3) Voting is largely non-rational and is based primarily on identity and how you feel things are going at the moment (not on how you think the other side would do)--and this is a FEELING, it is usually not data based;
3) Voting is largely non-rational and is based primarily on identity and how you feel things are going at the moment (not on how you think the other side would do)--and this is a FEELING, it is usually not data based;
3) polls much more than 90 days out from the actual election are actually kind of shite, because they lack the same context and events may play out in unexpected ways.
Polls have lost whatever value they once had. Does anyone, except the media, actually give a damn about them? Their questions are meaningless in any real context, tend to biased one way or another, and, whether they admit it, people lie. I've gotten a few in the mail and barely managed to resist the temptation to troll them. Instead, I ignore them.
I have worked with polling in the past (both creating and interpreting them). They still have value. The problem is that most people do not really understand polling and the media tends to misuse polling, compounding the error.
It would be better if they did not whip out a poll to support a point or argument. Polls aren't REALLY intended for that--they don't present that type of data in most cases unless very constrained and carefully constructed.
You need to remember that:
1) People are stupid and short-sighted;
2) #1 repeated for emphasis;
3) Voting is largely non-rational and is based primarily on identity and how you feel things are going at the moment (not on how you think the other side would do)--and this is a FEELING, it is usually not data based;
3) polls much more than 90 days out from the actual election are actually kind of shite, because they lack the same context and events may play out in unexpected ways.
Polls have lost whatever value they once had. Does anyone, except the media, actually give a damn about them? Their questions are meaningless in any real context, tend to biased one way or another, and, whether they admit it, people lie. I've gotten a few in the mail and barely managed to resist the temptation to troll them. Instead, I ignore them.
I have worked with polling in the past (both creating and interpreting them). They still have value. The problem is that most people do not really understand polling and the media tends to misuse polling, compounding the error.
It would be better if they did not whip out a poll to support a point or argument. Polls aren't REALLY intended for that--they don't present that type of data in most cases unless very constrained and carefully constructed.