People are focusing on the wrong things in these GOP presidential polls. You have an ex-President essentially running for re-election who has 100% name ID and nearly half the Republican electorate wants someone else. That's not good for Trump. Trump lost the election in 2020 because he had about 10% of Republican leaning voters voting ag…
People are focusing on the wrong things in these GOP presidential polls. You have an ex-President essentially running for re-election who has 100% name ID and nearly half the Republican electorate wants someone else. That's not good for Trump. Trump lost the election in 2020 because he had about 10% of Republican leaning voters voting against him, while Biden's cross-over rate was about half that. That made the difference in several swing states. Trump has to hold at least 90% of Republican-leaning voters in 2024 for him to have a chance. But the 10% crossover number will almost certainly be much bigger this time around and that is confirmed with these Republican polls that people think are good for Trump. Those are not good poll numbers for a person seeking re-election. They're really bad.
People are focusing on the wrong things in these GOP presidential polls. You have an ex-President essentially running for re-election who has 100% name ID and nearly half the Republican electorate wants someone else. That's not good for Trump. Trump lost the election in 2020 because he had about 10% of Republican leaning voters voting against him, while Biden's cross-over rate was about half that. That made the difference in several swing states. Trump has to hold at least 90% of Republican-leaning voters in 2024 for him to have a chance. But the 10% crossover number will almost certainly be much bigger this time around and that is confirmed with these Republican polls that people think are good for Trump. Those are not good poll numbers for a person seeking re-election. They're really bad.