Bill’s prediction can’t work - not because it’s overly optimistic (which it is) or because a large chunk of Republican voters want to be led by an aggressive populist (which they do) but simply because of the fact that regardless of how popular the “Never Trump” movement becomes, there isn’t a “Never Trump” political party! This is a dil…
Bill’s prediction can’t work - not because it’s overly optimistic (which it is) or because a large chunk of Republican voters want to be led by an aggressive populist (which they do) but simply because of the fact that regardless of how popular the “Never Trump” movement becomes, there isn’t a “Never Trump” political party! This is a dilemma - maybe not for voters or media or activists or intellectuals but definitely for *politicians*!
Supposing even that the most improbable of Bill’s events happen and a lot more elites and voters join the “anti-Trump” movement, they still hit a wall at the ballot box! Either they stay home on Election Day or when they get to the ballot box, they must decide between 4 choices - (1) A candidate who overtly supports Trump & Trumpism (2) A candidate who doesn’t overtly support Trump or Trumpism but also doesn’t rebuke him too strongly so as not to lose favor with the base (3) A third party or write-in or (4) A Democrat.
If a “never Trump” Republican or Independent voter chooses option 1, then they aren’t *really* “never Trump” because fascist populism by any other name still stinks! If they choose option 2 because they know the candidate is a “normie” Republican who doesn’t support Trump or MAGA but can’t publicly denounce Trump or Trumpism because they are beholden to MAGA voters, why would anyone think they would magically *stop* being beholden *after* they were elected?!? If you don’t know the answer, ask Liz Cheney or Adam Kinzinger or Mitch McConnell or Ben Sasse or Brian Kemp or hell ANY Republican politician!!!
Option 3 is a meaningless protest vote unless anyone honestly believes that a magical third party will get started, funded, organized and become popular enough among a large group of people to become a contender between now and 2024. I’m not ruling it out but I think I have a higher chance to score Taylor Swift tickets for Met Life this summer…So the only option left is to stay home or vote for a Democrat.
Either way, a *real* growth in the Never Trump movement *requires* that, at least in the short term, more Democrats win and more Republicans lose. That’s the hard reality and the crucial step that Mr. Kristol leaves out of his ambitious list. And losing is *hard* because it means losing not just elections but losing your livelihood, your social circle, your standing and your reputation. It means losing your sense of who you are and what you stand for. And if it’s so hard for intellectuals and ideologues - for journalists and strategists and communications people to lose that, I can’t fully imagine what it must be like for *politicians* - especially older ones.
Granted it’s incredibly difficult to start or grow a movement and all of you guys deserve the highest praise for doing that. But while being “against something” may work for a movement, it can’t sustain a party. America only works because at some point it stopped being about “opposing Britain and the King” and became about “creating a functioning democratic republic”. But that required an actual Revolution.
The only currently viable "Never Trump" party is the Democratic party. And a lot of former Republicans would rather vote for the guy who wants to dump the constitution.
Bill’s prediction can’t work - not because it’s overly optimistic (which it is) or because a large chunk of Republican voters want to be led by an aggressive populist (which they do) but simply because of the fact that regardless of how popular the “Never Trump” movement becomes, there isn’t a “Never Trump” political party! This is a dilemma - maybe not for voters or media or activists or intellectuals but definitely for *politicians*!
Supposing even that the most improbable of Bill’s events happen and a lot more elites and voters join the “anti-Trump” movement, they still hit a wall at the ballot box! Either they stay home on Election Day or when they get to the ballot box, they must decide between 4 choices - (1) A candidate who overtly supports Trump & Trumpism (2) A candidate who doesn’t overtly support Trump or Trumpism but also doesn’t rebuke him too strongly so as not to lose favor with the base (3) A third party or write-in or (4) A Democrat.
If a “never Trump” Republican or Independent voter chooses option 1, then they aren’t *really* “never Trump” because fascist populism by any other name still stinks! If they choose option 2 because they know the candidate is a “normie” Republican who doesn’t support Trump or MAGA but can’t publicly denounce Trump or Trumpism because they are beholden to MAGA voters, why would anyone think they would magically *stop* being beholden *after* they were elected?!? If you don’t know the answer, ask Liz Cheney or Adam Kinzinger or Mitch McConnell or Ben Sasse or Brian Kemp or hell ANY Republican politician!!!
Option 3 is a meaningless protest vote unless anyone honestly believes that a magical third party will get started, funded, organized and become popular enough among a large group of people to become a contender between now and 2024. I’m not ruling it out but I think I have a higher chance to score Taylor Swift tickets for Met Life this summer…So the only option left is to stay home or vote for a Democrat.
Either way, a *real* growth in the Never Trump movement *requires* that, at least in the short term, more Democrats win and more Republicans lose. That’s the hard reality and the crucial step that Mr. Kristol leaves out of his ambitious list. And losing is *hard* because it means losing not just elections but losing your livelihood, your social circle, your standing and your reputation. It means losing your sense of who you are and what you stand for. And if it’s so hard for intellectuals and ideologues - for journalists and strategists and communications people to lose that, I can’t fully imagine what it must be like for *politicians* - especially older ones.
Granted it’s incredibly difficult to start or grow a movement and all of you guys deserve the highest praise for doing that. But while being “against something” may work for a movement, it can’t sustain a party. America only works because at some point it stopped being about “opposing Britain and the King” and became about “creating a functioning democratic republic”. But that required an actual Revolution.
The only currently viable "Never Trump" party is the Democratic party. And a lot of former Republicans would rather vote for the guy who wants to dump the constitution.
Yeah…that was basically my point. It’s sad.