"First: The Democrat, Tom Suozzi, won by about eight points, the same as Joe Biden’s margin in 2020."
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I wouldn't read too much into Mr Suozzi's victory. He was a popular three-term Representative who didn't run in '22 so he could run for Governor. IMO, in a face-off between Suozzi and Santos, Suozzi would have won easily, Suozzi didn…
"First: The Democrat, Tom Suozzi, won by about eight points, the same as Joe Biden’s margin in 2020."
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I wouldn't read too much into Mr Suozzi's victory. He was a popular three-term Representative who didn't run in '22 so he could run for Governor. IMO, in a face-off between Suozzi and Santos, Suozzi would have won easily, Suozzi didn't lose to Santos in the election of 2022, *he didn't run* -- so any projections or looks in the rear-view mirror would have no validity.
Plus, the special master's redrawn NY Congressional districts gerrymandered the map, giving the New GOP quite an advantage -- one that is obvious when comparing how Repubs in NY State did in comparison to the rest of the country:
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"The special master-drawn maps had consequential outcomes in the 2022 midterm elections. While still taking the House of Representatives, Republicans underperformed nationwide. But in New York, the GOP did exceedingly well, winning five out of the state’s six competitive House races, flipping four seats previously held by Democrats in the process, including the House Democrats’ campaign chief." https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2024/02/12/new-york-redistricting-panel-to-vote-on-new-house-maps
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One only needs to view the map in the link to see how red the state is now. It's important to note that the NY State Court of Appeals ordered the map to be redrawn prior to the 2024 elections (rejecting Dem gerrymandered maps earlier, throwing it to the special master: "after the same Court of Appeals struck down previous Democratic-drawn maps in the spring 2022, ruling them as procedurally unconstitutional and “drawn with impermissible partisan purpose.”" ibid), which will give the Dems a better chance of winning in NY and reflipping the House back to blue. This is *not* a prediction; I'm not a political expert and, imo, predictions are just guesswork made by experts.
"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
(If Trump's lawyers can submit a brief to SCOTUS beginning with a Yogi Berra quote, well then, we at the Bulwark certainly should feel comfortable doing so, too.)
"First: The Democrat, Tom Suozzi, won by about eight points, the same as Joe Biden’s margin in 2020."
-----
I wouldn't read too much into Mr Suozzi's victory. He was a popular three-term Representative who didn't run in '22 so he could run for Governor. IMO, in a face-off between Suozzi and Santos, Suozzi would have won easily, Suozzi didn't lose to Santos in the election of 2022, *he didn't run* -- so any projections or looks in the rear-view mirror would have no validity.
Plus, the special master's redrawn NY Congressional districts gerrymandered the map, giving the New GOP quite an advantage -- one that is obvious when comparing how Repubs in NY State did in comparison to the rest of the country:
-----
"The special master-drawn maps had consequential outcomes in the 2022 midterm elections. While still taking the House of Representatives, Republicans underperformed nationwide. But in New York, the GOP did exceedingly well, winning five out of the state’s six competitive House races, flipping four seats previously held by Democrats in the process, including the House Democrats’ campaign chief." https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2024/02/12/new-york-redistricting-panel-to-vote-on-new-house-maps
-----
One only needs to view the map in the link to see how red the state is now. It's important to note that the NY State Court of Appeals ordered the map to be redrawn prior to the 2024 elections (rejecting Dem gerrymandered maps earlier, throwing it to the special master: "after the same Court of Appeals struck down previous Democratic-drawn maps in the spring 2022, ruling them as procedurally unconstitutional and “drawn with impermissible partisan purpose.”" ibid), which will give the Dems a better chance of winning in NY and reflipping the House back to blue. This is *not* a prediction; I'm not a political expert and, imo, predictions are just guesswork made by experts.
fnord
"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
(If Trump's lawyers can submit a brief to SCOTUS beginning with a Yogi Berra quote, well then, we at the Bulwark certainly should feel comfortable doing so, too.)