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Janneke's avatar

While listening to Simon, I was transported back to 2016, hearing much of the same commentary and vibes that were going to bring the election to Clinton. At that time, I felt and heard the people around me wanting to vote for tRump. The media portrayed them as “outliers” and low information voters.

That same vibe did not exist as much in 2020 (Covid probably). But it’s back this year…the rhetoric that our lives are SO bad under Biden is making tRump look like a winner. These people only vote for change. ANY change. They do not care, or have convinced themselves that Biden is worse than anyone else on the planet.

Ask Bill Barr, Chris Sununu etc

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

I feel compelled to respond to this. A few points: 1) no election is like any other. This is 2024 not 2016. 2) Trump is a far more damaged and degraded candidate than he was in 2016. J6 and Dobbs have happened. He is not the same, the country is not the same. 3) In 2016 he had just had a very bad midterm. We've been winning elections all over the country these last several years. 4) The country is better off and we should be able to over the course of the campaign to get enough people there to win. In politics objective reality and truth matters, and it is just simply true that things are far better today.

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Different drummer's avatar

Enjoyed the pod; Tim keeps hitting it out of the park w/ his selection of guests!

"The country is better off and we should be able to over the course of the campaign to get enough people there to win. In politics objective reality and truth matters..." IMO, one of three key problems we're facing in our country today is that "objective reality and truth" do NOT matter to so many. (The other two are that many are uneducated, and that lots of folks know exactly who/what TFG is and WANT that.)

A huge chunk of the population not only doesn't CARE about reality and truth; they actively deny it when they don't like it. I don't know how much clearer it could be that the 2020 election was free and fair and yet....

My father held local elected offices for most of my growing up; after I left home he was head of the Dem party in our county for a time. But my parents are prime examples of both the success of The Southern Strategy, and the effectiveness of mainlining Fox Not News for years on end: they continue to deny that Biden won fair and square. They are far from alone. (And they're not dumb: my father used to enjoy reading our World Book encyclopedias from A to Z - literally.)

Ditto for voter's opinions of the job Biden has done and all the measurements by which the country is doing pretty well. That's why so many of us agree when JVL says he feels like he's taking crazy pills. It's why Sarah - who I believe knows as much about voters as anyone in the country - continues to be very concerned.

I hope w/ every cell of my being that Simon is right, and that the campaign will be able to effectively educate persuadable voters. But there is a long way to go, there continue to be extremely troubling indicators of voter sentiment, and I too am afraid of feeling hopeful. 2016 was traumatic; I don't want to be blindsided again.

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Barbara D's avatar

Thank you for joining Tim today. Your conversation has the fight for democracy on fire, so to speak. I've shared this Podcast with the phrase "must listen" to over 20 people and also with the exec committee of the local Dems as well as to the National Dems. A second listen for me will take place too. Along with pen and paper for notes! We need your clear voice more, in addition you were clear about what we can "do"! I love the phrase, we're going to kick his ass." 🤗🇺🇸

Thanks!

B

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Janneke's avatar

Thank you for your response, and of course no two elections are alike. However, if, as you say he’s a damaged candidate (he is) and the GOP is a party in shambles ( it is), the fact that he’s polling as well as he is makes me believe that the voter isn’t “absorbing” those ideas. The voters are not discerning any reality, but voting grievance and change.

I think the democrats are still appealing to the educated voters, leaving behind the voters who do not see that the country is better off. Rightly or wrongly, any jump in gas is the Dems fault. Eggs cost $$$ due to a bird flu, Biden’s fault. Until the low information voter is informed (I’m not calling them stupid, just uninformed) they will always vote for change. And unfortunately, due to lack of basic civics education the group of uninformed voters grows each election cycle. Dems would do well to dump campaign dollars into various comparison/low key educational ads.

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Yes, we have work to do to connect our success as a country to Joe Biden. But this is what a campaign is for, and selling something to voters that is true is usually a lot easier than selling something that isn't. Additionally, voters do see things as being better in their own states and communities; they have very high levels of life, job and income satisfaction; and Democrats see as the economy as strong. This notion that people are down on the economy and voting on that just isnt the case or we would not have been so successful in recent elections; and read here for more on how the idea that people are down on the economy or just reflecting their "lived experience" is wrong IMHO - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-economy-is-remarkably-strong. We cannot allow people's understandings be considered to be more true than what is objectively true, particularly as people's understandings are so influenced by a massive GOP noise machine. We have to hold true every day to the idea that there is on objective reality out there or we will be truly lost.

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Chris Foreman's avatar

Love what you say and agree wholeheartedly but we need a Plan B. Mine is Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker!

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Different drummer's avatar

Agree 100% that "we have to hold true...;" but it's a non-starter when someone (and there are SO many!) insists that 2+2 does NOT = 4, and that anyone who says it does is not to be trusted. I just don't see anywhere to go from there.

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