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Jesse Ewiak's avatar

My takes on this has been consistent - the most likely result is 2020 redux - pretty decent Biden PV win, somewhat narrow EV win.

But, the second most likely result is not a Trump win.

It's that we are not in the middle of the biggest racial and age-related relaignment since the Civil Rights Act _and_ as seen with Haley voters still voting for her months after she's just in her nice, big house talking to rich people all day, and Dobbs, that there's way more drop-off in suburban voters, and Biden actually wins a quasi-landslide - (think 55-42-3, but only NC flips and TX is really close).

I also think there's an better than 0 chance we hold onto the Senate 50-50 and in that scenario, the 50th Senator is a much more reasonable Jon Tester than Sinema or Manchin.

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Julia Cooper's avatar

I agree. I think we’ll do better than 50-50 in the Senate. We’ll pick up decent # seats in House, enough of a margin to overcome far left opposition. Glass half full.

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Migs's avatar

No chance Trump wins the popular vote. The boat set sail a decade ago.

I’m still worried about the EC though

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Kim M Murphy's avatar

I don’t think the GOP has won the PV since Bush 1.0.

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Migs's avatar

2004 bush 2

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Eva Seifert's avatar

Then he screwed it up with Hurricane Katrina and the Iraq incursion/war.

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