Navalny's Widow Speaks Out
Plus: Too many state-level abortion fights for pro-choice groups to fund.
In the midst of all this Russia/Ukraine news, somehow we’ve barely gotten around to remarking on this remarkable number: $355 million, the sum a New York judge ordered Donald Trump, his sons, and his companies to pay last week at the conclusion of their civil fraud trial. Counting interest, that sum could push all the way to $450 million.
Happy Tuesday.
‘My Husband Was Unbreakable’
I want to ask something unusual of you today.
Instead of spending a few minutes reading my latest missive, I’m asking that you spend a few minutes watching this remarkable video. You’ll see that it’s far more eloquent and important than anything I could write here.
The video was posted to YouTube by Yulia Navalnaya, the wife—the widow—of Alexei Navalny, three days after her husband’s murder. Yulia Navalnaya explains what her husband was fighting for and what he died for, and calls upon her listeners—all of us—to join her in carrying forward his fight for freedom.
Here is an excerpt of the transcript, via The Insider:
I shouldn’t have been in this place. I shouldn’t have recorded this video. There should have been another person in my place, but this person was killed by Vladimir Putin. Three days ago, Vladimir Putin killed my husband Alexei Navalny. Putin killed the father of my children, took away the most precious thing I had, [my] closest and most beloved person. But Putin also took Navalny away from you, where in a colony in the Far North, above the Arctic Circle, in the eternal winter, Putin didn’t just kill Alexei Navalny the man—he wanted to kill our hopes, our freedom, [and] our future together with him.
My husband was unbreakable. And that’s exactly why Putin killed him. Shamefully, cowardly, never daring to look him in the eye or just call his name. And just as shamefully and cowardly, they are now hiding his body, not showing it to his mother, not handing it over, and pathetically lying and waiting for traces of yet another Putin ‘Novichok’ [nerve agent] to disappear.
We know what exactly led Putin to kill Alexei three days ago. We’ll tell you about it soon. We’ll definitely find out who exactly and how exactly executed this crime. We’ll name names and show faces. But the main thing we can do for Alexei and for ourselves is to keep fighting.
As you can see, it’s an extraordinarily moving tribute to her husband, a man of almost unimaginable courage. And it’s a bracing challenge to us to devote ourselves, in whatever manner we are able, to that cause for which Alexei Navalny gave the last full measure of devotion, and to highly resolve that Alexei Navalny shall not have died in vain.
—William Kristol
Too Many Battlefields
How badly are abortion foes losing the national post-Dobbs abortion-policy conversation? The biggest problem facing abortion-access groups in 2024 isn’t making sure voters choose their side in state-level contests—it’s funding ballot-access challenges in all the states that suddenly seem open to them. Politico reports:
From deep-red Arkansas and Missouri to purple Arizona and Nevada, activists are already competing with each other for a limited pool of cash and auditioning for the national progressive groups they need to fund their efforts to enshrine protections in state constitutions.
There isn’t enough for everyone, particularly as wealthy donors who have showered ballot campaigns with cash in the two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade now have their attention—and wallets—divided between those efforts and presidential and congressional races.
The scramble is pitting abortion-rights supporters in states with near-total bans against those in states where abortion is legal but under threat against those in battleground states where Democrats hope a strong abortion access campaign will juice turnout and propel President Joe Biden and congressional candidates to victory.
In states with direct-democracy policymaking, getting an issue on the ballot usually comes down to money. Each state has different requirements for getting on the ballot, but all require petitioners to collect a certain number of voter signatures, usually from a number of places around the state. Getting those signatures requires time, organization, and plenty of cash. Ohio voters chose to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution last year; that effort’s petition drive cost $6.65 million. (That’s to say nothing of the costs associated with passing an amendment; ballot-issue ad spending in Ohio last year ended up surpassing $68 million.)
This “too many battlefields” issue is interesting for a couple reasons. One, it’s a striking illustration of how commandingly the pro-choice side is winning the battle of public opinion in the wake of Dobbs: Since 2022, from red Ohio and Kentucky to blue California and Michigan, no ballot initiative expanding abortion access has failed, and no ballot initiative curtailing it has succeeded.
But it’s also a reminder of the unique tensions this year between two progressive aims that ostensibly go hand in hand: expanding abortion access everywhere possible at the state level and electing pro-choice politicians to federal office. A finite pool of national money will mean prioritizing either red states with particularly restrictive abortion regimes, or purple states where having abortion directly on the ballot may juice progressive turnout.
Abortion policy hasn’t been quite the silver bullet for Democrats that recent referendum results might suggest: Signing strict bans didn’t hurt the 2022 reelection chances of otherwise popular Republican governors like Ohio’s Mike DeWine, Georgia’s Brian Kemp, and Florida’s Ron DeSantis. But it’s still been an electoral force multiplier, helping Democrats cut their House losses in 2022 and helping buoy Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, to reelection last year.
Are Pro-Choice Trump Voters ‘Persuadable?’
Joe Biden plainly considers abortion policy a crucial piece of his reelect pitch, campaigning on a “Restore Roe” platform at early campaign events. But whether it will help him carve away voters who would otherwise support Donald Trump remains to be seen. Up at The Bulwark today, we have an insightful piece from Rich Thau and Matt Steffee of the research firm Engagious, digging into a pair of recent focus groups they did with “Trump-voting women in swing-state Pennsylvania who remain dismayed by the overturning of Roe v. Wade”:
Despite their profound unhappiness with the Dobbs decision, these women say the issue of abortion is not nearly as resonant as the economy and immigration.
“[Preserving abortion rights] means nothing in the grand scheme of everything to me,” said Sarah, 35, from Cresco. “I’m going to vote for who I think is going to be the best for my family.”
“I’m a woman and I should have more of a say about it, but honestly it doesn’t matter that much to me, as it might matter to someone else, said Stacey, 50, from Philadelphia.
Kathi, 62, from Shickshinny, said, “Unfortunately, it falls to like number five [on my priority list], like what I’m concerned about. It’s number five.”
“Another surprise from the group,” the authors add, “was that only three of the fifteen women said that former President Trump is even partially responsible for Roe v. Wade being overturned. There was barely any awareness that he nominated three Supreme Court justices who made overturning Roe a reality. In fact, there was a great deal of uncertainty among these respondents about where Trump even stands on abortion.”
Catching up . . .
Trump allies prepare to infuse ‘Christian nationalism’ in second administration: Politico
Alabama Supreme Court rules frozen embryos are children, imperiling IVF: Washington Post
Biden’s colossal cash advantage: Axios
Joe Manchin announces he will not run for president, says he isn’t endorsing Biden right now: The Hill
Nikki Haley says Trump is ‘weak in the knees’ for Russia: NBC News
Informant who lied to the FBI about Hunter Biden to appear in court: NBC News
Tech companies sign accord to combat AI-generated election trickery: AP News
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is almost out of time to launch a reelection campaign: Axios
ICYMI: A note from JVL
We’re not going to slow down this year.
Hey friends, Now that things have settled down I wanted to close the loop/circle back with you all on the new investments we’ve made in The Bulwark and give a shout out to our Bulwark+ community for making all this possible. Tim Miller is getting settled into the chair on the flagship podcast and he’s doing a tremendous job.
Quick Hits: A Really Bad Week for Republicans
Sometimes the news comes so thick and fast it’s useful to take a minute to look back and take stock. Last week was one of those weeks for Trump and his allies:
Monday: The Senate forges ahead with legislation to continue to aid Israel against Hamas and Ukraine against Russia, despite all-night filibustering from MAGA senators and strong opposition from Trump himself. The package ultimately passes 70 to 29.
Tuesday: Democrat Tom Suozzi sails to victory over Republican Mazi Pilip in a New York special election to the U.S. House, flipping the seat formerly held by George Santos and cutting the Republican House majority to two seats. Donald Trump gets a court date—March 25—for his first criminal trial, the hush-money case in New York.
Wednesday: The House punts on planned votes on Section 702 FISA reauthorization as the deeply divided Republican conference fails to agree on a path forward.
Thursday: Alexander Smirnov—an FBI informant whose accusations of corruption against Joe Biden were spread widely by congressional Republicans—is indicted for making felony false statements.
Friday: Donald Trump is ordered to pay $355 million (or more) in civil fraud judgment.
Cheap Shots
Until Mike Pence admits it was a massive betrayal of the country to ever support Trump, I don't want to hear from him.
Yulia Navalnaya already has her account suspended on Twitter--Elon gave no reason as to why this is.
Expect to continue seeing the fusion of White Christian Nationalism (WCN) and pro-Putin sentiments within the American right moving forward. Things that bring those two sentiments together are pretty straight-forward: anti-LGBTQ+ sentiments/cis supremacy, anti-minority sentiments/white supremacy, anti-immigrant sentiments/xenophobia, a love of strongmen and oligarchs, anti-feminism/pro-traditional masculinity, and a desire to dominate western liberals in culture via political power and use of force. The more that Putin extols these virtues, the more the modern right looks up to him.
Until America abandons belief in Bronze Age supernatural systems of worship, large segments of it will continue to devolve into conspiracy theories, will continue to dislike immigrants/LGBTQ+ people/liberal supporters of both, and will continue to worship strongmen like Putin who can fake being morally-religious in order to command a culture centered around an unquestionable authority (god). Not only should that "authority" be considered questionable, but the whole premise for that authority should be as well--a Bronze Age creation fable that goes against literally everything science has proven to us about the known universe since Newton & Bacon. Until the bible and its stories are largely considered to be bullshit in the public square, the WCNs will wrap themselves in it as a moral shield and not get their their immorality called out in public because they worship an unquestionable authority. Sorry folks, but until organized religion goes the way of the dinosaur, you're going to constantly be defending democracy against autocratic theocracy. These folks are strapping on "the armor of god" and nobody has the heart to tell them to their faces publicly that their specific interpretation of a Bronze Age fable is completely full of shit and nobody wants to base our democracy around it. Tell them that their version of religion is un-American and full of shit and nobody wants our government to be representative of their nonsense religious views.
Stand up for a secular America folks! People have a right to believe in and worship whatever nonsense they want to, but they don't get to force their cultural views onto the rest of us through government. I don't give a shit how "sincerely held" your religious beliefs are, keep them the fuck out of public policy!