Right now a bunch of people are kind of hanging around deciding whether they are going to contest the GoP primary or not. Most of the people hanging around in indecision probably should not bother as their chance is close to zero.
There are really only two contenders at this point, Trump and DeSantis. Six of one and a half-dozen of the ot…
Right now a bunch of people are kind of hanging around deciding whether they are going to contest the GoP primary or not. Most of the people hanging around in indecision probably should not bother as their chance is close to zero.
There are really only two contenders at this point, Trump and DeSantis. Six of one and a half-dozen of the other, but DeSantis would have (IMO) better odds of winning the general in 2024--SO LONG AS TRUMP DOESN"T BURN THE GoP DOWN.
Most of the GoP leadershit is standing around with their thumbs up their ass, knowing what they SHOULD do and lacking the courage to do it. As always, they are hoping VERY VERY hard that someone else will come along and solve their trump problem.
Hope is NOT a strategy.
I do not think that an indictment from the DoJ is going to slow Trump down--in fact I would bet the reverse... so no hope there.
He may drop dead... but the perversity of the universe tends to the maximum and so I kind of think that he is still going to be around for quite a few years yet. He seems like one of those people everybody wished would drop dead that lives to 100 out of sheer cussedness.
He is already non compos mentis and was in 2016, so no hope there.
As I said here earlier in another thread, DeSantis is waiting for the right moment--which may, in fact, not come. After Trump's statement about disregarding the Constitution (and the incredibly meh GoP response) he is likely even more concerned (or should be if he had half a brain).
The statement from Trump was, in effect, pure schoolyard bully stuff. It is something that Trump has a VERY good feel for and instinctively uses to good effect and usually at a good time. The man is not smart in the conventional sense, but he has superior bully instincts. Comes from a lifetime of experience.
Trump may or may not recognize the absurdity of what he said. He certainly does not care about the larger ramifications or the legal ramifications (but as discussed yesterday, the phrasing has a lot of plausible deniability built into it).
It was a statement of power. I am going to say this totally outrageous thing that flies in the face of "conservative" myth and propaganda. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT? I dare you. I double dog dare you. Here, let me slap you in the face with my dick while I say it... still nothing?
And this guy holds NO institutional authority or position. No office in the government or party. No actual institutional power. He DOES have a cult, though.
Annnnnnnd you get (in effect) crickets. Who has the whip hand here? It isn't the GoP leadershit or the GoP donor class. Or the potential GoP challengers.
I am increasingly convinced that DeSantis is NOT going to find the right moment.
I am also convinced that Trump WILL burn the GoP down around him if he does not win the nomination... because the GoP has no plan to stop him. No way to stop him. They have demonstrated their abject cowardice multiple times.
It doesn't matter what the polls say. It doesn't really matter what the donors want. It doesn't matter what Faux says, because they are middle of the pack now in GoP media terms. What matters is what Trump wants. Unless you can separate him from his cult, there is no way to stop him from torching the GoP... and there is NO way that the GoP leadershit is going to put themselves in a position to trigger that torching if they can help it.
I have stocked up on popcorn for the shitshow that is coming. Rs don't want to, and won't, stand up to trump and kick him to 5th Ave where he is free to shoot anyone and keep his supporters. They would prefer Ds do the dirty work for them. I don't credit Ds with masterminding Rs having to do their own dirty work, but I am happy to sit back and enjoy the upcoming R demise. Or at least, that is what the previews reveal is coming.
Ya'll should have heeded Lindsey Graham's prophetic words in 2015 about deserving your own demise if you supported this joke of a candidate, back when he was his own little joke living on an island of one. Hoo boy, has that island of inhabitants grown!
IMHO, DeSantis won't be the GOP nominee. He will either not run due to Trump-fear or run and be blown apart by Trump and the normally harsh scrutiny that every presidential candidate must endure. Trump's got the nomination if he's still living, wants it, and isn't in prison. If Trump doesn't run and DeSantis blows up, the field is wide open and it's anyone's guess who comes out on top.
Well, Trump is already running... and I seriously doubt that any legal proceeding against him will be quick enough to land him in jail before 2024. And being in jail is no bar to running. Being a convicted felon is not a bar to running.
I have to say, that despite everyone making fun of TFG's lawyers and the occasional article about how the legal system is allegedly holding him to account, his lawyers have performed just fine in terms of keeping him out of jail and free to go about his business. There's a clear statute for Congress to get the tax returns, but how many years did it take?
That is by design. Generally, unless you are well-heeled or can get lawyers to work pro bono or on contingency, you can only work the court system so much... and you generally don't get to court shop and you do not have judges you appointed on the bench.
If you have enough money (your lawyers only need to be marginally competent) you can drag things out for a LONG time--long enough that your opponent runs out of time or money or both and either gives up or is forced to settle... and then your lawyers eat most of the settlement.
You can even outlast the US government (particularly if the government changes hands).
Given the existing dynamics, anyone you get will be just as bad as Trump. I am just hoping for some kind of challenger that actually has some chops because the bloodbath will further damage the GoP, regardless of who comes out on top.
Right now a bunch of people are kind of hanging around deciding whether they are going to contest the GoP primary or not. Most of the people hanging around in indecision probably should not bother as their chance is close to zero.
There are really only two contenders at this point, Trump and DeSantis. Six of one and a half-dozen of the other, but DeSantis would have (IMO) better odds of winning the general in 2024--SO LONG AS TRUMP DOESN"T BURN THE GoP DOWN.
Most of the GoP leadershit is standing around with their thumbs up their ass, knowing what they SHOULD do and lacking the courage to do it. As always, they are hoping VERY VERY hard that someone else will come along and solve their trump problem.
Hope is NOT a strategy.
I do not think that an indictment from the DoJ is going to slow Trump down--in fact I would bet the reverse... so no hope there.
He may drop dead... but the perversity of the universe tends to the maximum and so I kind of think that he is still going to be around for quite a few years yet. He seems like one of those people everybody wished would drop dead that lives to 100 out of sheer cussedness.
He is already non compos mentis and was in 2016, so no hope there.
As I said here earlier in another thread, DeSantis is waiting for the right moment--which may, in fact, not come. After Trump's statement about disregarding the Constitution (and the incredibly meh GoP response) he is likely even more concerned (or should be if he had half a brain).
The statement from Trump was, in effect, pure schoolyard bully stuff. It is something that Trump has a VERY good feel for and instinctively uses to good effect and usually at a good time. The man is not smart in the conventional sense, but he has superior bully instincts. Comes from a lifetime of experience.
Trump may or may not recognize the absurdity of what he said. He certainly does not care about the larger ramifications or the legal ramifications (but as discussed yesterday, the phrasing has a lot of plausible deniability built into it).
It was a statement of power. I am going to say this totally outrageous thing that flies in the face of "conservative" myth and propaganda. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT? I dare you. I double dog dare you. Here, let me slap you in the face with my dick while I say it... still nothing?
And this guy holds NO institutional authority or position. No office in the government or party. No actual institutional power. He DOES have a cult, though.
Annnnnnnd you get (in effect) crickets. Who has the whip hand here? It isn't the GoP leadershit or the GoP donor class. Or the potential GoP challengers.
I am increasingly convinced that DeSantis is NOT going to find the right moment.
I am also convinced that Trump WILL burn the GoP down around him if he does not win the nomination... because the GoP has no plan to stop him. No way to stop him. They have demonstrated their abject cowardice multiple times.
It doesn't matter what the polls say. It doesn't really matter what the donors want. It doesn't matter what Faux says, because they are middle of the pack now in GoP media terms. What matters is what Trump wants. Unless you can separate him from his cult, there is no way to stop him from torching the GoP... and there is NO way that the GoP leadershit is going to put themselves in a position to trigger that torching if they can help it.
That is so depressing.
Does it make sense to call them GOP leadership when they have so little ability to lead? GOP figureheads? GOP functionaries? GOP apparatchiks?
Look CAREFULLY at the word I use ;)
I have stocked up on popcorn for the shitshow that is coming. Rs don't want to, and won't, stand up to trump and kick him to 5th Ave where he is free to shoot anyone and keep his supporters. They would prefer Ds do the dirty work for them. I don't credit Ds with masterminding Rs having to do their own dirty work, but I am happy to sit back and enjoy the upcoming R demise. Or at least, that is what the previews reveal is coming.
Ya'll should have heeded Lindsey Graham's prophetic words in 2015 about deserving your own demise if you supported this joke of a candidate, back when he was his own little joke living on an island of one. Hoo boy, has that island of inhabitants grown!
IMHO, DeSantis won't be the GOP nominee. He will either not run due to Trump-fear or run and be blown apart by Trump and the normally harsh scrutiny that every presidential candidate must endure. Trump's got the nomination if he's still living, wants it, and isn't in prison. If Trump doesn't run and DeSantis blows up, the field is wide open and it's anyone's guess who comes out on top.
Well, Trump is already running... and I seriously doubt that any legal proceeding against him will be quick enough to land him in jail before 2024. And being in jail is no bar to running. Being a convicted felon is not a bar to running.
I have to say, that despite everyone making fun of TFG's lawyers and the occasional article about how the legal system is allegedly holding him to account, his lawyers have performed just fine in terms of keeping him out of jail and free to go about his business. There's a clear statute for Congress to get the tax returns, but how many years did it take?
Yes, it's a sad comment on our legal system. It was just not built to deliver justice against such a well-funded onslaught.
That is by design. Generally, unless you are well-heeled or can get lawyers to work pro bono or on contingency, you can only work the court system so much... and you generally don't get to court shop and you do not have judges you appointed on the bench.
If you have enough money (your lawyers only need to be marginally competent) you can drag things out for a LONG time--long enough that your opponent runs out of time or money or both and either gives up or is forced to settle... and then your lawyers eat most of the settlement.
You can even outlast the US government (particularly if the government changes hands).
All the justice money can buy - that’s the justice system in capitalistic societies - because everything - everything - is based on money.
It's amazing what you can get away with when you're allowed to court shop and judge shop and appeal indefinitely.
That's all true, unfortunately.
;)
Given the existing dynamics, anyone you get will be just as bad as Trump. I am just hoping for some kind of challenger that actually has some chops because the bloodbath will further damage the GoP, regardless of who comes out on top.
If only…..ya know?
As I said, six of one and a half dozen of the other.