It's hard to see how the House Freedom Caucus could develop a worse plan than "crash the economy to defund Social Security and Medicare." You know, the two most popular economic programs in our country's existence.
This just seems like a suicide mission by a group of House Reps desperate for attention, and are likely to find out they won't like the kind of attention they get.
It's hard to see how the House Freedom Caucus could develop a worse plan than "crash the economy to defund Social Security and Medicare." You know, the two most popular economic programs in our country's existence.
This just seems like a suicide mission by a group of House Reps desperate for attention, and are likely to find out they won't like the kind of attention they get.
If the financial markets melt down, the Republicans plan to blame Biden for tanking the stock market because "he refused to negotiate on the debt ceiling." Which is of course a lie-you can't "negotiate" in order to avoid paying your debts.
Can DOJ take Congress to court to force them to honor the US promise to pay creditors based on Section 4 of the 14th amendment:
"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."
Seems to me the Republicans are questioning the validity of the debt by threatening to hold payments hostage.
1. Of course you can "negotiate" in order to avoid paying your debts. You and I can't, but we don't owe enough. Princes, corporations, and governments do it all the time. There is a species of debtor who believe that only fools and weaklings live up to their commitments without compulsion, particularly if by breaking a contract they have something to gain.
2. "Full faith and credit of the United States" matters only if one cares to preserve it. The controlling moiety of Republican congresspersons, and probably an even larger fraction of Republican state and local officeholders and politicians, don't care to preserve the credit of the currently existing United States. Some of them want to replace it with some impossible Cloud Cuckooland United States born of their fantasies and ignorance. Others have a clearly conceived and highly possible United States -- a fascist tyranny forced upon everyone else by a revolutionary vanguard. Between them they may or may not be a majority of Republican officeholders and party faithful, but they don't need to be a majority. They just need to be numerous and active enough to paralyze the defenders of America as it (for now) is.
3. Some -- maybe most of them-- are idiots who, like teenagers who think they are immortal, are convinced that all the dire warnings are bullshit, or that the consequences and costs will happen to others. There is however a smaller group who, clear-eyed, are committed to crossing this Rubicon, and count on sufficient turmoil from default that a Bolshevik opportunity will follow and they will seize it.
Remember, Lenin's first action was repudiating the debt. He then fought, and won, a civil war. Their new regime triumphed.
4. By the way, Chip Roy is not wrong about one thing... although he understands that the debt ceiling fight is about defaulting on US obligations, he also sees the trajectory of increased expenditure since WWII, and recognizes that persisting in this behavior will eventually end in default and economic collapse anyway. I'm a liberal Democrat and I can't argue with this analysis; what cannot continue indefinitely will in fact stop continuing.
I guess where I differ with Mr. Roy and his ilk is their conclusion-- namely, since it must come, let it come sooner, get it over with, and get their desired regime in place. Right now, they have the power, numbers, and ruthlessness needed. If much forestalled, when it actually does happen, the window for imposing their desired regime may well have closed. Time is against them; the white nation, the real America, is fading away. The only thing worse than a fascist state run for their benefit is a fascist regime where they are just another equal faction in the general rabble.
Federal Deficit spending is basically the medieval practice of coin shaving. When they print and spend too much, everything else gets more expensive compared to the dollar. So we are already seeing the negative impacts of too much government spending.
Actually, if debt is sustainable, this is not necessarily the case. By sustainable, of course, we mean able to be serviced out of the returns to the borrower, which in the case of a government means more or less the product of the economy. This depends on interest rates, taxation rates, the effect of taxation rates on economic activity, the structure of the tax system as to the degree it hinders or distorts investment decisions.... there are lots of ways to screw it up. But it is not necessarily the case that even ongoing continual increase in total indebtedness must resullt in price spirals.
Which doesn't mean that what we've been doing since the Bush (shrub) tax cuts was not insane. I'm with Hamilton-- the debt, if not immoderate, is a blessing. But moderation has vanished from every corner of our political house.
And our "blessing" has been artificially sustained in bliss by the historical accident that the US dollar is the worlds' de facto reserve currency, and US obligations have never yet defaulted.
What I'm terrified of right now is that happens when (and I'm increasingly confident it's when, as in when near term, a couple of years at most and probably less) the US goes to a treasury auction and nobody buys. Even if we don't actually "default" -- once the market (namely the world) agrees that US debt is now just another sovereign debt, and what is worse a sovereign debt hostage to an insane mob of lunatics who not only can but actually promise to render it worthless whenever the whim takes them, our blessing will become a true curse. Not only for us, but for the entire world, And in the agony which ensues, what cruel tyrannies will follow, like hungry wolves hunting down wounded prey.
I avoided Covid for all the epidemic until last Thursday. I'm recovering, it seems, but in the years to come it could well turn out that I, among the living, will envy the dead.
I agree with you it seems like the Treasury is constitutionally-obligated to pay its debts. Any law prohibiting the payment of debts would be unconstitutional.
I think Republicans will try to blame Biden but it's going to be hard since they've broadcasted their intentions this far in advance.
ItтАЩs hard to imagine a rationale republicans might have to justify the rhetoric weтАЩre hearing and reading. ItтАЩs even harder to envision the crippling what they seem to be proposing will cause.
WhatтАЩs inexplicable to me is the possible benefit тАЬtheyтАЭ might imagine, given the range of potential outcomes, vis-a-vis coming elections without the benefit gerrymandering, deceit, and sabotage. Although, itтАЩs true theyтАЩve been getting away with it this far.
The benefit is that they get to be "relevant" and famous, and influential, and hold office (particularly those who live in safe districts).... and don't forget the graft. The benefit is entirely selfish and short-sighted.
Their calculus in the situation is also flawed, Their understanding of their role and of the larger implications of what they are doing is woefully incomplete. They have LOTs of rationales for how things will turn out in their favor or be favorable to them (which are mostly wishful thinking).
These people understand that roughly half the voters are likely to vote for them NO MATTER WHAT. Actually, those that live in red areas know that significantly more than half will vote for them (in the general) NO MATTER WHAT.
They aren't worried about the libs or intellectuals screaming or hurting, because there aren't enough of those people in their districts to make a difference.
The people in purple or contested areas are likely worried, but those aren't the people causing problems (other than keeping their heads down so as not to get attacked from the right).
What we are seeing is a good argument (and evidence) for NOT having safe districts, period... for finding some other way of choosing these people.
But since these people control that process, nothing will be done until the Revolution comes--and then people will do something equally as bad, only different.
One thing IтАЩve learned in the Trump years is the ASTONISHING amount of wishful thinking that seemingly reasonable people can have. Over and over I find myself saying тАЬWell, what did you think was going to happen?тАЭ
They have forgotten or are ignorant of Finagle's law, one version of which goes:
The perversity of the universe tends to the maximum.
This is related to Murphy's Law:
What can go wrong, will--at the worst possible time, in the worst possible way.
Which in turn is related to/inspired by the laws of thermodynamics
Always start working from the basic understanding that the universe is going to screw you over. You end up with more pleasant surprises than unpleasant ones that way.
There will always be those that will want to blame the Democrats and will do so. The overwhelming majority of them vote republican.
There will always be those, who in the name of fair and balanced reporting, will do the both siderism thing--well, the Democrats COULD have fixed this before the GoP House took over. Charlie gives an example in this very article.
Who gets blamed will (un)shockingly depend upon the political identity of the person in question... which means the big question will be, where will the middle (particularly the center-right) come down on?
The reality is that the debt limit thing is a STUPID thing. Having that in place is like begging for trouble. It should go away.
And Rampell is even blaming Democrats for failing to stop the coming Republican engineered meltdown, by squeezing the debt ceiling vote into their final days in power. That logic is a chapter in тАЬbothsidesтАЭ waffling, even if the next sentence tries to revert to basic logic. Sprinkle just enough blame on the innocent party, to keep some kind of GOP cred, just in case?
It's hard to see how the House Freedom Caucus could develop a worse plan than "crash the economy to defund Social Security and Medicare." You know, the two most popular economic programs in our country's existence.
This just seems like a suicide mission by a group of House Reps desperate for attention, and are likely to find out they won't like the kind of attention they get.
If the financial markets melt down, the Republicans plan to blame Biden for tanking the stock market because "he refused to negotiate on the debt ceiling." Which is of course a lie-you can't "negotiate" in order to avoid paying your debts.
Can DOJ take Congress to court to force them to honor the US promise to pay creditors based on Section 4 of the 14th amendment:
"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."
Seems to me the Republicans are questioning the validity of the debt by threatening to hold payments hostage.
1. Of course you can "negotiate" in order to avoid paying your debts. You and I can't, but we don't owe enough. Princes, corporations, and governments do it all the time. There is a species of debtor who believe that only fools and weaklings live up to their commitments without compulsion, particularly if by breaking a contract they have something to gain.
2. "Full faith and credit of the United States" matters only if one cares to preserve it. The controlling moiety of Republican congresspersons, and probably an even larger fraction of Republican state and local officeholders and politicians, don't care to preserve the credit of the currently existing United States. Some of them want to replace it with some impossible Cloud Cuckooland United States born of their fantasies and ignorance. Others have a clearly conceived and highly possible United States -- a fascist tyranny forced upon everyone else by a revolutionary vanguard. Between them they may or may not be a majority of Republican officeholders and party faithful, but they don't need to be a majority. They just need to be numerous and active enough to paralyze the defenders of America as it (for now) is.
3. Some -- maybe most of them-- are idiots who, like teenagers who think they are immortal, are convinced that all the dire warnings are bullshit, or that the consequences and costs will happen to others. There is however a smaller group who, clear-eyed, are committed to crossing this Rubicon, and count on sufficient turmoil from default that a Bolshevik opportunity will follow and they will seize it.
Remember, Lenin's first action was repudiating the debt. He then fought, and won, a civil war. Their new regime triumphed.
4. By the way, Chip Roy is not wrong about one thing... although he understands that the debt ceiling fight is about defaulting on US obligations, he also sees the trajectory of increased expenditure since WWII, and recognizes that persisting in this behavior will eventually end in default and economic collapse anyway. I'm a liberal Democrat and I can't argue with this analysis; what cannot continue indefinitely will in fact stop continuing.
I guess where I differ with Mr. Roy and his ilk is their conclusion-- namely, since it must come, let it come sooner, get it over with, and get their desired regime in place. Right now, they have the power, numbers, and ruthlessness needed. If much forestalled, when it actually does happen, the window for imposing their desired regime may well have closed. Time is against them; the white nation, the real America, is fading away. The only thing worse than a fascist state run for their benefit is a fascist regime where they are just another equal faction in the general rabble.
Odds of a federal default this year: 3 in 5?
Federal Deficit spending is basically the medieval practice of coin shaving. When they print and spend too much, everything else gets more expensive compared to the dollar. So we are already seeing the negative impacts of too much government spending.
Actually, if debt is sustainable, this is not necessarily the case. By sustainable, of course, we mean able to be serviced out of the returns to the borrower, which in the case of a government means more or less the product of the economy. This depends on interest rates, taxation rates, the effect of taxation rates on economic activity, the structure of the tax system as to the degree it hinders or distorts investment decisions.... there are lots of ways to screw it up. But it is not necessarily the case that even ongoing continual increase in total indebtedness must resullt in price spirals.
Which doesn't mean that what we've been doing since the Bush (shrub) tax cuts was not insane. I'm with Hamilton-- the debt, if not immoderate, is a blessing. But moderation has vanished from every corner of our political house.
And our "blessing" has been artificially sustained in bliss by the historical accident that the US dollar is the worlds' de facto reserve currency, and US obligations have never yet defaulted.
What I'm terrified of right now is that happens when (and I'm increasingly confident it's when, as in when near term, a couple of years at most and probably less) the US goes to a treasury auction and nobody buys. Even if we don't actually "default" -- once the market (namely the world) agrees that US debt is now just another sovereign debt, and what is worse a sovereign debt hostage to an insane mob of lunatics who not only can but actually promise to render it worthless whenever the whim takes them, our blessing will become a true curse. Not only for us, but for the entire world, And in the agony which ensues, what cruel tyrannies will follow, like hungry wolves hunting down wounded prey.
I avoided Covid for all the epidemic until last Thursday. I'm recovering, it seems, but in the years to come it could well turn out that I, among the living, will envy the dead.
Bill Clinton handed off a budget surplus without cutting to the bone. It is possible.
I agree with you it seems like the Treasury is constitutionally-obligated to pay its debts. Any law prohibiting the payment of debts would be unconstitutional.
I think Republicans will try to blame Biden but it's going to be hard since they've broadcasted their intentions this far in advance.
ItтАЩs hard to imagine a rationale republicans might have to justify the rhetoric weтАЩre hearing and reading. ItтАЩs even harder to envision the crippling what they seem to be proposing will cause.
WhatтАЩs inexplicable to me is the possible benefit тАЬtheyтАЭ might imagine, given the range of potential outcomes, vis-a-vis coming elections without the benefit gerrymandering, deceit, and sabotage. Although, itтАЩs true theyтАЩve been getting away with it this far.
Excellent piece, and thank you, Mr. Sykes!
The benefit is that they get to be "relevant" and famous, and influential, and hold office (particularly those who live in safe districts).... and don't forget the graft. The benefit is entirely selfish and short-sighted.
Their calculus in the situation is also flawed, Their understanding of their role and of the larger implications of what they are doing is woefully incomplete. They have LOTs of rationales for how things will turn out in their favor or be favorable to them (which are mostly wishful thinking).
These people understand that roughly half the voters are likely to vote for them NO MATTER WHAT. Actually, those that live in red areas know that significantly more than half will vote for them (in the general) NO MATTER WHAT.
They aren't worried about the libs or intellectuals screaming or hurting, because there aren't enough of those people in their districts to make a difference.
The people in purple or contested areas are likely worried, but those aren't the people causing problems (other than keeping their heads down so as not to get attacked from the right).
What we are seeing is a good argument (and evidence) for NOT having safe districts, period... for finding some other way of choosing these people.
But since these people control that process, nothing will be done until the Revolution comes--and then people will do something equally as bad, only different.
One thing IтАЩve learned in the Trump years is the ASTONISHING amount of wishful thinking that seemingly reasonable people can have. Over and over I find myself saying тАЬWell, what did you think was going to happen?тАЭ
They have forgotten or are ignorant of Finagle's law, one version of which goes:
The perversity of the universe tends to the maximum.
This is related to Murphy's Law:
What can go wrong, will--at the worst possible time, in the worst possible way.
Which in turn is related to/inspired by the laws of thermodynamics
Always start working from the basic understanding that the universe is going to screw you over. You end up with more pleasant surprises than unpleasant ones that way.
Exactly! After a while it gets astonishlyvapid.
There will always be those that will want to blame the Democrats and will do so. The overwhelming majority of them vote republican.
There will always be those, who in the name of fair and balanced reporting, will do the both siderism thing--well, the Democrats COULD have fixed this before the GoP House took over. Charlie gives an example in this very article.
Who gets blamed will (un)shockingly depend upon the political identity of the person in question... which means the big question will be, where will the middle (particularly the center-right) come down on?
The reality is that the debt limit thing is a STUPID thing. Having that in place is like begging for trouble. It should go away.
And Rampell is even blaming Democrats for failing to stop the coming Republican engineered meltdown, by squeezing the debt ceiling vote into their final days in power. That logic is a chapter in тАЬbothsidesтАЭ waffling, even if the next sentence tries to revert to basic logic. Sprinkle just enough blame on the innocent party, to keep some kind of GOP cred, just in case?