The Republican Party isn’t doomed. It’s changing to an asymmetric mode of politics.
There’s a reason that the populist-nationalist movement is increasingly authoritarian.
1. Look at the Big Picture for the GOP
Three stories:
Last week on TNL, Sarah talked about the long-term prospects of the Republican coalition as it is currently constituted and suggested that they are dim.
Yesterday on the flagship pod, Tim talked with Jane Coaston about how MAGA keeps defining itself against things that are broadly popular: Obamacare, the NFL, gay marriage, Taylor Swift, Budweiser, Martin Luther King. At some point, when a movement is entirely focused on rejecting the popular culture, that movement finds itself in a narrow, but deep, minority.
And finally there’s this essay, by Trace Underwood, which argues that “The Republican Party Is Doomed.” Here’s Underwood’s thesis:
I don't mean they'll lose every election moving forward. My case, rather, is this: they know exactly what they want someone to do, but in an increasing number of institutions, there is no one left to do it. Increasing age and education polarization means that Republicans are rapidly losing the capacity to run public institutions at all levels other than electoral, and this trend cannot realistically reverse within a generation. The near-term future is already written.
This view is comforting, especially since in the immediate future, the Republican party has better-than-even odds to control the presidency, the House, and the Senate while also holding a two-seat majority on the Supreme Court.
So let’s talk about it.