1. Minesweeper
There have been low-grade reports about Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz for several days. I am skeptical of this rumint for two reasons. First, because the claims seem to come from “American officials,” and the U.S. government is no longer a trustworthy source of information. Second, because it is not in Iran’s interest to lay mines . . . yet.
That’s because mines are a dead man’s switch and Iran is currently looking to strike side deals for passage with China. By relying on drones and missiles to close the strait, Iran retains the flexibility to offer selective passage—which gives it both a bargaining chip and a wedge. Once mines are deployed, that strategic avenue is cut off and the strait is closed semi-permanently.1 For that reason, deploying mines is a strategic escalation—the economic equivalent of a tactical nuke. I would expect Iran to hold that card in reserve.
But you didn’t come here for strategy talk. I promised you the stupidest Trump mentals ever. So buckle up:
Mining the Strait of Hormuz is the single biggest danger America faced heading into any conflict with Iran. How did our commander-in-chief plan to deal with it?
Six months ago the Navy decommissioned its four Avenger-class minesweepers that had been stationed in Bahrain precisely to deal with Iranian mines.
It gets dumber: Those four final American minesweepers left the theater in mid-January—while war planning for the current operation must already have been underway.
But wait, it gets even dumberer!