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David Dickson's avatar

One note regarding the Israel situation and its impact on the U.S. election:

Joe and Tim are right that most voters care relatively little about the war in Gaza and if anything, support Israel in that war. But the war is almost certainly hurting Joe Biden from the left in an indirect, pernicious, under-the-radar way: Celebrity endorsements.

Walsh would probably laugh at this, but it’s true: Hollywood celebrities are a critical part of elite star power in the Democratic coalition. Republicans sneer at, belittle, and attack them because of their cultural and opinion-shaping power, not because of their lack thereof.

2024 was already a year when a lot of celebrities—due to a hangover from the extreme stress of 2020, and ironically because of the now-booming economy and the thus far greater marginal cost involved in getting active in politics compared to 2020–were staying on the sidelines. (Witness The Rock tying himself into rhetorical pretzels to justify not endorsing Joe Biden, and potentially alienating his burgeoning UFL customer base.)

But the Israel war, given its cultural salience in pop culture industry, and its wall-to-wall presence in the headlines, gives celebrities that much more excuse to sit on their hands, let Joe Biden to his own devices, and not lift a finger to save democracy.

I would even warrant that indirect effect is showing up in the polls, especially as time goes on.

Not something I can prove. But almost certainly what some campaign people are experiencing, day to day to day. :/

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