A Model for Biden as He Passes the Baton
A Model for Biden as He Passes the Baton
Ronald Reagan’s 1988 convention speech showed the importance of the handoff—and of giving your successor space.
PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN’S SPEECH scheduled for tonight at the the Democratic National Convention in Chicago will be among the most important—and difficult—of his career. He will be doing something he has never done before: Endorse his successor after having himself walked away from a campaign. Although common sense and all the polls tell us that withdrawing from the race was the right move for his party’s chances in November, it still runs counter to Biden’s instincts honed in a lifetime of politics.
Historically, the endorsement—the baton-pass—is a difficult move. On the Republican side this feat has happened successfully only twice in a century. Before the Reagan–Bush transition in 1988, you would have to go back to when Herbert Hoover succeeded Calvin Coolidge in 1928. On the Democratic side, since the modern party system emerged after the Civil War, there has never been a Democrat elected to succeed a Democrat—a reminder that American voters have a penchant for change and like to see parties turned out from time to time.
Leaving the public stage is not easy, and for Biden to do so with grace, dignity, and political impact will require a high degree of discipline and self-awareness. The best model for how to depart public life and help one’s successor as well is arguably that of Ronald Reagan’s speech on August 15, 1988 at that year’s Republican National Convention.
Of course, there are significant differences between the two moments. Reagan had served two full terms, leaving with an approval rating of 63 percent. Biden’s departure is with an approval rating of 37 percent and under the cloud of his forced departure from the race following his calamitous June 27 debate performance.
Nonetheless, Biden’s speech will bear some important similarities with Reagan’s, the most important of which is how to pass the baton. What is the most effective way to support Vice President Kamala Harris? Reagan offered a full-throated endorsement of Vice President George H.W. Bush as the Republican nominee, and left no doubt that any voter who was supportive of the Reagan presidency should also be supportive of a Bush presidency.
Yet Reagan did not feel comfortable telling anyone how to vote. In an open democratic system such as that of the United States, the endorsement by any one individual—even an incumbent president—is of finite value. People reserve for themselves the right to make their voting decisions; they don’t want to be told what to do, and the leader of a democracy should not like to tell people what to do, so avoiding a didactic approach becomes important.
All of this colors a presidential endorsement of a successor. The tone, substance, and word choice will be closely scrutinized and commented on. If a president comes on too soft—he must be insincere or lukewarm in his support. If a president comes on too forcefully—he must be propping up the nominee.
Reagan understood this. The first mention of Bush during his endorsement is remarkable for its indirect structure:
Where we really need a change is to elect Republican majorities in both Houses. And then George Bush can have a team that will protect your tax cuts; keep America strong; hold down inflation and interest rates; appoint judges to preserve your rights; and, yes, reduce the budget deficit.
He does not “tell” you who to vote for. He more or less assumes it, by embedding Bush’s success in a general Republican success—all necessary to safeguard Reagan’s own success.
Having reviewed the record, Reagan allows the audience to come to their own conclusion. He illuminates the path and the audience takes the journey. He defines the Bush election as the natural extension of whatever you might like about Reagan:
This office is not mine to give; only you, the people, can do that. But I love America too much and care too much about where we will be in the next few years. I care that we give custody of this office to someone who will build on our changes, not retreat to the past, someone who will continue the change all of us fought for. To preserve what we have and not risk losing it all, America needs George Bush—and Barbara Bush as First Lady.
He wraps up with a bit of self-deprecating charm, a bit of corn, and a bit of nostalgia:
So, George, I’m in your corner. I’m ready to volunteer a little advice now and then and offer a pointer or two on strategy, if asked. I’ll help keep the facts straight or just stand back and cheer. But, George, just one personal request: Go out there and win one for the Gipper.
And the hall erupts with wild applause and cheers.
The speech carries optimism—about America, about the American people, and in general about the future. This fits with Reagan’s view of conservatism, that people’s lives will be improved primarily through their actions and beliefs, and not through a government program.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR REAGAN, and for Biden, is to give some space to their successors. A nominee has to stand on his own two feet, and being defined by, helped by, endorsed by one’s predecessor risks devaluing the candidate. On one hand, the vice president has to be able to state that the president did a superb job and the vice president will keep a good thing going. On the other hand, the vice president must also say, I am my own person. I will make my own decisions. I am not merely a carbon copy of my boss. I will lead our nation in the next phase of the journey. A bit of a high-wire act, potentially. Only fifteen of the forty-nine vice presidents in U.S. history have become presidents, and nine of these moved up through death or resignation.
Despite being well-known, Bush lacked an independent political identity when he announced his campaign for president, for the simple reason that it is impossible for a sitting vice president to have an identity separate from a sitting president. He had to undertake the journey of reintroducing himself to the American public.
This reintroduction provides an opportunity to Vice President Harris, who has done a masterful job of rapidly consolidating the Democratic base and now can decide to reassure middle America that she has some centrist instincts as well. If Harris fails to go beyond this base appeal in her own convention speech on Thursday night, she subsumes her identity into Biden’s and puts a ceiling on her popularity. It will be a challenge for Harris simultaneously to show respect for Biden and sufficiently differentiate herself. No carbon copies, please.
As Republicans convened in 1988, a Gallup poll showed Reagan’s Democratic opponent, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, with an alarming 54–37 lead over Bush. There were factors beyond Reagan’s speech that changed this outcome, notably Bush’s superb acceptance speech. The first Gallup poll after the convention showed that the Dukakis lead had melted away. Bush was now ahead, 49–41. Dukakis never again came within five points of Bush.
The approach Reagan took in New Orleans largely defines the approach Biden needs to take in Chicago. Leaving the stage and empowering his vice president to take on Donald Trump on her own terms would be a bold and selfless move that would win the hearts of the convention. And it is a prerequisite for the vice president to fully reintroduce herself to the country. President Biden, pass the baton and give your vice president some space.
Frank Lavin served in the Reagan White House for most of the eight years of the Reagan presidency. His book, Inside the Reagan White House, will be published next year.
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