

Catching up: Itās Steve Scalise vs Jim Jordan vs⦠Donald Trump?
Itās unclear if McCarthy himself has sanctioned their work. One source familiar with their efforts described the staff as āconsulting and providing guidanceā to Jordanās operation, which they distinguished from an endorsement. Jordanās top competition is Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a longtime McCarthy deputy.
Scalise vs. Jordan vs. 218 - POLITICO
Those whoāve covered McCarthy and Scalise know thereās no love lost between the two men ā or their staffs, for that matter. Their rivalry dates back to at least 2018, when Scalise expressed interest in succeeding PAUL RYAN as speaker if McCarthy couldnāt get the votes. The relationship never fully recovered.
Digging into Jim Jordan's candidacy ā Punchbowl
To be clear, weāre skeptical that either Jordan or his main rival, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, can garner the 218 votes necessary to become speaker. That doesnāt mean they wonāt; it just means itāll be very difficult. We also think that the speaker election could stretch beyond next Wednesdayās current deadline.
The GOP armed its bazooka caucus. What could go wrong? ā NBC
Republicans now use powerful procedural weapons ā impeachment, removal of the speaker and election certification ā to thwart majority rule and disrupt democratic institutions.
Steve Bannon Helped Stoke the McCarthy Ouster, Boosting Gaetz and Rebels - The New York Times
The former Trump adviser has helped create the spectacle of G.O.P. dysfunction, using it to build his own following and those of the right-wing House rebels who took down Kevin McCarthy.
House GOP quietly panics over how to escape its self-inflicted mess ā Axios
Expectations are at rock-bottom among House Republicans that their civil war will be resolved by the speaker vote on Wednesdayā¦. There are way too many potential blowup points for this leadership vacuum to be easily resolved, thanks to a rump caucus of Republicans who proved they'll break with the overwhelming majority of their colleagues.
And then thereās the fan fic about The Orange Speaker in waiting: āDonald Trump to Be Nominated for Next Speaker of the House.ā MTG thinks itās fabulous idea:
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Trump Himself seems to sort of like the idea too. Via Mediaite: āTrump Shares Posts Pitching Himself as Speaker and Calling Kevin McCarthy a Traitor.ā
Thereās. Just. One. Problem. Here is the GOPās own Rule 26:
Rule 26āTemporary Step Aside of a Member of Leadership who is Indicted
(a) A member of the Republican Leadership shall step aside if indicted for a felony for which a sentence of two or more years imprisonment may be imposed.
(b) If a member of the Republican Elected Leadership is indicted, the Republican Conference shall meet and elect a Member to temporarily serve in that position.
To be sure the GOP could always change the rule if they really want Trump. But that would be⦠awkward. But, as weāve seen, rules are malleable things these days.
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BONUS: Ben Wittes plays out some Game Theory of a Vacant Speakership in his Dog Shirt daily newsletter.
Writes Ben:
Letās start with the basic facts:
The overwhelming majority of House Republicans were satisfied with the status quo under McCarthy, but the Crazed Slavering Jackal Caucus (CSJC) has enough votes to prevent the majority of Republicans from doing as they please.
The CSJC is not of fixed size. It fluctuated in size back in January and stood at eight at the time of McCarthyās ouster. It will grow and shrink depending on the issue and the person nominated as speaker.
The Democrats do not have a blocking majority on their own, but they have shown extreme discipline and thus do have a blocking majority in combination with the CSJC. They can be expected, absent some inducement or other extraordinary circumstances, to vote against any Republican nominee for speaker.
Nobody can become speaker without either satisfying some portion of the CSJC or attracting Democratic support.
It is unclear how anyone elected speaker with Republican votes alone can expect to remain speaker after he or she makes the concessions necessary to keep the government open in mid-November, as the CSJC regards all such concessions as anathema.
Anyone elected speaker with Democratic votes will be expected to make significant concessions of some kind to Democratic policy and organizational priorities.
Exit take: It can always get worse. But you knew that.
Happy Thursday.
How about some more shots?
In case you hadnāt noticed, weāve launched a YouTube version of the Shots. At this point, Iām not sure if weāll be doing this very day, but I have to say, itās kind of fun. Hereās yesterdayās shot:
And hereās Tuesdayās:
And Monday:
And last weekās inaugural shot:
Want even more? Make sure you check out another new offering ā Timās Takes on YouTube.
Tim OāBrien: the Hollow Men
You can listen to the whole thing here. Or watch it if youāre a video person.
Quick Hits
1. The Republicans Who Are Treating Ukraine as Their Hostage
Will Saletan, in todayās Bulwark:
On Friday, McCarthy warned that the House might reject the Senateās CRāresulting in a government shutdownāif the Senate were to put āUkraine over Americaā by including aid for Kyiv. And on Saturday, after the House passed its Ukraine-free CR, McCarthy took another shot at the Senate and Ukraine. āWhat the Senate wanted to do was focus on Ukraine in front of America,ā he asserted. āI understand our responsibilities, but Iām going to put America first.ā
MCCARTHYāS ATTACKS SIGNIFIED a new stage of the GOPās turn against Reaganism. The party has always had an isolationist wing. But now Republican leaders are yielding to, and in some cases exploiting, the spread of isolationism in the Republican base.
2. Kevin McCarthyās legacy as House speaker is a damaged House and office
McCarthyās leadership ā if you can call it leadership ā was notably rudderless and chaotic. On his watch, the country came to the brink of what could have been a catastrophic default on its debt. His hard-right members regularly humiliated him by blocking vital GOP-backed measures from even coming to a vote on the House floor ā among them, recently, one to fund the Pentagon. It was only with the help of Democrats that he managed to muster enough votes Saturday to prevent a government shutdown.
And yet, he continued to try to appease the hard-liners, including by unilaterally opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden based on allegations ā but no evidence ā that the president had benefited from the business dealings of his son Hunter.
In a grievance-filled news conference after he announced his decision not to try to get his job back, McCarthy said, with dark humor: āI made history, didnāt I?ā Indeed, he has left a mark ā a scar on the institution and the office ā that will be hard to erase.
3. The Gaping Hole in the Center of the Electorate
John Judis, in the Liberal Patriot:
As late as January 1, 2008, the percentage of Democrats exceeded that of independents as well as Republicans, but since then, the percentage of independents has been growing at the expense of both parties.
In March 2023, it hit an all-time high (since Gallup has been asking the question in 1988) of 49 percent. Republicans and Democrats were tied at 25 percent. Of course, when these independents are asked what party they lean to, Democrats and Republicans split the vote, but that's not the point.
The point is that growing percentages of the electorate are alienated from both parties. They might "lean" to one rather than the other, but that is not the same as being hardline partisans that are culturally identified with one party rather than the other. If anything, the cultural identification with the parties is diminishing.
Cheap Shots
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Trump has never worked a day in his life, and being the speaker is extremely hard work. It also takes strategy and intelligence that are simply beyond him. I don't think he has any chance of being elected to the position, but if he was, I think it'd be just the thing to end his miserable life.
The GOP's turn to isolationism is worse than a turn to isolationism. It is a conditional turn, because at the same time the party is undermining support for Ukraine, they are openly lusting for an armed invasion of Mexico -- hardly the stuff of a true isolationist party. No, what they are for is might makes right, or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Fascist State."