Three Ways Joe Biden Could Lose the Nomination
The August Democratic power rankings.
Hello, darkness my old friend.
When summer began, our top three spots were held by Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg. This was not based on only polling, but on positioning within the field. Biden held a commanding lead and Bernie was a clear secondābut Mayor Pete was in a statistical muddle with three other candidates (Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Beto OāRourke) and looked to have a very large upside.
Since then weāve had 12 weeks of polling, two sets of debates, and the departure of two minor candidates (Eric Swalwell and John Hickenlooper). Labor Day is around the corner and we are only 27 weeks from Iowa. The hour is later than you think.
(1) Joe Biden. The former vice president went from being a theoretical candidate to a real candidate. (Remember, he only jumped into the race in late April.) He rolled out his campaign, assembled a fundraising operation, endured a set of mini-scandals, gave the public a first look at his tanned, rested, and ready self, and weathered two debates where all of the White Walkers came for him.
And all that happened is that his lead over his nearest competitor went from +6 on the day he announced (ahead of Bernie Sanders) to +13 today (over Elizabeth Warren).
He has a solid lead in Iowa, a small lead in Bernie- and Warren-adjacent New Hampshire, and a dominating lead in South Carolina. He continues to beāby farāthe strongest challenger to Trump in general election match-up polling. (Where the most recent survey from Fox NewsāFox News!āhas him +12 against President Trump.)
All of which is to say that Biden was the favorite to win the nomination in May and his advantage since then has grown.
It used to be the case that if you were offered the chance to bet on Biden, or the field, it was a close call. Thatās no longer the case. If you want to bet on the field today, you should get odds.
That said, itās still possible to see how Biden mucks this up:
Thereās the General Collapse theory: He makes some unrecoverable gaffe, or has a meltdown in a debate that he canāt put behind him.
Thereās the Consolidated Challenge theory: Progressive voters unite behind one candidate immediately before (or after) Iowa; and then wage trench warfare, delegate-by-delegate, fighting Biden all the way to Milwaukee.
Thereās the Hand of God theory: Some event slingshots another candidate past him. This would have to be something major, like a Michelle Obama endorsement or a financial panic.
Any of these things could happen. Electoral environments change frequently. Remember the 2004 Democratic primary and the 2008 Republican primary, when the presumed front-runners tanked, then came back from the dead to run the tables? Or the 2012 Republican primary, when just about every declared candidateāeven Herman Caināhad a moment at the head of the pack?
On the other hand, sometimes races are radically stable. The 2016 Republican primary was like that: Trump took the lead early and then held it. The collapse never came.
At this point, the nomination is Bidenās to lose.
(2) Elizabeth Warren. I canāt believe I have her this high. But itās a function not of her strength, but her positioning: Sheās the candidate with the best chance of pulling off the Consolidated Challenge.
Warrenās national numbers have surged in the last few weeks, but thatās not what impresses me. What impresses me is that she continues to be strong in Iowa and that sheās managed to move past Bernie nationally.
So hereās her theory of victory:
Warren finishes ahead of Bernie in Iowa. Progressives then quickly jump ship to get behind the candidate they believe has the best chance of stopping Biden. Warren finishes top two in New Hampshire, takes her licks in South Carolina, and then wins a marathon victory over the course of months. She persists!
To be clear, I donāt buy this. It assumes that everybody else in the field stands still and that Biden himself doesnāt increase his support and isnāt the second choice of Bernie and Harris and Mayor Pete voters. It assumes that everything goes right for Warrenāand wrong for everyone else.
But at least itās a theory and there are only a couple of candidates who even have one of those.
Also: Warren stands poised to benefit from events should there be a Hand of God moment. For instance, if there was a Bear Stearns-like collapse that rattled the markets, Warren is positioned to speak to voters in a way that, say, Mayor Pete and Kamala Harris are not.
(3) Kamala Harris. Sheās back down to earth. After having a real moment during the first debate, Harris is basically back where she was. And thatās becauseāas I keep sayingāsheās an empty vessel.
Sometimes this is an advantage for a candidate, because voters can fill the campaign with their own personal hopes and dreams. But most of the time itās a weakness. You have to give people a reason why youāre running and the reason cannot, transparently, be āBecause I want to be president.ā
(Which, in fairness to Harris, is why >95 percent of candidates run. Itās also a big reason Hillary Clinton lost.)
But like Warren, at least she has a plausible theory of victory: African-American voters and suburban women flock to her after New Hampshire, giving her a coalition that can go toe-to-toe with Biden while Warren and Bernie split the progressive vote.
Is this likely? Not based on anything weāve seen so far. But she has native political talent and if Biden goes through a General Collapse, then sheās as well-positioned as anyone to pick up his support.
(4) Bernie Sanders. Heās in free fall and he has no idea what to do about it.
As Beto OāRourke knows, itās pretty easy to run mano-a-mano against a single, deeply unpopular candidate. Itās like selling umbrellas in the rain.
Running against a wide field of people, many of whom are personally popular is ... harder. If youāre used to selling umbrellas in the rain, bright lights can be a disorienting experience.
Thatās where Bernie is now and itās why heās lashing out against the Biased Fake News Media and sounding, more and more, like the Elseworldās Trump.
All of the indicators are going the wrong way for Bernie right now. Heās been on a prolonged decline in the polls since March. His biggest overall rival is Biden, and Biden launched successfully. His biggest in-lane rival is Warren, and she has gained steadily for three months.
And itās not clear what Bernie can do to snap the rubber band and change the race.
(5) Pete Buttigieg. Look, he already accomplished what he wanted with this campaign. Mayor Pete is one of those people (like Harris) whoās wanted to be president since first grade. But heās a gay, white, liberal from Indiana. How was this supposed to work?
The first step was easy: Run for mayor in a college town. But how do you catapult from South Bend mayor to the national stage? He canāt run for Senate or the governorās office in Indianaāheās way out of step with the state politically. But another way to build a national profile is by making an impressive run on the presidential stage and turning yourself into an obvious cabinet pick for the next Democratic president.
Mission accomplished.
But that may be as far as this train goes. African-American voters havenāt warmed to him. He hasnāt taken from the progressive bases of Warren and Bernie. And the race hasnāt turned into a generational choice.
Mayor Pete has the money and the energy. He has the candidate skills. You can see how, if the debates ever shrink to the five real candidates, he could shine.
What you canāt see is how he wins the nomination. There is no version of the story where he ends up on the throne. This time.
(6) People who might make it to New Hampshire. There are three candidates who are serious people with serious futures who have no chance of winning the nomination. Which is to say: Even if everything went right for them and everything went wrong for everyone else, they still donāt win:
Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand.
They probably stay in the race through Iowa. Maybe they hang around until New Hampshire. But thatās when theyāre going to depart gracefully and hope that the eventual nominee remembers them fondly.
(9) People who maybe just might make it to Iowa. Thereās another class of candidates with futures for whom even making it to Iowa will be an achievement:
Beto OāRourke, Steve Bullock, Michael Bennett, Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tim Ryan, Jay Inslee.
For some of them, when they drop out of the race will be a function of political opportunism. For others itāll be a function of whether or not they believe their issues got a fair hearing.
For none of them will it be a function of them suddenly realizing that they arenāt going to be the nominee.
(16) The YOLO brigade. Finally thereās the group of candidates who seem to have no real interest in whether or not they hurt the eventual nominee (or the party at large). And so itās basically impossible to guess how far theyāll take this thing because, to them, running for president is pretty much George Costanzaās house in the Hamptons.
I keep waiting for Bill de Blasio, Tulsi Gabbard, Andrew Yang, and Marianne Williamson to tell us about the solarium, the other solarium, Snoopy, and Prickly Pete. Letās get nuts!
And yet, I wouldnāt rule out that possibility that one of them could impact the race, either through a Chris Christie-style kamikaze mission or a decision to run as a third-party candidate.
See you in September.
