I think Putin is, in fact, incredibly fearful of the West. Ukraine doesn't get invaded if the Putin regime is confident in their demographic and economic future.
I'm still a bit puzzled on the *why* though. Prestige? Russia seemed to have a pretty nice future set up as a 'managed' democracy that would do business with the democratic natio…
I think Putin is, in fact, incredibly fearful of the West. Ukraine doesn't get invaded if the Putin regime is confident in their demographic and economic future.
I'm still a bit puzzled on the *why* though. Prestige? Russia seemed to have a pretty nice future set up as a 'managed' democracy that would do business with the democratic nation states of the former 'first' world. What changed?
Maybe nothing. In university I had a (Estonian) professor who said that the intersection of criminal organizations, ex-KGB, and the oligarchs was a very bad thing for the future of Russia and Europe. He didn't believe any of these guys would be interested in a society governed by rule of law or equitable relations with their neighbours. The love of money and power motivated these guys, and now that they'd taken over the country, it was just a matter of time before things got bad again.
And things got bad again. I wish I remembered that when I was in my 'Amcon' reading phase, and believed that 'nATo eXPansION' was behind all of Europe's problems on the eastern frontier.
I might be way off base here but, imo, the reason is relatively simple. The ex-KGB lieutenant colonel has recurring wet dreams of returning *all* of the previous Soviet Union countries back into Russian hegemony. Putin is craving "the good old days."
I agree this is part of the motivation, but Putin also wants to prevent successful democratic/westernized ex-Soviet republics next door which might invite questions or risk to his regime.
I think this is a big part of it, along with all those ex-soviet republics and non-Russian citizens of Russia. I have to think there's a bit of, "expand or die" in the Russian thinking. Their heartland is open to invasion from many sides, so expansion to defensible borders is something I see cited from time to time.
Beyond that, if they don't look strong and vibrant, how long are they going to keep Siberia from China? I heard that China is already doing a soft invasion of sorts. A weak Russia is going to lose and lose and lose on front after front.
I think Putin is, in fact, incredibly fearful of the West. Ukraine doesn't get invaded if the Putin regime is confident in their demographic and economic future.
I'm still a bit puzzled on the *why* though. Prestige? Russia seemed to have a pretty nice future set up as a 'managed' democracy that would do business with the democratic nation states of the former 'first' world. What changed?
Maybe nothing. In university I had a (Estonian) professor who said that the intersection of criminal organizations, ex-KGB, and the oligarchs was a very bad thing for the future of Russia and Europe. He didn't believe any of these guys would be interested in a society governed by rule of law or equitable relations with their neighbours. The love of money and power motivated these guys, and now that they'd taken over the country, it was just a matter of time before things got bad again.
And things got bad again. I wish I remembered that when I was in my 'Amcon' reading phase, and believed that 'nATo eXPansION' was behind all of Europe's problems on the eastern frontier.
@CEO:
"I'm still a bit puzzled on the *why* though."
I might be way off base here but, imo, the reason is relatively simple. The ex-KGB lieutenant colonel has recurring wet dreams of returning *all* of the previous Soviet Union countries back into Russian hegemony. Putin is craving "the good old days."
fnord
A.k.a. "Make Russia/CCCP Great Again".
I agree this is part of the motivation, but Putin also wants to prevent successful democratic/westernized ex-Soviet republics next door which might invite questions or risk to his regime.
I think this is a big part of it, along with all those ex-soviet republics and non-Russian citizens of Russia. I have to think there's a bit of, "expand or die" in the Russian thinking. Their heartland is open to invasion from many sides, so expansion to defensible borders is something I see cited from time to time.
Beyond that, if they don't look strong and vibrant, how long are they going to keep Siberia from China? I heard that China is already doing a soft invasion of sorts. A weak Russia is going to lose and lose and lose on front after front.
Sounds like the MAGA folks here