A tied race nationally is about a 90% chance of a Republican electoral college win. That is stressful. If Biden wins by 4 points he could still lose the electoral college easily. So Biden needs to outperform in the three midwest states. There is no realistic path to victory without Pennsylvania. And even if he gets that he has to get 2 o…
A tied race nationally is about a 90% chance of a Republican electoral college win. That is stressful. If Biden wins by 4 points he could still lose the electoral college easily. So Biden needs to outperform in the three midwest states. There is no realistic path to victory without Pennsylvania. And even if he gets that he has to get 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin. Nevada looks like a lost cause and Georgia might be too. What could really help is if 2022 has a similar trend where Biden/Democrats do better in states of the midwest. Hard to repeat that in a presidential election to the same degree because turnout will be higher.
A tied race nationally is about a 90% chance of a Republican electoral college win. That is stressful. If Biden wins by 4 points he could still lose the electoral college easily. So Biden needs to outperform in the three midwest states. There is no realistic path to victory without Pennsylvania. And even if he gets that he has to get 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin. Nevada looks like a lost cause and Georgia might be too. What could really help is if 2022 has a similar trend where Biden/Democrats do better in states of the midwest. Hard to repeat that in a presidential election to the same degree because turnout will be higher.