I think the concept of nuclear deterrence is overrated. For example, Ukraine invaded a region of Russia. Russia has nukes. Russia has not deployed its nukes against Ukraine. Afghanistan hosted the terrorists who killed more than 2000 Americans on 9/11. We did not nuke them. Saddam Hussein, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and most recently, Iran, have all attacked Israel. Israel has nukes. Israel did not nuke any of those foes.
Maybe the outcome of using these weapons is so massive that it deters their use by itself. The consequences would be catastrophic. Most leaders do not want catastrophes.
Also, that last line of the article....I really do try to not have an extreme amount of contempt for my follow citizens who voted for Trump but it's impossible not to.
JVL--first, I love your candor in pointing out the apathy of your readers. However, I can only speak for myself in that I am overwhelmed and frequently anxious that I can't read and analyze everything in my inbox from independent media. You keep me informed in things (like nuclear deterrence) about which I have little understanding and don't have the intellectual resources to hazard an insightful opinion. I would simplistically comment that, without the support of our failing democracy, it would be wise for the E.U. to stick together on all fronts: be they nuclear submarine fleets and nuclear proliferation- the umbrella needs to be as extensive and inclusive as realistically possible. Thank you for all you do.
Having used Palintr, it is very frightening to think the oligarchs have been invitied in by the Army...I think the Army Futures Command lacks the expertise to see over the technical horizon...making these fools "reserve" LTCs is an absolute appalling and an insult to those LTCs who earnwed their way to that rank....
at this point it is getting harder to determine which parts of the government haven't been tainted or polluted by magats
An independent nuclear Europe presents unique challenges for the US down the road...
I described in detail your deconstruction of the Army’s bumbling into the welcoming arms of Peter Thiel to my friend who is the Deputy of Operations at Marine Corps Command and Staff College. We discussed it in terms of the Marine Corps Force Design 2030.
See … we’re with you! Now, turn that frown upside down!
I DID like yesterday's article on Palantir's capture of the Army. You are right - you did warn us. I have been worried about this trend of outsourcing government functions for years. We are moving toward the situation where the Congress may declare war and the President tells the SECDEF to issue an RFP. Keep up the good work.
How does all this work with how the UK strategic deterrent uses Trident (US) missiles?
On the time scales you are talking about it is hard to imagine what the world would look like.
Also, on your note about tactical nuclear weapons. Yes, that pretty accurately sums up what at least some theoreticians think about them. But I'd caution that we (thankfully) have never fought a war with those weapons and that the track record of people thinking about future wars isn't a great one. So I am most doubtful that they will have the effects anticipated.
And I personally feel that tactical nuclear weapons are amongst the most idiotic inventions ever.
I sincerely hope that this Trump term convinces Americans to pull their heads out of their asses and turn things around. I know it will take a long time for the world to trust us again (hell, even for me to trust us again) and Europe needs to take action in the meantime. The idea of America remaining what it has become just makes me so physically ill I can't think beyond that.
I wonder if anyone else feels stuck in an odd mix of proud to be an American and willing to stand up for everything America has always been while also being ashamed to be an American and wanting to convey heartfelt apologies to the rest of the world for what we've become. I wave an American flag at protests in honor of what I refuse to surrender. This is my country, damnit! This is my country? Damnit!
I didn't comment yesterday partly because I simply didn't have anything productive to say and partly because I'm massively overloaded with worry about right now, so worry about the future disaster lurking is just too much at the moment. I appreciate the heads-up and it's now somewhere in the mix of screams in my head. I have no doubt there will come a day not too far in the future when I see the fallout of this and say yet again, "JVL is always right."
JVL thank you for this, AND for the Palantir piece. Please keep posting about deterrence and defense.
I think the concept of nuclear deterrence is overrated. For example, Ukraine invaded a region of Russia. Russia has nukes. Russia has not deployed its nukes against Ukraine. Afghanistan hosted the terrorists who killed more than 2000 Americans on 9/11. We did not nuke them. Saddam Hussein, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and most recently, Iran, have all attacked Israel. Israel has nukes. Israel did not nuke any of those foes.
Maybe the outcome of using these weapons is so massive that it deters their use by itself. The consequences would be catastrophic. Most leaders do not want catastrophes.
Seems tRump is strong arming his MAGAts that voice dissent. Now they know what a tyrant does. STEP ON ANY BACK TALK. YOU WANTED THIS A#!@#!
That last line, “America is no longer capable of such things…” says it all.
I personally like the spinach.
Keep shoveling it.
Also, that last line of the article....I really do try to not have an extreme amount of contempt for my follow citizens who voted for Trump but it's impossible not to.
#2 The rest of Europe helps fund French and British nuclear expansion.
Please don't forget Canada is NATO.
Love your stuff and your straightforward look at the world.
JVL--first, I love your candor in pointing out the apathy of your readers. However, I can only speak for myself in that I am overwhelmed and frequently anxious that I can't read and analyze everything in my inbox from independent media. You keep me informed in things (like nuclear deterrence) about which I have little understanding and don't have the intellectual resources to hazard an insightful opinion. I would simplistically comment that, without the support of our failing democracy, it would be wise for the E.U. to stick together on all fronts: be they nuclear submarine fleets and nuclear proliferation- the umbrella needs to be as extensive and inclusive as realistically possible. Thank you for all you do.
I didn't eat the spinach, but I paid for it...
Having used Palintr, it is very frightening to think the oligarchs have been invitied in by the Army...I think the Army Futures Command lacks the expertise to see over the technical horizon...making these fools "reserve" LTCs is an absolute appalling and an insult to those LTCs who earnwed their way to that rank....
at this point it is getting harder to determine which parts of the government haven't been tainted or polluted by magats
An independent nuclear Europe presents unique challenges for the US down the road...
I like spinach.
Not to be too mercenary, but the EU defense industry stock is going to pay off handsomely for those who get in now.
I described in detail your deconstruction of the Army’s bumbling into the welcoming arms of Peter Thiel to my friend who is the Deputy of Operations at Marine Corps Command and Staff College. We discussed it in terms of the Marine Corps Force Design 2030.
See … we’re with you! Now, turn that frown upside down!
That’s better!
I DID like yesterday's article on Palantir's capture of the Army. You are right - you did warn us. I have been worried about this trend of outsourcing government functions for years. We are moving toward the situation where the Congress may declare war and the President tells the SECDEF to issue an RFP. Keep up the good work.
How does all this work with how the UK strategic deterrent uses Trident (US) missiles?
On the time scales you are talking about it is hard to imagine what the world would look like.
Also, on your note about tactical nuclear weapons. Yes, that pretty accurately sums up what at least some theoreticians think about them. But I'd caution that we (thankfully) have never fought a war with those weapons and that the track record of people thinking about future wars isn't a great one. So I am most doubtful that they will have the effects anticipated.
And I personally feel that tactical nuclear weapons are amongst the most idiotic inventions ever.
I sincerely hope that this Trump term convinces Americans to pull their heads out of their asses and turn things around. I know it will take a long time for the world to trust us again (hell, even for me to trust us again) and Europe needs to take action in the meantime. The idea of America remaining what it has become just makes me so physically ill I can't think beyond that.
I wonder if anyone else feels stuck in an odd mix of proud to be an American and willing to stand up for everything America has always been while also being ashamed to be an American and wanting to convey heartfelt apologies to the rest of the world for what we've become. I wave an American flag at protests in honor of what I refuse to surrender. This is my country, damnit! This is my country? Damnit!
I didn't comment yesterday partly because I simply didn't have anything productive to say and partly because I'm massively overloaded with worry about right now, so worry about the future disaster lurking is just too much at the moment. I appreciate the heads-up and it's now somewhere in the mix of screams in my head. I have no doubt there will come a day not too far in the future when I see the fallout of this and say yet again, "JVL is always right."