Approximately 40% of Ukrainians have fled as refugees. Their homes, infrastructure and economic resources are devastated to near stone age conditions. The brave Ukraine military is winning stunning victories but being slowly degraded. Russia controls about 1/5 of Ukrainian land. And they have plenty more troops and assault equipment. They have not yet started strategic carpet bombing. And many US Republicans, along with authoritarian rulers in the global perspectives are whining about higher food and gas prices. Putin has personal security, and 322B$ of personal assets.
So….Putin is in a very powerful and secure position to advance his agenda.
If Putin does conduct a tactical nuclear strike, that does not automatically mean nuclear retaliation by the West. Conventional military force can still do a lot of damage, so I would expect retaliation through that channel. If Putin brings out the nukes, it becomes an existential crisis for the West, and may lead Biden and the Europeans to conclude that it is far too dangerous to allow such an escalation to go unanswered. Mutually assured destruction kept the peace for over 50 years, and may do so again.
WotR forgets escalation tactic #4: "Oops! the Ukrainian military attacked us at a nuke plant we occupied and now there's radiation all over Ukraine." That's the semi-nuclear, plausibly-deniable escalation tactic often overlooked. Iran can do this too any day it wants with an "Oops! a tanker spill in the Straits of Hormuz that cuts off 40% of global oil trade!" Never forget the "Oops!" form of escalation that's always there, because it's often the least-risky and most-deniable.
And if you think that tactic is off the table, remember: they pulled all of the Russian-speaking Ukrainian civilians they care about out of the Donbas before this whole thing kicked off. Their civvies are safe downwind.
Imagine if the United States military had trained and equipped the Ukrainian army as well as it had the Afghan army.
I say this to address JVL’s contention that we should have stayed in Afghanistan, in spite of the fact that the Afghans would not/did not fight their own conflict, whereas the Ukrainians are fighting with tremendous tenacity.
And the greater point is that while it was indeed painful (and shameful?) to leave Afghanistan, it was (and remains) the right strategic decision. I believe that our exit there was a necessary condition to enabling the U.S. to strategically focus on the rivals that really matter to it (i.e. Russia and China).
I just got back from seeing "Mr. Landsbergis" at a documentary film festival. Even though it is FOUR HOURS long, I recommend it. It is a current interview with the former president of Lithuania, intercut with amazing footage from the late 80s, early 90s, when Lithuania was fighting for independence from the USSR. I won't go into all the many, many things that a) I learned about events that occurred in my adult lifetime that I had no idea about and b) the many ways that today's Ukrainian situation echoes that. But a big takeaway is that the Lithuanians showed the same kind of determined courage in the face of the USSR that we are seeing now. The unarmed, unprotected people in the streets protesting the Soviet soldiers and their tanks and guns...wow!
The film was released last year by Ukrainian director Sergei Loznitza, who, as the film was being screened here, was apparently driving from Germany to Poland to meet his parents, recently evacuated from Ukraine.
Thanks for the rec. Four hours seems a bit much but I'll look for it. It's clearly "timely." Perhaps Americans will look back to when we too had grit and determination.
Thanks for Note 1. Exactly what I was thinking about the parallels. Yes, there is only one authoritarian playbook, whether you're Putin or Trump, or Hitler, who gave Trump his Big Lie. (BTW, it was Timothy Snyder who first called "the election was stolen" Trump's Big Lie, sometime in October, 2020.)
I think it would be quite a coup for Tass to hire Tucker away from Fox. If he's just in it for $$$$ they would offer twice what Fox is paying him (well, maybe not now). Funny thing is, I don't think it's all performance.
Compare and contrast the treatment of the millions of Ukrainian refugees flooding into Europe and the comparatively parsimonious and hostile treatment of a few thousand Iraqi, Afghan and Syrian refugees last fall. They were every bit as much victims of Putin and the Belarussian state as any leaving Ukraine now. And while the EU clutched their pearls they did very little to help.
This is not to say that we shouldn't be doing what we can for Ukrainian refugees but that we need to see that all refugees be treated equitably regardless of origin.
I agree that refugees should be treated equally regardless of their origin, but it is not that simple. Having many European relatives and friends in Denmark, Holland and France. I have heard much of the distrust some Europeans have come to feel about anyone from the Middle East or North Africa that is a Muslim, including Muslim refugees. Theo van Gogh, the Dutch film maker, was shot dead by a 26-year-old Dutch-born Muslim (of refugee parents) in November 2004. In Denmark, a Danish national a Muslim convert, Anders Behring Breivik, killed 77 innocent people in 2011. In France the more recent murder of Samuel Paty shocked Europeans yet again. Paty, a school teacher, was killed and beheaded by an Islamist with refugee origins. These types of actions have catalysed a steady erosion of moderation and self-censorship on race and religion within liberal Europe, and even more so in conservative countries, for example Poland.
Not to put too fine a point on it but Anders Behring Breivik was a pagan right wing nationalist, not a convert to Islam. The attack was in Norway, not Denmark. He also wanted to expel Moslems from Europe. Caution in accepting refugees from anywhere is always justified and rational but the racism (and antisemitism) being exhibited by Poland, and being irrationally manipulated by Poland's ruling party, is unacceptable.
I apologize, as I should have checked names before may hasty post. I was trying to state that my family and friends in Europe, which include family in Holland and Denmark, and friends in France all have raised concerns about Islamists (who murder Europeans) long before Putin invaded Ukraine. Espen Andersen Braathen was a Danish man who converted to Islam, and then killed people in Norway. (The Norwegian, Anders Breivik was indeed a right wing nationalist). However, an honest evaluation cannot be had about Europe without discussing why some Europeans fear Muslims from North Africa and the Middle East, but not Ukrainians. Oversimplification does not lead to understanding issues. Yes, obviously what is occuring in Poland is unacceptable in terms of naked racism. Being of Jewish European heritage and being married to American Jew, the violation of human rights is always objectionable. However, that was not the main point I was trying to make. One cannot pretend that the fear some people in Europe feel about radical Islam -- including a fear of refugees who happen to be Muslims -- does not exist. I am not sure what the solution is, but perhaps it is far more complex than one might realize, and a discussion on the clash of extreme religious values versus liberal ideals, for example, freedom of speech , might be of some value.
Since no men are allowed out of Ukraine, the Ukranian refugees are women and children. No men. That was not the case for the Iraqi, Afghani and Syrian refugees.
So if more Ukrainian men were migrating the response would be different? And although the majority of the Belarusian migrants were men there were whole families caught up in the disaster and the number wasn't great.
The sadder part is that the EU is not capable of enforcing its own human rights laws on its member nations like Poland, Latvia and Hungary. When it comes to the human rights of migrants and LGBTQ citizens the EU is impotent and member nations can ignore them at will without any repercussions.
More interesting to me is how the EU will respond if Putin prevails and either annexes Ukraine or sets up a puppet regime. Will they go back once peace is established? Is the EU prepared to absorb several million Ukrainian women and children many of whom will be widows and orphans?
In this case, where Europeans were self-organizing and driving themselves to the border, yes, I think the response would be different if it were mostly men. I don't know much about the migrants crossing from Belarus last year except that they weren't Europeans. I don't know enough about the EU to respond to the rest of your questions.
Mar 5, 2022·edited Mar 5, 2022Liked by Jonathan V. Last
I don't think there will be any nuclear attack, not as the situation stands at present. It is true that we've been told that Russians do not militarily separate nuclear from non-nuclear arms per general doctrine, but they do understand what those weapons do. And, what a blast would likely mean. If there are any narrow slices of possibility that incite NATO nations to get militarily involved, that blast is at the front of all of them.
Putin's political survival, especially considering how he publicly treats personnel important to his power, depends on not running from one kicked hornet nest to another, bigger, and unkicked nest.
Before I left on my walk to enjoy some podcasts and read through emails, I saw that there was a ceasefire in effect. I think this forks down two, nonexclusive paths.
Down A, Putin means to use the ceasefire to turn his attention back to domestic affairs and reconsolidate domestic political power. He spends his resources drawing the Western response to his aggression in starker anti-Russian terms and relates his struggle to his people's current struggles (for which he is wholly to blame).
Down B, the ceasefire is a way to create more oxygen for his next fireball of a move. B1, I think, is an Iron Curtain reintroduction encompassing Russia, Belarus, and one or several small "successor republics" he'll craft from what he's currently taken from Ukraine. NATO will not move against him militarily for any reason unless he kicks NATO's nest first.
My guess is he makes several mini-states from the spoils, as opposed to one small state. He can frame these as his "success", both domestically and in areas of Western political discourse that disfavor his enemies (which gets people like Sen. Graham back on his side, at least on Twitter, after Trump reaches down between his legs for what Putin has taken and lionizes Putin yet again).
I think B2 is a false flag operation that provides enough chaff for long enough that he can escalate his conventional attacks with deeper stocks of what Russia still has in its munitions. So long as the West never sees his guns run dry, he has the appearance of fangs.
Thanks, JVL and The Bulwark, for providing a space for all of us. Don't give up, and consider giving your money or time to help Ukraine and your fellow travelers.
The Romilly Weeks Twitter video brought tears to my eyes. Yes, there is good in the world, there is all manner of good in the world... Ukrainian courage and European generosity.
JVL out there preachin’! That part about Putin being a caged animal in survival mode w/ the threat of potentially being deposed from w/in & escalating dramatically to “go big or go home” in a blaze of glory—a la our boy Adolf—worries me the most, not gonna lie.
Approximately 40% of Ukrainians have fled as refugees. Their homes, infrastructure and economic resources are devastated to near stone age conditions. The brave Ukraine military is winning stunning victories but being slowly degraded. Russia controls about 1/5 of Ukrainian land. And they have plenty more troops and assault equipment. They have not yet started strategic carpet bombing. And many US Republicans, along with authoritarian rulers in the global perspectives are whining about higher food and gas prices. Putin has personal security, and 322B$ of personal assets.
So….Putin is in a very powerful and secure position to advance his agenda.
If Putin does conduct a tactical nuclear strike, that does not automatically mean nuclear retaliation by the West. Conventional military force can still do a lot of damage, so I would expect retaliation through that channel. If Putin brings out the nukes, it becomes an existential crisis for the West, and may lead Biden and the Europeans to conclude that it is far too dangerous to allow such an escalation to go unanswered. Mutually assured destruction kept the peace for over 50 years, and may do so again.
WotR forgets escalation tactic #4: "Oops! the Ukrainian military attacked us at a nuke plant we occupied and now there's radiation all over Ukraine." That's the semi-nuclear, plausibly-deniable escalation tactic often overlooked. Iran can do this too any day it wants with an "Oops! a tanker spill in the Straits of Hormuz that cuts off 40% of global oil trade!" Never forget the "Oops!" form of escalation that's always there, because it's often the least-risky and most-deniable.
And if you think that tactic is off the table, remember: they pulled all of the Russian-speaking Ukrainian civilians they care about out of the Donbas before this whole thing kicked off. Their civvies are safe downwind.
I thought winds in Europe generally move west to east. It seems eastern Ukraine and western Russia would be seriously at risk.
A thought experiment…
Imagine if the United States military had trained and equipped the Ukrainian army as well as it had the Afghan army.
I say this to address JVL’s contention that we should have stayed in Afghanistan, in spite of the fact that the Afghans would not/did not fight their own conflict, whereas the Ukrainians are fighting with tremendous tenacity.
And the greater point is that while it was indeed painful (and shameful?) to leave Afghanistan, it was (and remains) the right strategic decision. I believe that our exit there was a necessary condition to enabling the U.S. to strategically focus on the rivals that really matter to it (i.e. Russia and China).
I just got back from seeing "Mr. Landsbergis" at a documentary film festival. Even though it is FOUR HOURS long, I recommend it. It is a current interview with the former president of Lithuania, intercut with amazing footage from the late 80s, early 90s, when Lithuania was fighting for independence from the USSR. I won't go into all the many, many things that a) I learned about events that occurred in my adult lifetime that I had no idea about and b) the many ways that today's Ukrainian situation echoes that. But a big takeaway is that the Lithuanians showed the same kind of determined courage in the face of the USSR that we are seeing now. The unarmed, unprotected people in the streets protesting the Soviet soldiers and their tanks and guns...wow!
The film was released last year by Ukrainian director Sergei Loznitza, who, as the film was being screened here, was apparently driving from Germany to Poland to meet his parents, recently evacuated from Ukraine.
Thanks for the rec. Four hours seems a bit much but I'll look for it. It's clearly "timely." Perhaps Americans will look back to when we too had grit and determination.
Of course I noticed the similarities. They really are quite glaring. Thank you J VL I really really do like your work
Re: Ukrainian Relief, Alexander and Rachel Vindman mention two groups I’ve never heard of. Moas.eu and VetVoicesFoundation. We could consider them.
Good connection.
Thanks for Note 1. Exactly what I was thinking about the parallels. Yes, there is only one authoritarian playbook, whether you're Putin or Trump, or Hitler, who gave Trump his Big Lie. (BTW, it was Timothy Snyder who first called "the election was stolen" Trump's Big Lie, sometime in October, 2020.)
I think it would be quite a coup for Tass to hire Tucker away from Fox. If he's just in it for $$$$ they would offer twice what Fox is paying him (well, maybe not now). Funny thing is, I don't think it's all performance.
Compare and contrast the treatment of the millions of Ukrainian refugees flooding into Europe and the comparatively parsimonious and hostile treatment of a few thousand Iraqi, Afghan and Syrian refugees last fall. They were every bit as much victims of Putin and the Belarussian state as any leaving Ukraine now. And while the EU clutched their pearls they did very little to help.
This is not to say that we shouldn't be doing what we can for Ukrainian refugees but that we need to see that all refugees be treated equitably regardless of origin.
I agree that refugees should be treated equally regardless of their origin, but it is not that simple. Having many European relatives and friends in Denmark, Holland and France. I have heard much of the distrust some Europeans have come to feel about anyone from the Middle East or North Africa that is a Muslim, including Muslim refugees. Theo van Gogh, the Dutch film maker, was shot dead by a 26-year-old Dutch-born Muslim (of refugee parents) in November 2004. In Denmark, a Danish national a Muslim convert, Anders Behring Breivik, killed 77 innocent people in 2011. In France the more recent murder of Samuel Paty shocked Europeans yet again. Paty, a school teacher, was killed and beheaded by an Islamist with refugee origins. These types of actions have catalysed a steady erosion of moderation and self-censorship on race and religion within liberal Europe, and even more so in conservative countries, for example Poland.
Not to put too fine a point on it but Anders Behring Breivik was a pagan right wing nationalist, not a convert to Islam. The attack was in Norway, not Denmark. He also wanted to expel Moslems from Europe. Caution in accepting refugees from anywhere is always justified and rational but the racism (and antisemitism) being exhibited by Poland, and being irrationally manipulated by Poland's ruling party, is unacceptable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamophobia_in_Poland
I apologize, as I should have checked names before may hasty post. I was trying to state that my family and friends in Europe, which include family in Holland and Denmark, and friends in France all have raised concerns about Islamists (who murder Europeans) long before Putin invaded Ukraine. Espen Andersen Braathen was a Danish man who converted to Islam, and then killed people in Norway. (The Norwegian, Anders Breivik was indeed a right wing nationalist). However, an honest evaluation cannot be had about Europe without discussing why some Europeans fear Muslims from North Africa and the Middle East, but not Ukrainians. Oversimplification does not lead to understanding issues. Yes, obviously what is occuring in Poland is unacceptable in terms of naked racism. Being of Jewish European heritage and being married to American Jew, the violation of human rights is always objectionable. However, that was not the main point I was trying to make. One cannot pretend that the fear some people in Europe feel about radical Islam -- including a fear of refugees who happen to be Muslims -- does not exist. I am not sure what the solution is, but perhaps it is far more complex than one might realize, and a discussion on the clash of extreme religious values versus liberal ideals, for example, freedom of speech , might be of some value.
Since no men are allowed out of Ukraine, the Ukranian refugees are women and children. No men. That was not the case for the Iraqi, Afghani and Syrian refugees.
So if more Ukrainian men were migrating the response would be different? And although the majority of the Belarusian migrants were men there were whole families caught up in the disaster and the number wasn't great.
The sadder part is that the EU is not capable of enforcing its own human rights laws on its member nations like Poland, Latvia and Hungary. When it comes to the human rights of migrants and LGBTQ citizens the EU is impotent and member nations can ignore them at will without any repercussions.
More interesting to me is how the EU will respond if Putin prevails and either annexes Ukraine or sets up a puppet regime. Will they go back once peace is established? Is the EU prepared to absorb several million Ukrainian women and children many of whom will be widows and orphans?
In this case, where Europeans were self-organizing and driving themselves to the border, yes, I think the response would be different if it were mostly men. I don't know much about the migrants crossing from Belarus last year except that they weren't Europeans. I don't know enough about the EU to respond to the rest of your questions.
I don't think there will be any nuclear attack, not as the situation stands at present. It is true that we've been told that Russians do not militarily separate nuclear from non-nuclear arms per general doctrine, but they do understand what those weapons do. And, what a blast would likely mean. If there are any narrow slices of possibility that incite NATO nations to get militarily involved, that blast is at the front of all of them.
Putin's political survival, especially considering how he publicly treats personnel important to his power, depends on not running from one kicked hornet nest to another, bigger, and unkicked nest.
Before I left on my walk to enjoy some podcasts and read through emails, I saw that there was a ceasefire in effect. I think this forks down two, nonexclusive paths.
Down A, Putin means to use the ceasefire to turn his attention back to domestic affairs and reconsolidate domestic political power. He spends his resources drawing the Western response to his aggression in starker anti-Russian terms and relates his struggle to his people's current struggles (for which he is wholly to blame).
Down B, the ceasefire is a way to create more oxygen for his next fireball of a move. B1, I think, is an Iron Curtain reintroduction encompassing Russia, Belarus, and one or several small "successor republics" he'll craft from what he's currently taken from Ukraine. NATO will not move against him militarily for any reason unless he kicks NATO's nest first.
My guess is he makes several mini-states from the spoils, as opposed to one small state. He can frame these as his "success", both domestically and in areas of Western political discourse that disfavor his enemies (which gets people like Sen. Graham back on his side, at least on Twitter, after Trump reaches down between his legs for what Putin has taken and lionizes Putin yet again).
I think B2 is a false flag operation that provides enough chaff for long enough that he can escalate his conventional attacks with deeper stocks of what Russia still has in its munitions. So long as the West never sees his guns run dry, he has the appearance of fangs.
Thanks, JVL and The Bulwark, for providing a space for all of us. Don't give up, and consider giving your money or time to help Ukraine and your fellow travelers.
All thoughtful stuff, as usual. Be sure to include jdc.org in your how-to-help roundup.
The Romilly Weeks Twitter video brought tears to my eyes. Yes, there is good in the world, there is all manner of good in the world... Ukrainian courage and European generosity.
JVL out there preachin’! That part about Putin being a caged animal in survival mode w/ the threat of potentially being deposed from w/in & escalating dramatically to “go big or go home” in a blaze of glory—a la our boy Adolf—worries me the most, not gonna lie.
Very insightful - So many thanks !
JVL, thank you. Your work is so valuable to us all.