Excellent fact based report, but I want to know more. I want to know exactly what the fraud was, how they did it and who (the names) of who did it and the price they are or will pay for having done it. I suggest you keep going with this and develop a chart that gives an view of the dollars, % involved and prison time.
Whenever Trump accuses a Dem of something, it’s because he’s doing the same thing 10 times worse. Remember the PPP fraud? Qatar bailing out the Kushner family’s stupid investment in 666 5th Avenue, the Saudi billions given to Kushner, pardons for Trump coin purchases?
It takes competent staff and updated systems to catch fraud—how has Trump’s and the Republicans war on government funding impacted audit and financial controls? Total hypocrisy.
It's the same old story... blast out some narrative that pushes people's buttons. Truth is optional, and actually discouraged, because it takes too much time to check things out. Why bother when you have lots of people waiting on the next hit of grievance or anger?
I think there was a lot of fraud everywhere during the pandemic because we didn't have the compliance infrastructure to check up on that much aid going out during the pandemic to a lot of people who hadn't done that type of work before and in some cases, had no intention of doing any of the work. I would bet a lot of fraud was done by white guys, but we can never acknowledge them as a demographic of anything bad for some reason.
I think this is a shame because I think Tim Walz is, overall, a decent guy and would have been a good standard bearer for the sports-bro crowd we don't recruit well, I don't think he's overall the most responsible for this, but what he says isn't untrue and it's annoying because no republican would have done the same and yet their continuous corruption never becomes an issue for anyone on their side.
This is 100% manufactured hype fueled by inflated "view" metrics on Twitter. The Minnesota House Republican Caucus admitted they spoon-fed this fraud-related data to David Hoch, which then fueled the content for Shirley’s video. It’s a coordinated hit job masquerading as organic outrage.
Let’s look at the actual numbers. On YouTube, where people actually have to click and watch, the entire 45-minute video sits at around 3 million views. But on X? Elon’s repost claims 138 million views; Vance’s claims tens of millions more. But how exactly does Twitter count a "view?" It’s a joke: a view registers if a user watches for just 2 seconds with 50% of the video on screen. Even if you scroll past it while looking for a meme, you’re counted as a "viewer." Since the video was hosted directly on X, we'll never know the real count, but 2026 industry benchmarks suggest completion rates for long-form content are 2% or less.
The reality? Of those 138 million "views," it’s highly probable fewer than 2.7 million people watched the video in its entirety. Most people saw 15–30 seconds of Nick Shirley standing in front of a locked door, felt the "outrage," and hit repost.
We are seeing the "FEMA Coffin" playbook brought back to life. Just as Alex Jones filmed empty lots to claim they were death camps, Shirley used selective filming during nap times or at closed locations to manufacture a narrative of "ghost fraud" out of thin air. He intentionally ignored context—like security footage proving children were present earlier that day, or staff refusing entry to masked men out of fear of ICE raids—to provide the "visual evidence" necessary to trigger a massive federal response without the burden of an actual audit.
We are treading some seriously dangerous, fucked up waters right now. This is post-truth governance, where viral "vibes" supersede administrative reality. They used the perception of mass viewership to freeze $10 billion in funding to five blue states (MN, CA, CO, IL, NY), claiming a mandate based on vanity metrics. In this environment, the objective truth matters less than the speed at which outrage can be weaponized. When a two-second scroll is treated as a democratic mandate to justify federal crackdowns, the system is officially broken.
If you believe in the power of the government to do anything good and impactful in healthcare, social services, education, heck even in policing or the military you have to insist on airtight transparency and accounting. For 50 years I've been watching Republicans seize upon the Welfare Queen narrative and Americans fall for it.
Jonathan, thank you for digging deep and writing this. Love the comparison to safety nets provided by governments vs. those contracted out to the sincere and fraudulent alike. Excellent coverage of actual cases and reasons proponents of government action must do better, all the while making clear that Trump and his cronies are still exaggerating and lying to their hearts' content. Social progress is hard, and I'm glad Walz is dropping out of race to focus on battening down some hatches that were left open too long and for some of the wrong reasons. Can't wait to see a proper audit of how ICE is spending their bolus of funds just now...
I have noted previously COVID programs were as well managed as a program that large can be, especially with reduced (and remote) staffing at state levels. Remember, MN is a lot smaller than CA and I am certain they have had to pivot quite a bit to chase fraudsters. Staying on top of Federal grant guidelines is a nightmare but a necessary evil (I have been a government grants administrator).
Honestly, the current Orange Turd in Chief is a convicted felon for rape and fraud. What are the chances that we now live in a cesspool of deplorables with no accountability? How do you stop opportunists when so many are desperate for Lifestyles of the rich and corrupt? We used to have basic decency, shame and prison sentences but the manbaby in chief keeps pardoning those who commit fraud as long as they bow and kiss the scummy mushroom.
Excellent piece. Thank you. I purposely ignored this story for the last couple weeks knowing that the MAGA narrative was incomplete at best. Though they may have done it already and I missed it, I was waiting for and expecting a more complete picture to be presented by the NYT or the WSJ, but I'm glad to see, and not surprised, that it was The Bulwark that provided that.
As always it’s the coverup and rationalizing of the problem tbt is greater than the original issue - Dems as usual have their heads in the sand because……identity matters more than competence
Well if I was 20 yrs younger I would challenge both parties since I’m a 35 yr center right independent and a Bulwark+ sub - they’re big enough boys and girls to get their acts together - they have some talent if the old folk would get out of the way
This was a very balanced and thoughtful explainer - and is much appreciated.
Excellent fact based report, but I want to know more. I want to know exactly what the fraud was, how they did it and who (the names) of who did it and the price they are or will pay for having done it. I suggest you keep going with this and develop a chart that gives an view of the dollars, % involved and prison time.
Whenever Trump accuses a Dem of something, it’s because he’s doing the same thing 10 times worse. Remember the PPP fraud? Qatar bailing out the Kushner family’s stupid investment in 666 5th Avenue, the Saudi billions given to Kushner, pardons for Trump coin purchases?
It takes competent staff and updated systems to catch fraud—how has Trump’s and the Republicans war on government funding impacted audit and financial controls? Total hypocrisy.
It's interesting to see the reaction to this as compared to other alleged fraud, by orders of magnitude: https://howtotrainyourrobot.com/a-mathematical-look-at-recent-alleged-fraud/
It's the same old story... blast out some narrative that pushes people's buttons. Truth is optional, and actually discouraged, because it takes too much time to check things out. Why bother when you have lots of people waiting on the next hit of grievance or anger?
This is the most comprehensive of the explanations I have yet seen...
I am trying to figure out what special Medicaid program would include housing though, unless perhaps for disabled people... I've not heard of it?
I think there was a lot of fraud everywhere during the pandemic because we didn't have the compliance infrastructure to check up on that much aid going out during the pandemic to a lot of people who hadn't done that type of work before and in some cases, had no intention of doing any of the work. I would bet a lot of fraud was done by white guys, but we can never acknowledge them as a demographic of anything bad for some reason.
I think this is a shame because I think Tim Walz is, overall, a decent guy and would have been a good standard bearer for the sports-bro crowd we don't recruit well, I don't think he's overall the most responsible for this, but what he says isn't untrue and it's annoying because no republican would have done the same and yet their continuous corruption never becomes an issue for anyone on their side.
This is 100% manufactured hype fueled by inflated "view" metrics on Twitter. The Minnesota House Republican Caucus admitted they spoon-fed this fraud-related data to David Hoch, which then fueled the content for Shirley’s video. It’s a coordinated hit job masquerading as organic outrage.
Let’s look at the actual numbers. On YouTube, where people actually have to click and watch, the entire 45-minute video sits at around 3 million views. But on X? Elon’s repost claims 138 million views; Vance’s claims tens of millions more. But how exactly does Twitter count a "view?" It’s a joke: a view registers if a user watches for just 2 seconds with 50% of the video on screen. Even if you scroll past it while looking for a meme, you’re counted as a "viewer." Since the video was hosted directly on X, we'll never know the real count, but 2026 industry benchmarks suggest completion rates for long-form content are 2% or less.
The reality? Of those 138 million "views," it’s highly probable fewer than 2.7 million people watched the video in its entirety. Most people saw 15–30 seconds of Nick Shirley standing in front of a locked door, felt the "outrage," and hit repost.
We are seeing the "FEMA Coffin" playbook brought back to life. Just as Alex Jones filmed empty lots to claim they were death camps, Shirley used selective filming during nap times or at closed locations to manufacture a narrative of "ghost fraud" out of thin air. He intentionally ignored context—like security footage proving children were present earlier that day, or staff refusing entry to masked men out of fear of ICE raids—to provide the "visual evidence" necessary to trigger a massive federal response without the burden of an actual audit.
We are treading some seriously dangerous, fucked up waters right now. This is post-truth governance, where viral "vibes" supersede administrative reality. They used the perception of mass viewership to freeze $10 billion in funding to five blue states (MN, CA, CO, IL, NY), claiming a mandate based on vanity metrics. In this environment, the objective truth matters less than the speed at which outrage can be weaponized. When a two-second scroll is treated as a democratic mandate to justify federal crackdowns, the system is officially broken.
I wish more people would read your reply. Thank you.
If you believe in the power of the government to do anything good and impactful in healthcare, social services, education, heck even in policing or the military you have to insist on airtight transparency and accounting. For 50 years I've been watching Republicans seize upon the Welfare Queen narrative and Americans fall for it.
I didn't see any mention of AG Ellison. I would imagine maga would make race and religion a centerpiece of their grievance.
You don't have to repeat MAGA talking points or concede any of their bad-faith arguments. Ever.
Jonathan, thank you for digging deep and writing this. Love the comparison to safety nets provided by governments vs. those contracted out to the sincere and fraudulent alike. Excellent coverage of actual cases and reasons proponents of government action must do better, all the while making clear that Trump and his cronies are still exaggerating and lying to their hearts' content. Social progress is hard, and I'm glad Walz is dropping out of race to focus on battening down some hatches that were left open too long and for some of the wrong reasons. Can't wait to see a proper audit of how ICE is spending their bolus of funds just now...
I have noted previously COVID programs were as well managed as a program that large can be, especially with reduced (and remote) staffing at state levels. Remember, MN is a lot smaller than CA and I am certain they have had to pivot quite a bit to chase fraudsters. Staying on top of Federal grant guidelines is a nightmare but a necessary evil (I have been a government grants administrator).
Honestly, the current Orange Turd in Chief is a convicted felon for rape and fraud. What are the chances that we now live in a cesspool of deplorables with no accountability? How do you stop opportunists when so many are desperate for Lifestyles of the rich and corrupt? We used to have basic decency, shame and prison sentences but the manbaby in chief keeps pardoning those who commit fraud as long as they bow and kiss the scummy mushroom.
Excellent piece. Thank you. I purposely ignored this story for the last couple weeks knowing that the MAGA narrative was incomplete at best. Though they may have done it already and I missed it, I was waiting for and expecting a more complete picture to be presented by the NYT or the WSJ, but I'm glad to see, and not surprised, that it was The Bulwark that provided that.
This was an excellent article. Now I really believe I have an understanding of the situation.
As always it’s the coverup and rationalizing of the problem tbt is greater than the original issue - Dems as usual have their heads in the sand because……identity matters more than competence
Well if I was 20 yrs younger I would challenge both parties since I’m a 35 yr center right independent and a Bulwark+ sub - they’re big enough boys and girls to get their acts together - they have some talent if the old folk would get out of the way
Democrats is a lot of people. Perhaps you ought to run and show them how it’s done.