A Third Party Is the Coward’s Way Out
If you don’t want Trump to be president, there’s only one choice.
DURING THE ALL-TOO-BRIEF one-on-one contest between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, there was a good deal of analysis declaring it the last stand of the Reaganite vision for the GOP versus the MAGA takeover. That was the wishiest of wishful thinking—and not just because such large segments of the current Republican party delight in Trump. It’s also because the Reaganite wing has made such a poor showing for itself.
It’s generous to call the desiccated exoskeleton of Reaganism a “wing” at all, and frankly, the use of the term “Reaganism” is not really accurate anyway. What people mean when they use the term is traditional Republicanism, which includes belief in free enterprise, smaller government, freer trade, respect for the Constitution, dedication to American world leadership, and social conservatism, among other ideals. Republicans who continue to adhere to those principles embraced Haley as the last man (as it were) standing.
One reason there weren’t more traditional Republicans was on display in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed. The world might look very different if traditional Republicans had been willing to stand firm for their values when they came under assault from an ignorant, cruel demagogue. So I was briefly optimistic when I saw that an honest-to-goodness Reaganite, John Lehman, who served as secretary of the Navy under Reagan, had weighed in. The headline was promising: “Reagan Would Never Vote for Trump.” But after that bold beginning, the subhead was deflating: “He also didn’t care much for Biden. Like me, he’d be looking for a strong third-party candidate to support.”
So typical. Let’s unpack that subhead. Reagan may not have “cared much” for Biden in the 1980s—most conservatives didn’t. He gave Robert Bork a very hard time and was a supporter of the nuclear freeze, among other things. But we cannot say how Reagan would view the 2024 Biden—many former Republicans like me consider him the more conservative choice in the most important respects, i.e., respect for the rule of law and adherence to the Constitution. As Lehman itemizes in his piece, Trump’s departure from conservative ideals—or just plain American ideals—are “horrifying,” including his “naked admiration of our enemies,” “praise for Hezbollah,” contempt for allies, and incessant denigration of America as a “third world country” and a “laughingstock.”
One might suppose that given all of that and so much more, Lehman would counsel that Trump’s reelection would be a disaster and accordingly, that he would vote for Biden. It would be bracing to hear people say, as Dick Cheney has, that “In our nation’s 236-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump.” But no, Lehman makes a feeble accusation in the final paragraph that Biden has “turned his platform over to Bernie Sanders” and accordingly, Lehman will vote for the No Labels candidate.
That’s rubbish. Biden has done no such thing. Lehman, like so many who should know better, is failing to take responsibility for the decision we must all make. He’s treating his vote as a resume item, unwilling to tarnish his conservative bona fides by voting for the internal enemy. His longing for purity is overwhelming his judgment. If Trump is reelected, none of the things he worked for as Navy secretary is safe. The country will be in secure hands with a reelected Biden. But with a reelected Trump, we risk our most cherished freedoms and traditions.
Anything that erodes the anti-Trump coalition makes it more likely that Trump will prevail. So those who vow to write in a non-Trump Republican, or who, like Lehman, will vote for the No Labels candidate are increasing the chances that a man who promises to pardon the January 6th insurrectionists, imprison his critics, and become an ally of Russia, will be elected.
THE NO LABELS CANDIDACY is cotton candy. Though advertised as providing a “unity ticket” that will provide “common sense” solutions for America’s problems, the reality is that No Labels has no chance of winning 270 electoral college votes. Last year, they predicted that they would achieve ballot access in 32 states by now. Instead, they have access in only 16 states. Oh, and No Labels might as well be called No Candidate. Like dominoes, one possible candidate after another has turned down their offer to run: Jon Huntsman, Joe Manchin, Larry Hogan, Kyrsten Sinema, Nikki Haley, Ken Buck, Brian Kemp, and, just this week, Geoff Duncan.
As William Galston, a founder of No Labels who broke with the group last year, has explained, there are more moderate voters in the Democratic party than in the GOP. Accordingly,
A center-seeking candidate would therefore appeal to more Democrats than Republicans, and a winning Democratic coalition would include far more moderates—including moderate independents—than a Republican coalition. Mr. Biden can win the 2024 election if he is able to consolidate the anti-Trump vote, as he did in 2020. But if a No Labels ticket receives even a tiny share of the vote in key states, Mr. Trump could end up back in the Oval Office.
Former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory, who had been a co-chair of the group, resigned without explanation last week, as well, suggesting that the effort is suffering internal fissures. While the group claims to be increasing democratic choices for the American people, it is not a political party (except where it has been obliged to register as a political party to gain ballot access), refuses to reveal its donors, and has announced that 12 members of its “country over party” committee will choose its presidential nominee.
No Labels organizers have issued a number of conflicting statements, including the suggestion that if the candidacy is not going well in August of 2024, they would simply pull the plug. Nancy Jacobsen, the group’s founder, told NBC News that“If the crowds aren’t coming out . . . we’re getting out of this. We can get out of this by the end of August, pull the plug, [that’s the] latest we can get off the ballot.” But as Third Way, a nonprofit critical of No Labels has objected, the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin do not permit withdrawals after a minor party candidate is certified and paperwork is submitted.
No Labels claims that it is only interested in fielding a ticket that can win outright and has no desire to serve as a spoiler. But polling shows that even a nationally known figure like Haley would only claim 9 percent of the vote in a four-way race that also contained Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Their projections also presume that a No Labels candidate would carry states that Biden won by double-digit margins in 2020.
No Labels is playing a dangerous game. Some believe it has forfeited the benefit of the doubt and is a full-fledged stalking horse for Trump. It wouldn’t be so dangerous were it not for feckless lightweights like John Lehman.
