I think it's too cautious. Look at Talarico. In 2018, there was no inflation crisis, Trump was underwater, but not like today with the generic House ballot poll ranging from Dem +5 to Dem +11. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/congressional-vote-2026.html I always thought Beto was too hippy for Texas independents, but he got to within 2% of beating Cruz. In many of these races, like Paxton for Senate or Chuck Edwards in NC-11, the Republicans are running scandal-ridden Magats while Dems are running pragmatic, relatable candidates. NC-11 is especially interesting because Trump criticized Biden's Helene FEMA response, then got in office and DOGE'd it.
Glad to see Ager on your list! For a history of his family - we think of them as “the Kennedy’s meet The Waltons” - see, “We Plow God’s Fields”, a biography of the family, by John Ager. Also book of photographs and history by me. I can send you both!
Jamie Ager was tied in a poll with sleaze ball Chuck Edwards in NC-11 before the worst scandals broke (hear the roar of Platner-like Republican outrage...nope, not a peep).
Tim, if donating to campaigns is generally such a waste of money, do you have any suggestions about other ways to donate, SPECIFICALLY TO HELP DEMS WIN HOUSE AND SENATE SEATS? 3 options come to mind.
1. Voter registration campaigns targeting "likely" Dems in swing districts and states.
2. GOTV efforts in those locations
3. Building up the democratic media echo machine to spread progressive messages 24/7 on Tic Toc,You Tube and other media favored by people who get their info without reading.
I have to disagree with Tim a little. Early money--as in now--is vital for funding staffing, and staying in the fight against overwhelming NRCC and SuperPAC money. Staffing data operations, GOTV and lit in every precinct, and paying the consultants are all pricey and necessary. Those still looking like they will have a chance in September as the race comes into focus will have an easier time, but right after a candidate announces and right after primaries are key times for early money.
Other things to do:
1. Join your local and state party and volunteer. See how well run they are and then donate
2. Volunteer to be an election worker so it isn't all election deniers showing up
3. If your district/state is not competitive, plan a vacation in one that is and volunteer for a week.
4. Find ways to drop little comments in casuals conversation to remind people of Iran war (Someone says it will take a couple of days for something, and you respond, "Is that calendar days or Iran war days?", inflation ("can you believe X costs Y now!"), rural hospitals closing, our nursing and child care shortages due to immigration changes ("I don't know what my family is going to do about senior/child care now that so many caregivers have been deported."), job prospects for college grads ("I hope my kid can earn enough to make the cost of college worthwhile. The stock market might be going up, but the job market is pretty slow.")
Just heard Patrick Schmidt of Kansas on That Trippi Show. He sounds like a worthwhile addition to Tim's List. He'd be a great guest too. His republican opponent live in FL!
Great list, and two potential adds — your buddy Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in WA-02. That’s still an R+5-7 district, and her opponent is not the insane Joe Kent this time.
Dark horse pick to keep your eye on is Seth Bodnar in MT Senate also running as an independent. Hunter and former Green Beret who should benefit from Daines’ bait-and-switch typical politician move to give the nomination to his hand-picked successor.
I would add Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia. Ossoff is likely set to be re-elected and recent polling has shown Keisha tied or ahead of the MAGA lunatics running to succeed Kemp as governor. Having a Democrat governor in Georgia in 2028 would be a big bulwark against the next big lie and attempt to steal a national election in the swing states.
I'm surprised Jen Kiggans VA-02 did not appear on your list. The district has flipped back and forth repeatedly in the 30 years I have lived in southeast Virginia.
Thank you, Tim, for being truthful and blunt about donating to “political campaigns.” I’ve always felt that money donated to many politicians were just used to keep their second or third house and not on supporting their political stand. I just needed someone who knows to verify that. Thank you.
I hope you're right, but filtering on R+5 is digging a big hole to get out of. I'd rather support tossup or Lean R races.
I think it's too cautious. Look at Talarico. In 2018, there was no inflation crisis, Trump was underwater, but not like today with the generic House ballot poll ranging from Dem +5 to Dem +11. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/congressional-vote-2026.html I always thought Beto was too hippy for Texas independents, but he got to within 2% of beating Cruz. In many of these races, like Paxton for Senate or Chuck Edwards in NC-11, the Republicans are running scandal-ridden Magats while Dems are running pragmatic, relatable candidates. NC-11 is especially interesting because Trump criticized Biden's Helene FEMA response, then got in office and DOGE'd it.
Vivek sucks ass indeed
Glad to see Ager on your list! For a history of his family - we think of them as “the Kennedy’s meet The Waltons” - see, “We Plow God’s Fields”, a biography of the family, by John Ager. Also book of photographs and history by me. I can send you both!
I just wrote this on another Bulwark post today:
Jamie Ager was tied in a poll with sleaze ball Chuck Edwards in NC-11 before the worst scandals broke (hear the roar of Platner-like Republican outrage...nope, not a peep).
See https://www.bpr.org/politics-government/2026-07-02/edwards-vs-ager-11th-district-contest-could-be-toss-up-by-november-experts-say
Only a dem sponsored poll in January, but it had him ahead. https://www.newsweek.com/north-carolina-democrat-edges-out-republican-campaign-poll-jamie-ager-11316985
Trump stalling FEMA aid and a bigger scandal that broke since make it winnable. Ager got more primary votes than Edwards: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/north-carolina-us-house-district-11-results
The 2-4-1 aspect of this race is that Cooper is ahead of Whately by the widest margin of any red-2-blue Senate race https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/north-carolina-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html and the two races should help each other.
Tim, if donating to campaigns is generally such a waste of money, do you have any suggestions about other ways to donate, SPECIFICALLY TO HELP DEMS WIN HOUSE AND SENATE SEATS? 3 options come to mind.
1. Voter registration campaigns targeting "likely" Dems in swing districts and states.
2. GOTV efforts in those locations
3. Building up the democratic media echo machine to spread progressive messages 24/7 on Tic Toc,You Tube and other media favored by people who get their info without reading.
Any thoughts about the utility of any of THESE?
I have to disagree with Tim a little. Early money--as in now--is vital for funding staffing, and staying in the fight against overwhelming NRCC and SuperPAC money. Staffing data operations, GOTV and lit in every precinct, and paying the consultants are all pricey and necessary. Those still looking like they will have a chance in September as the race comes into focus will have an easier time, but right after a candidate announces and right after primaries are key times for early money.
Other things to do:
1. Join your local and state party and volunteer. See how well run they are and then donate
2. Volunteer to be an election worker so it isn't all election deniers showing up
3. If your district/state is not competitive, plan a vacation in one that is and volunteer for a week.
4. Find ways to drop little comments in casuals conversation to remind people of Iran war (Someone says it will take a couple of days for something, and you respond, "Is that calendar days or Iran war days?", inflation ("can you believe X costs Y now!"), rural hospitals closing, our nursing and child care shortages due to immigration changes ("I don't know what my family is going to do about senior/child care now that so many caregivers have been deported."), job prospects for college grads ("I hope my kid can earn enough to make the cost of college worthwhile. The stock market might be going up, but the job market is pretty slow.")
Just to rub it in a little more…most practical Triad Ever…sorry JVL
Now all we need is an Act blue link to Tim’s List!
“Max Miller is an INCREDIBLY bad guy. The accusations against him make Graham Platner look like Andrew Egger.” 🤣
Just heard Patrick Schmidt of Kansas on That Trippi Show. He sounds like a worthwhile addition to Tim's List. He'd be a great guest too. His republican opponent live in FL!
?Deb Haaland for governor of New Mexico!
Expect Kansas to send Roger Marshall home to Florida.
Great list, and two potential adds — your buddy Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in WA-02. That’s still an R+5-7 district, and her opponent is not the insane Joe Kent this time.
Dark horse pick to keep your eye on is Seth Bodnar in MT Senate also running as an independent. Hunter and former Green Beret who should benefit from Daines’ bait-and-switch typical politician move to give the nomination to his hand-picked successor.
Thank you Tim! Hugely helpful.
I would add Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia. Ossoff is likely set to be re-elected and recent polling has shown Keisha tied or ahead of the MAGA lunatics running to succeed Kemp as governor. Having a Democrat governor in Georgia in 2028 would be a big bulwark against the next big lie and attempt to steal a national election in the swing states.
I'm surprised Jen Kiggans VA-02 did not appear on your list. The district has flipped back and forth repeatedly in the 30 years I have lived in southeast Virginia.
Thank you, Tim, for being truthful and blunt about donating to “political campaigns.” I’ve always felt that money donated to many politicians were just used to keep their second or third house and not on supporting their political stand. I just needed someone who knows to verify that. Thank you.
Is it more useful to donate to the Democratic National Committee rather than to individual candidates?