
Veteran campaign pro Joe Trippi sat down with Bill Kristol for an hour last week to talk about 2020, the Democratic field, and President Trump. The entire interview is absolutely worth your valuable time.
Trippiās big takeaways are:
(1) Biden is a heavier favorite than people realize.
Heās leading most polls of the Democratic field by 8 points or so over Bernie Sanders.
He has deep wells of support: More Democrats identify themselves as āObamaā Democrats than either āmoderateā or āliberalā Democrats.
Hereās Trippi: āNo vice president in my lifetime has ever soughtāformer or sittingāhas ever sought the partyās nomination and not received it, not one.ā
(2) Biden changes the dynamics of race.
The current Democratic field is arrayed as an ideological fight, with Bernie Sanders on one end of the spectrum and Amy Klobuchar on the other.
If Biden gets in, the center of gravity shifts so that the race is more about generational changeāBiden or Bernie versus Beto or Kamala. At that point, political purity begins to matter much less.
(3) Lessons from the 2010 California governorās race.
In 2010, California was finishing its unhappy experiment with a novice celebrity governor.
In the race to succeed him, Republicans nominated a smart, successful, appealing woman named Meg Whitman who had been the CEO of a beloved Silicon Valley tech company.
Jerry Brown had already been secretary of state, governor, mayor of Oakland, and attorney general. He was old news.
But California voters were so shellshocked by the Ah-nold experience that they rushed to embrace what they saw as Brownās steady hand.
They wanted no part of either Whitman or the young liberal wunderkind Gavin Newsom.
Hereās Trippi:
Weāve got the CEO; weāve got this young, vibrant Gavin Newsom. And I really thought, when I went in the first research and focus groups and talking to voters, that I was going to get, āthat guyās been around forever,ā you know. ...
āOh, we did that with Arnold Schwarzenegger. He was new, he had been outside of government. Didnāt know anything about how to run a government. I donāt want anybody we have to put training wheels on. Please, no, Iām not doing that.ā
Then you go, well, what about this young new Gavin Newsom guy, a lieutenant whoās going to run for governor? āNo, no, no, I just want somebody who knows where the light switches are, and knows how government really works, and has a chance to solve these problems.ā
So then you go, like, we talked to them a little bit more, and Iād be getting ready to hear about Governor Moonbeam and all the stuff. It was instead us saying, but, when theyād say, āNo, I love his experience, yes, he knows how everything in government works; look at all the jobs heās had.ā And youād go, but what about Governor Moonbeam? āNo, no, no, heāll know how to get things done.ā Of course, it doesnāt have to go that way. Trippi allows that Democrats could instead push for maximum polarization and decide that to beat Trump you need a Trump.
Lucky us.
However, I suspect that the conclusion of the conclusion of the Mueller investigation without indictments makes the max polarization scenario less likely and makes the unity-theme path easier for a Democrat.
The base of the Democratic party has wanted impeachment from the minute it became clear that the Electoral College members were going to cast their votes for Trump faithfully.
More strategically minded Democrats believed that impeachment was a morass that would: (1) Not remove Trump; (2) Create a public backlash; and (3) Make 2020 a referendum not on Trumpās tenure but on the idea of impeachment.
Maybe this is a contest Democrats could win. But why would you want to take that chance instead of simply running against the record of the guy with the constant -10 approval rating?
Had Mueller recommended indictment, Pelosi would have had a hard time keeping her caucus from walking down the impeachment path.
For the 2020 candidates it would have been even worse: The top tier candidates would have looked at the polling and tried to finesse the idea of impeachment so as to preserve their general election chances.
But down in the third tier, some candidate languishing and looking for product differentiationāmaybe a senator named Gristen Killibrandāwould have gone full-impeachment and used it as a club against the DINO-cuck-squishes who werenāt willing to do what it took to rid America of the Orange Menace.
With impeachment off the table, weāre now done relitigating 2016 once and for all. The next election will be about the future. Or perhaps itās more accurate to say that Democrats will now be forced to face the fact that the next electionālike every electionāis about the future.
Theyāve been stripped of their Trump impeachment fantasies. As an electoral matter, thatās usually helpful.
If you really want to nerd out, though, the best parts of the Trippi interview are when he reminisces about the 1988 primary, where he worked the Gephardt campaign and went from last to first in the Iowa caucuses in 18 days. Eighteen days.
Which really screwed Al Gore.
Gore had been betting on Dukakis winning both Iowa and New Hampshire and then being the Southern alternative to yet another Northeastern liberal. Oops.
But thatās not the best part.
The best part is that while Gephardt and Trippi were sitting in dead last, the guy leading the pack and hoping to use an Iowa win to slingshot into a face-off with Dukakis was Illinois Senator Paul Simon.
And Paul Simonās campaign was run by ... David Axelrod.