Seven Lessons from Joe Biden’s Candidacy
The Democratic party is healthy. The Republican party is not.
1. Seven Lessons
Before we start: I did a YouTube thing about Biden last night, if you’re interested.
Now let’s go.
(1) The Democratic party is a healthy institution.
On the night of June 27, the various power centers within the Democratic party began a difficult conversation: Was Joe Biden still capable of running a vigorous campaign?
Over three weeks the party reached a diffuse—if not unanimous—consensus: He was not. This consensus was the product of all levels of the party: Elder statesmen such as Nancy Pelosi, elected Democrats analyzing their own future prospects, donors making decisions about spending, and the main body of public opinion among Democratic voters.
Once this consensus was reached, the various power centers began a dialogue with the party’s leader, President Biden. The party expressed its choice. Biden pushed back. The party took up the question again and, after due consideration, held firm.
Joe Biden then stepped aside for the good of the nation.
This is how healthy institutions are supposed to work.
At The Bulwark there has been a lot of drama over the last three weeks. We told you what we really thought, even though it meant making some people mad.
Our mission is to have honest and real conversations. Because that’s what healthy institutions do.
Right here, in the Bulwark community, those conversations were great. I mean, they were often painful. But they were always civil and conducted in good faith.
How special is this community? We had one member who was so disappointed in us that he cancelled his subscription and then came back to the comments every day to try to convince others to cancel their subscriptions, too. And he did it passionately, but with respect.
Where do you find people like that on the internet? It was amazing.
The coming weeks are going to be full of history. Come and ride through it with us.
2. The process which elevated Kamala Harris was sensible.
The Democratic party made another institutional decision in parallel with the Biden question: It vetted Kamala Harris.
This subroutine executed in the background, but it was active. Democratic voters began to consider her as the nominee and polling showed that they were comfortable with her. Party elders evaluated her fitness. Donors and elected Democrats took her measure. The fact that no anti-Harris groundswell—or even boomlet—emerged is proof that the party decided that Harris was an acceptable nominee.
After Biden blessed Harris on Sunday afternoon, the party coalesced around her in much the way it did Biden after the New Hampshire primary in 2020.
The Democratic party will enter the election more unified than it had been pre-debate.
3. Kamala Harris can run as an insurgent, but with the advantages of an incumbent.
The largest advantage of incumbency is that a candidate does not have to take base-pleasing positions during a primary campaign that can hurt him during a general election.
Because of the extraordinary nature of her ascendence, Harris possesses this advantage. She will carry nearly every advantage of incumbency and yet she can credibly position herself as this election’s change agent.
4. Trump is holding the age bomb.
The Trump campaign spent two years creating a political bomb concerning old age. They assumed that they could plant this bomb at the feet of Joe Biden.
Trump is now the one holding the age bomb. He is not only a full generation older than Harris—everything about him looks geriatric by comparison. From his gait to his bronzed-over pallor; from the way he rambles and gets lost in sentences to his inability to keep facts straight.
Every split screen now makes Trump look old and decrepit by comparison.
5. There was enormous pent-up demand among Democrats for a younger leader.
In the first 24 hours, Kamala Harris raised over $100 million from small-dollar donors.
Sit with that for a moment. $100 million.
That’s more money than any Democrat has ever raised in a single day. It’s twice as much as Trump raised following his felony conviction. If this doesn’t snap your head back, it should.
Because it’s as good a proxy as you’ll find for excitement.
It will be several days until we have polling with a more detailed view of Harris’s support from Democratic voters, but it is already clear that she will perform much better than Biden has within her party.
Here’s my advice: You should be open to the idea that Harris could ride a wave of excitement and passion that absolutely no one was seeing until Biden stepped aside. I’m talking Obama ‘08-levels of energy.
It’s not a given. But it’s in the realm of the possible. Keep your eyes peeled for it.
6. The Republican party is a failed state.
At the debate, Donald Trump also demonstrated (again) that he is unfit for office. He rambled and lied incoherently. He is a convicted felon. A jury found him guilty of sexual assault. He has said he wants to be a “dictator” and that he wants to “terminate” parts of the Constitution. He selected as his running mate a man who advised disobeying orders from the Supreme Court and forcing a constitutional crisis.
Until last week there was nothing stopping the Republican party from forcing Trump off the ticket. The party elders and elected officials could have demanded that Trump step aside. Republican voters could have said that they had no confidence in his ability to govern. Donors could have closed their wallets.
But the plain fact is that not one single Republican called on Trump to step aside.
Not one.
Why? Because the various precincts of the Republican party understand that they hold no power—at all—over Trump. They could not ask him to withdraw from the race. Even broaching the subject would be grounds for excommunication from the party.
The Democratic party is a functioning institution, with checks and balances; constituencies and power structures. Like any institution, it is amorphous and its decision making is mostly organic.
The Republican party is an autocracy where the only thing that matters is the will of the leader. All power flows through him. All decisions are made by him. There are no competing power centers—only vassal states overseen by his noblemen.
7. Harris is an underdog.
One of the reasons the last three weeks have been so difficult is because Democrats were not choosing between a “good” outcome and a “bad” outcome.
Those sorts of choices are easy.
Instead, Democrats were tasked with deciding between least-bad options. Humans rebel against the idea of “least-bad.” When faced with choices, we want to believe that at least one of them is “good.”
When the first real Harris-vs.-Trump polling comes out next week we’ll see how big of a hole she’s in. But unlike Biden, Harris has the ability to spend the next three months on offense, all day, every day. If she can deliver the goods, she has a puncher’s chance.
2. In Praise of Biden
A slight push-back against those who believe Biden took too long to step aside:
It was three and a half weeks from the debate to Biden pulling out. That’s it.
Joe Biden is the president, but he’s also just a man. Coming to a decision like this one—an unprecedented decision—is hard. There’s a lot to weigh and there’s a tremendous responsibility to get it right.
My own view is that Biden made the call basically as quickly as possible. He couldn’t have done it the week of the NATO summit. Then Trump was shot in the ear. Then there was the Republican convention. To my mind, Biden’s timing on this was optimal, actually.
Nothing about Joe Biden’s presidency was inevitable. Not his candidacy. Not his victory over Trump. Not his withdrawal from reelection.
At nearly every turn, Biden did the right thing for America.
His legacy is assured. He will be remembered as one of the great modern presidents.
I said this last night and I’ll say it again. History had its eye on Joe Biden, and he met the moment. He did his part. Now it’s up to Kamala Harris and us to do ours.
This is the moment. Live it with us.
3. Revealed Preferences
In the coming weeks we will find out if the people who said, “I hate Trump, but Biden is too old” really meant it.
Will they find some new excuse for why they have to vote for Trump? Will they become unconcerned about the risks of old age and cognitive decline in a president?
I’m not talking about partisan public personalities on Twitter. I’m talking about swing voters: The kind of Trump-to-Biden voters who have been backsliding in Trump’s direction.
Sarah’s focus groups are going to be absolutely vital for understanding how this group thinks. Don’t miss them.
Lesson 8: Nancy Pelosi is one brass-balls operator. I have deep regard for the President and for the gravity of the decision he made, and I pray that history will offer him a just regard--but make no mistake about it, if the Speaker doesn't take the knife, yesterday doesn't happen. She is shrewd and ruthless and relentless in her defense of the Republic, and is in her own class when it comes to handling Trump like the sad little puppet he is. We owe her every bit as much as Uncle Joe.
It's so weird to feel stoked after months of so much dread. Even after hearing the news of Biden dropping out this weekend I thought to myself "well, we don't know if the dems will unify behind Kamala yet." All of that went away in the last 24 hours or so when it became clear that the party is going to be behind her full swing. The party is behaving like a healthy institution. We have a *real* chance at not just beating Trump in November now, but making history along the way. All of the points made above about Harris are true, but the one that's missing is that she will also be a history-making first woman president at a time when women really need some uplifting after having their rights stripped away by a billionaire criminal misogynist who rigged the supreme court that took those rights away from them. I hope they get that uplift this November, and I fully support Kamala as our next commander in chief.
I've long called for Biden to drop out of the race, well before the bad debate and alongside AB and Bill back when they were the only two I could think of who held this position publicly. I didn't expect Biden to drop out up until last week when the pressure within the party heads (Pelosi, Jeffries, Schumet, et al.) started really pressing him behind closed doors. I put the odds at 70/30 last week that he would step down. Biden has now clearly shown that he was willing to put country and party over his own ambition. This is the second time he's "stood down"--the first being when he didn't run when Hillary ran in 2016. Beyond his impressive legislative record, his defense of NATO, his keeping Trump out of office in 2020, his hearing out of the country and deciding to put their voices over his own determinations is now the icing on the cake. I can now legit say that he is the best president in my lifetime (so far!). You're the man Joe. Thank you for keeping it real and doing the right thing, even when it didn't feel good to do so. The torch has been passed, now it's time to carry it forward and make it count in November. Here's to winning this thing and putting Trump in the dustbin of history where he rightfully belongs.