I've been expecting an imminent collapse of the Ukrainian positions around the western edge of Bakhmut for about the last month. The recent developments have surprised me on the upside. I expected that the need of Ukraine to conserve manpower would lead to an eventual pullout. I'm not so sure that's the case anymore, especially if they a…
I've been expecting an imminent collapse of the Ukrainian positions around the western edge of Bakhmut for about the last month. The recent developments have surprised me on the upside. I expected that the need of Ukraine to conserve manpower would lead to an eventual pullout. I'm not so sure that's the case anymore, especially if they already have 9 brigades on standby for the upcoming offensive. Getting the Russians to back off of the southern and northern highways along the western edge of Bakhmut opens up the logistics that any remaining defenders would need to hold in place and continue to attrite Russian manpower. I think they may be able to hold there longer now. Unlike in Mariupol around the Azovstal plant, the Ukrainians don't have their backs against the ocean in Bakhmut, and with less pressure on the highway supply lines they've at a minimum bought themselves more time there. Again, incredible that they've managed to hold what's left of that terrain for as long as they have and I think they'll continue to hold out there as a means of keeping the Russian forces away from where they'll ultimately launch their counteroffensive--which I expect to target Melitipol and areas west of there to cut off Crimea and use it as a bargaining chip.
On Storm Shadow, this weapons system--assuming they'll get good quantities of them--will aid significantly in the counteroffensive they plan to launch, and I think it has a large role in why they're waiting a bit longer. It has to do with battlespace shaping around targeting logistics. In all of their best ground assaults and terrain growth, Ukraine has first knocked out logistical support for the Russian defenders they had to take on during assault. It's an attrition-first, surprise assault-second strategy and it has worked exceptionally well every time. They did this in Kharkiv and drove Russian forces out via assault. They did this in Kherson and didn't even need to fire shots to retake that ground because the Russian defenders were so depleted of ammunition, food, and fuel. I think we'll start seeing logistics strikes in advance of wherever they plan to launch this coming counteroffensive, and the Storm Shadow system will probably play a large role in that strategy. I'm hoping that the UK breaking the ice on long-range strike weapons gives the Biden admin less pause with respect to supplying the Ukrainians with ATACMS for the HIMARS system. Long-range strike weapons are one of those key elements of battlespace shaping that will determine how well the counteroffensive goes.
All signs in Ukraine have been encouraging this week, and I hope we continue to see more of that. Slava Ukraini!
There are a shit ton of Russian citizens living in Crimea since 2014, many were intentionally moved there to firm up Russia's claim of ownership on the peninsula. If Ukraine surrounds the city from its west and destroys the bridge over the Kerch Strait, all of those Russian citizens are now trapped. They become bargaining chips. Ukraine offers safe passage for them back to Russia if Russian forces leave Luhansk/Donestk. It would also be major egg on the face of Putin if Crimea gets cut off even if negotiations don't begin right away. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is stationed there at Sevastopol. Sorry I wasn't very clear about that part.
Ah, now I understand and I agree with this assessment. I also hope that the land bridge gets cut off for all of these trickle down problems it causes for Russia
You don't necessarily need a Navy to take Sevastopol if your land forces are well within range. They can hit Sevastopol with Storm Shadow and HIMARS once they start making land gains and bring those weapon systems within range of Russian ships and their supply hub. Ukraine already took out the Russian flagship there (the Moskva) with anti-ship missile strikes--likely a Neptune missile (or something similar) fired from land.
A navy would be useful as a platform for missile strikes from yet another direction, not necessarily to just take Sevastopol The Poles recently delivered 14 MIG 29's to pair with the Storm Shadows so in theory UKR could hit Sevastopol now.
I've been expecting an imminent collapse of the Ukrainian positions around the western edge of Bakhmut for about the last month. The recent developments have surprised me on the upside. I expected that the need of Ukraine to conserve manpower would lead to an eventual pullout. I'm not so sure that's the case anymore, especially if they already have 9 brigades on standby for the upcoming offensive. Getting the Russians to back off of the southern and northern highways along the western edge of Bakhmut opens up the logistics that any remaining defenders would need to hold in place and continue to attrite Russian manpower. I think they may be able to hold there longer now. Unlike in Mariupol around the Azovstal plant, the Ukrainians don't have their backs against the ocean in Bakhmut, and with less pressure on the highway supply lines they've at a minimum bought themselves more time there. Again, incredible that they've managed to hold what's left of that terrain for as long as they have and I think they'll continue to hold out there as a means of keeping the Russian forces away from where they'll ultimately launch their counteroffensive--which I expect to target Melitipol and areas west of there to cut off Crimea and use it as a bargaining chip.
On Storm Shadow, this weapons system--assuming they'll get good quantities of them--will aid significantly in the counteroffensive they plan to launch, and I think it has a large role in why they're waiting a bit longer. It has to do with battlespace shaping around targeting logistics. In all of their best ground assaults and terrain growth, Ukraine has first knocked out logistical support for the Russian defenders they had to take on during assault. It's an attrition-first, surprise assault-second strategy and it has worked exceptionally well every time. They did this in Kharkiv and drove Russian forces out via assault. They did this in Kherson and didn't even need to fire shots to retake that ground because the Russian defenders were so depleted of ammunition, food, and fuel. I think we'll start seeing logistics strikes in advance of wherever they plan to launch this coming counteroffensive, and the Storm Shadow system will probably play a large role in that strategy. I'm hoping that the UK breaking the ice on long-range strike weapons gives the Biden admin less pause with respect to supplying the Ukrainians with ATACMS for the HIMARS system. Long-range strike weapons are one of those key elements of battlespace shaping that will determine how well the counteroffensive goes.
All signs in Ukraine have been encouraging this week, and I hope we continue to see more of that. Slava Ukraini!
What do you mean by bargaining chip? You think Ukraine will cut off Crimea but end up giving it up anyway to Russia?
There are a shit ton of Russian citizens living in Crimea since 2014, many were intentionally moved there to firm up Russia's claim of ownership on the peninsula. If Ukraine surrounds the city from its west and destroys the bridge over the Kerch Strait, all of those Russian citizens are now trapped. They become bargaining chips. Ukraine offers safe passage for them back to Russia if Russian forces leave Luhansk/Donestk. It would also be major egg on the face of Putin if Crimea gets cut off even if negotiations don't begin right away. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is stationed there at Sevastopol. Sorry I wasn't very clear about that part.
Ah, now I understand and I agree with this assessment. I also hope that the land bridge gets cut off for all of these trickle down problems it causes for Russia
Strategically Sevastopol is critical. Too bad Ukraine really doesn't have much of a Navy.
You don't necessarily need a Navy to take Sevastopol if your land forces are well within range. They can hit Sevastopol with Storm Shadow and HIMARS once they start making land gains and bring those weapon systems within range of Russian ships and their supply hub. Ukraine already took out the Russian flagship there (the Moskva) with anti-ship missile strikes--likely a Neptune missile (or something similar) fired from land.
A navy would be useful as a platform for missile strikes from yet another direction, not necessarily to just take Sevastopol The Poles recently delivered 14 MIG 29's to pair with the Storm Shadows so in theory UKR could hit Sevastopol now.
You more than made up for any confusion I felt.
I aim to please! :-D