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Travis's avatar

Even beyond the dominant media, Biden's passions around democracy/J6th, and the majority of the national electorate being where Joe is on democracy/J6th, there are other coming tailwinds that work in Joe's favor:

1) Consumers are a lagging indicator as the economy gets better, and so those numbers will start coming around as we get closer to November (consumer sentiment lags economic metrics by 6-9 months)

2) Trump has less of an ability to *drive* a narrative and instead is in a position where he has to be *reactive* to things out of his control as opposed to driving things that are in his control. This is where his long court schedule this year comes into play, and that's the system driving the narrative against him while he reacts to it as opposed to him driving the narrative ahead of the system. That hurts his own messaging abilities and makes him look like a reactive weakling rather than a guy in control.

3) More evidence comes out against Trump during trials. Forget convictions and sentencings, just the volume of bad evidence against Trump that comes out during trials is going to do *political* damage to Trump, and as a guy whose future relies on suburban voters in a handful of districts in 4 states, that's going to do bad political damage against him in a race where he can't afford to lose voters in those places. If he loses even 3% of those voters that's a big fuggin deal for the VSG.

4) Biden is going to make this about the threat to democracy posed by Trump as opposed to a referendum on Biden's own presidency--a narrative shift in the election that helps Joe and hurts Trump by making the election be defined by Trump's risks rather than by Biden's successes/failures. For an electorate that isn't strong on the details of politics but responds well to fear, this is a strategy that advantages Biden and disadvantages Trump.

5) Abortion politics are still in play and that's still a factor for Trump with respect to negative polarization and vengeance politics.

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Pat P.'s avatar

Every R I know, except for my friends here in the Tri-State region will vote for Trump though they absolutely depise him. Better an R than a D in the Whitehouse, so they think.. Here at home, no one will ever vote for Trump. We lived with this dreadful person for 30-plus years. Everyone knows better and no one here will vote for a criminal. Ask any worker who never was paid and went into bankrupsy. There are thousands.

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