matter Who" epithet is pretty much BS, then.
I am terrified that it is probably a 60% chance to take the house, and that the likely map is that it will be a single digit of margin in the house.
The "Blue Wave" is a lot of hubris on the pundit class, that I am not feeling. In September 2024, I started getting very worried about the Presidential election, and I had a premonition that the polling was deceiving.
I don’t agree that Stevens would have had an easier time beating Rogers. As Nate Silver pointed out today in his Substack, the polls have been really off in Michigan. We really don’t know who would have been the better candidate against Rogers. What I did see was interviews with people leaving the polls yesterday who were not happy with the amount of money PACs (including AIPAC) spent on Stevens. We’ll see what happens, but a lot of people in the comments seem to think they know for certain that Stevens would have won easily against Rogers, and they have absolutely no way of knowing that.
I loathe Moreno, but I have worked professionally in family violence situations, and know that those often force people to choose from only very bad options.
Looking forward to some deeper MI analysis when it comes available: better understanding of why the wide variance between polling & results of Stevens/El-Sayed race; detailed reports on #s of voters w/crosstabs & comparison to past midterms (looking for new Dem voters, any sign of dispirited R primary voters); fodder for further prognostication in a state with some unique characteristics
Beginning to feel like blue bunnies may rescue us from toxic R politics/policies. My heart aches thinking about a child's beloved stuffed blue bunny being held hostage. And, it hasn't been that long since ICE exacted their own cruelty on the Ramos family, symbolized by a child's blue bunny hat. Hopefully this whole sordid Max Miller story, including the stuffed animal, breaks through to the other side at some point... :-( This type of behavior is NOT strength, is NOT manliness, is NOT proof you are worthy of anything but censure. (Of course, if it's somehow not true, there are enough other allegations to make Miller highly unworthy!!)
"These obscene humiliations will last only a few more months at most." His humiliation is one thing...but this guys ex and her whole family will have to watch their backs forever....he seems like the kind of guy who would mimick his favorite president and seek retribution. And violence seems to be his "go to" response.
I just wish I liked El-Sayed better. He just sets my teeth on edge like Platner did. A level of not being able to listen to anything but his own way of doing things. Health care is so much more complicated than slapping the label universal on it. There are so many other systems in the world that do a better job. I still say Michigan lost a huge opportunity in not going with McMorrow - I suspect she would have beaten him.
The GPS jamming thing was hard to read. Yes, I understand Moreno's silence at least a bit.
I’m a (retired) nurse practitioner, and reading about nurses getting killed just gets to me, especially when they’re trying to do good in the world. I’m still furious about Alex Pretti’s murder.
Also he actually came up here and campaigned--the dems and independents up here are often overlooked. He didn't take anything for granted. Conventional wisdom kept telling Stevens she could rely on ads and show up in just a few counties.
What's another stain on Trump and Johnson? There are so many there already that one more won't even be detectable.
I am with former Bulwark contributor Will Selber. The Democratic Party is normalizing anti-Jewish bigotry with the nomination of El-Sayed as another data point.
A Time for Choosing
Why American Zionist Should Draw a Line
https://grumpycombatveteran.substack.com/p/a-time-for-choosing
Excerpt:
There is a strain within today’s Democratic coalition that has moved well beyond criticizing Israeli policy. It increasingly portrays Israel itself as uniquely illegitimate and treats nearly every Zionist as morally suspect.
El-Sayed’s father-in-law, Jukaku Tayeb, served on the founding committee of the Islamic Society of North America, an organization that was later identified in federal proceedings relating to Hamas financing.
“But that’s his father-in-law, not him.”
Fair enough.
El-Sayed also welcomed the endorsement of Detroit pastor Horace Sheffield III, who has repeatedly praised Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan. He maintains an enduring relationship with Hasan Piker and frequently appears alongside him at campaign events.
American Zionists need to call out what the government of Israel is doing. "You will not gain security by killing your adversary's children." Jimmy Carter
“The stain on Trump[!?!] and Johnson, however, will remain.“
Stain on Trump? The guy is the living embodiment of the 7 deadly sins. He’s such a morally corrupt human being, it makes you question the character of the American people.
You can’t stain Trump. We are stained by him. Oh, and capitalism. This is really just gross American capitalism as POTUS.
Moreno is a total dick, but he makes a good point. I have friends who are divorced with younger kids, and the relationship doesn’t end with the divorce decree.
Moreno is a dick. Miller is a psychopath. I don't care for either of them, but that's a categorical difference. Moreno could mellow at some point, learn from the past and behave differently. That's not happening for Miller.
Miller's response, translated: "That blue bunny, Jake? Hell, yes, I took it. I'm not giving it back, either, no matter how many times my crazy ex asks. What's more interesting, now, is my crazy ex's dad ..."
Meanwhile, back at the White House, the reptile in charge goes into his usual shifty mode when confronted with a story about a man treating a woman badly. Like insider trading, self-dealing, cheating in sports, not paying bills, money laundering, and tax fraud, this is an outlet for human nature, the need for dominance, to assert itself. Alas, all too many people mistakenly see those activities as wrong, so the reptile can't defend them too much. So inconvenient.
Great. Now I have talking heads stuck in my head. Thanks, Andrew.
Elsewhere in these comments, Andrew gives credit to Sam for the headline.
while it is true that Al-Sayed didn’t win by double digits as the polling predicted, i am uncertain that the disparity in millions spent on each campaign was taken into account? to me, his win in spite of that difference, speaks volumes.
It’s like when Sarah says Mamdani only won by a small margin. Mamdani was running against 2 other candidates, and he would have cleaned up even more if it was only Cuomo on the Republican ticket. Which is what most centrist Dems are anyway.
Is there a danger of it NOT being a blue wave since el-Sayed won? I don't think I quite understand the headline, here.
To those of us who live in the places Bill wrote about where the Democratic nominee drops out to make way for an independent because the Democratic brand is so toxic, the victory of el-Sayed feels like a step further away from detox of said brand.
El-Sayed is a Democrat, running as a Democrat (unlike, say, Bernie, who IS still independent). McMorrow dropped out bkz her numbers were falling (and she endorsed AeS and was at his election night event).
El-Sayed, and all the other DSA candidates, are "Democrats" in the same sense that the Tea Party/MAGA candidates are "Republican."
If that's your line of thinking, the senate is already lost.
el-Sayed is closer to the old school Ted Kennedy, Tip O'Neal dems that were around when I was a Democrat. "Regular" Democrats like Chuck Schumer can pound sand.
I guess the "Vote Blue No Matter Who" epithet is pretty much BS, then.
McMorrow endorsed El-Sayed vs. Rogers, not El-Sayed vs. Stevens. (I know you know, but all readers may not.)
I am terrified that it is probably a 60% chance to take the house, and that the likely map is that it will be a single digit of margin in the house.
The "Blue Wave" is a lot of hubris on the pundit class, that I am not feeling. In September 2024, I started getting very worried about the Presidential election, and I had a premonition that the polling was deceiving.
I am getting that vibe a month earlier.
Single digit margin or full fledged wave, the administration is unlikely to take the risk.
You ain't the only one feeling uneasy about the mid-terms, assuming we have mid-terms.