"And if you don’t think Candace Owens would have a shot at winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, then you are whistling past the graveyard."
Realizing that predicting the future, even what will happen next week, is not realistic, and before one can get to the first long shot (CO winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomi…
"And if you don’t think Candace Owens would have a shot at winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, then you are whistling past the graveyard."
Realizing that predicting the future, even what will happen next week, is not realistic, and before one can get to the first long shot (CO winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination), one needs to overcome the predictive hurdle of "Will there be a Republican party capable of providing a presidential nomination in 2028?" I know this is a hard one for those whose life has been the GOP (in its Reagan/Bush form), but you have to make a couple of assumptions to believe it will still exist past the elections of 2024 and 2026.
First you have to believe that the 2024 train wreck waiting to happen of nominating someone under numerous federal and state criminal indictments does not cause a Blue Wave up and down the ballot, washing what is left of the once-GOP into the sewer of history.
Second, you will have to believe that the fear of a Kamala Harris presidency in 2028 will galvanize what is left of the 2024-GOP to circle the Conservative wagons in 2026 ("C" for the pre-Tea Party/Newt Gingrich meaning of the word), and not nominate a pure populistic "Republican" who will go down for the fifth time in 2028 (2020/2/4/6/2028).
Finally, specifically, you have to believe that CO survives the cut-throat world of politics in general and the current White Nationalist Christian movement that has taken control of the GOP in particular to be a viable force in 2028. Methinks that is a prediction too far.
The GoP isn't going to go anywhere soon unless Trump loses the GoP nomination and decides to blow it up through a third party/independent run or other means of sabotage.
Too many utterly safe seats that no non-R is going to win. They may lose on the margins, but a majority of the people currently holding seats in Congress and the Senate will continue to do so. They also still have a very good chance of winning the Presidency regardless of who they nominate (because our system works that way).
I agree that CO herself is not a likely nominee because she IS black and IS a woman... and because the racism and sexism in the GoP seems to be getting worse rather than better.
I do believe, however, that it will be someone like CO in a general sense (as I said in my own post)... an insurgent/outsider with media presence, who "gets" the GoP primary voter and is either authentic or very very good at faking it (which leaves out most of the politicians in the GoP right now, including DeSantis.
DeSantis is going to be history after 2024 and the end of his term as FL governor. He is neither likeable nor authentic.
None of the establishment GoP fit the bill regardless of how MAGA they try to be after the fact.
Cruz is so slimy NO ONE likes him.
Tucker would have been in a good position had he been able to not piss his bosses at Fox off and lose his job. He could potentially rebuild his position. The question is, would he actually want to go there (and I think not, actually). He strikes me as one of those people who is okay being a "kingmaker" and agitator, but doesn't want to be tied down to any actual responsibility.
I think the next "leader" is going to come out of the RWM at some point--but I do not see a clear candidate on the horizon atm. It might (and most likely is) someone qwho isn't even really on the radar at the moment.
I also do not think this leader is likely to appear as long as Trump is alive and probably not until the GoP goes through a period of chaos and infighting after Trump departs.
"Too many utterly safe seats that no non-R is going to win."
No issue there (although upsets do occur), and as long as the current districting is in place. We do have your margins (I like "fringes" better, but no matter) which would be swept away in a Blue Wave giving the D President (presumptively Biden, unless he has a "health event" after election night) a Congress who would be willing to repair some of the Mitch/Kevin madness of the four years past (in 2025), possibly even making the re-election of those safe-seaters questionable next time around.
Sure, upsets are possible... but you do not build strategy or long term success around them.
The major problem is that no electoral result within the next few election cycles is going to deliver 60 Senate seats to the Democrats. Without 60 dependable seats, there isn't much possibility of real repair.
None of the people with the power to change things is REALLY interested in changing things--because who si going to vote their own political power and safety away?
The REAL battleground is the states and any major changes in the states are going to be a function of demographic change rather than people changing their minds--unless there is some catastrophic event that upsets the apple cart--and Trump indictment and conviction for 1/6 is probably NOT that event--not for elections for state legislators and state offices.
All cogently argued, and I was not trying to build a strategy on upsets, merely pointing out that not all "safe" seats are. But your last paragraph is why Ms. Willis' charges and trials in Georgia are so significant.
"And if you don’t think Candace Owens would have a shot at winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, then you are whistling past the graveyard."
Realizing that predicting the future, even what will happen next week, is not realistic, and before one can get to the first long shot (CO winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination), one needs to overcome the predictive hurdle of "Will there be a Republican party capable of providing a presidential nomination in 2028?" I know this is a hard one for those whose life has been the GOP (in its Reagan/Bush form), but you have to make a couple of assumptions to believe it will still exist past the elections of 2024 and 2026.
First you have to believe that the 2024 train wreck waiting to happen of nominating someone under numerous federal and state criminal indictments does not cause a Blue Wave up and down the ballot, washing what is left of the once-GOP into the sewer of history.
Second, you will have to believe that the fear of a Kamala Harris presidency in 2028 will galvanize what is left of the 2024-GOP to circle the Conservative wagons in 2026 ("C" for the pre-Tea Party/Newt Gingrich meaning of the word), and not nominate a pure populistic "Republican" who will go down for the fifth time in 2028 (2020/2/4/6/2028).
Finally, specifically, you have to believe that CO survives the cut-throat world of politics in general and the current White Nationalist Christian movement that has taken control of the GOP in particular to be a viable force in 2028. Methinks that is a prediction too far.
The GoP isn't going to go anywhere soon unless Trump loses the GoP nomination and decides to blow it up through a third party/independent run or other means of sabotage.
Too many utterly safe seats that no non-R is going to win. They may lose on the margins, but a majority of the people currently holding seats in Congress and the Senate will continue to do so. They also still have a very good chance of winning the Presidency regardless of who they nominate (because our system works that way).
I agree that CO herself is not a likely nominee because she IS black and IS a woman... and because the racism and sexism in the GoP seems to be getting worse rather than better.
I do believe, however, that it will be someone like CO in a general sense (as I said in my own post)... an insurgent/outsider with media presence, who "gets" the GoP primary voter and is either authentic or very very good at faking it (which leaves out most of the politicians in the GoP right now, including DeSantis.
DeSantis is going to be history after 2024 and the end of his term as FL governor. He is neither likeable nor authentic.
None of the establishment GoP fit the bill regardless of how MAGA they try to be after the fact.
Cruz is so slimy NO ONE likes him.
Tucker would have been in a good position had he been able to not piss his bosses at Fox off and lose his job. He could potentially rebuild his position. The question is, would he actually want to go there (and I think not, actually). He strikes me as one of those people who is okay being a "kingmaker" and agitator, but doesn't want to be tied down to any actual responsibility.
I think the next "leader" is going to come out of the RWM at some point--but I do not see a clear candidate on the horizon atm. It might (and most likely is) someone qwho isn't even really on the radar at the moment.
I also do not think this leader is likely to appear as long as Trump is alive and probably not until the GoP goes through a period of chaos and infighting after Trump departs.
"Too many utterly safe seats that no non-R is going to win."
No issue there (although upsets do occur), and as long as the current districting is in place. We do have your margins (I like "fringes" better, but no matter) which would be swept away in a Blue Wave giving the D President (presumptively Biden, unless he has a "health event" after election night) a Congress who would be willing to repair some of the Mitch/Kevin madness of the four years past (in 2025), possibly even making the re-election of those safe-seaters questionable next time around.
Sure, upsets are possible... but you do not build strategy or long term success around them.
The major problem is that no electoral result within the next few election cycles is going to deliver 60 Senate seats to the Democrats. Without 60 dependable seats, there isn't much possibility of real repair.
None of the people with the power to change things is REALLY interested in changing things--because who si going to vote their own political power and safety away?
The REAL battleground is the states and any major changes in the states are going to be a function of demographic change rather than people changing their minds--unless there is some catastrophic event that upsets the apple cart--and Trump indictment and conviction for 1/6 is probably NOT that event--not for elections for state legislators and state offices.
All cogently argued, and I was not trying to build a strategy on upsets, merely pointing out that not all "safe" seats are. But your last paragraph is why Ms. Willis' charges and trials in Georgia are so significant.