This time tomorrow, you will (probably) have survived one of the most extraordinary days in American politics. And, if the polls are right, it will mark the end of the Trump presidency. Or at least the beginning of the end.
Welcome to the Countdown Journal. There are now ZERO days until Election Day, but 78 days until the Inauguration.
Some personal thoughts. I’ve been Never Trump since before Donald Trump came down the golden escalator. I remember back in 2012, when there were some initial rumblings that he might run for president, I devoted a segment of my (then) radio show to the the Topic, “You Can’t Be Serious?”
This was never a tough choice for me. Back in May 2016, I explained why I was not joining other conservatives who were boarding the Trump train.
SYKES: Donald Trump is a serial liar, a con man who mocks the disabled and women. He’s a narcissist and a bully, a man with no fixed principles who has the vocabulary of an emotionally insecure nine-year-old. So no, I don’t want to give him control of the IRS, the FBI, and the nuclear codes. That’s just me.
MEGYN KELLY: Tell us how you really feel. It doesn’t sound like there’s a lot of wiggle room there, Charlie.
SYKES: I do see the rats swimming towards the sinking ship. But at some point—if you understand, and this is not just ideological, it’s not just the fact that he’s abandoned one position after another, or that he has a penchant for internet hoaxes or conspiracy theories. I mean a week ago tonight, remember, he was peddling the notion that Ted Cruz’s dad had something to do with the JFK assassination. So there are people who say that just because of party loyalty we’re supposed to forget all of that. I just don’t buy it.
Because I’ve cautioned my fellow conservatives, you embrace Donald Trump, you embrace it all. You embrace every slur, every insult, every outrage, every falsehood. You’re going to spend the next six months defending, rationalizing, evading all that. And afterwards, you come back to women, to minorities, to young people and say, that wasn’t us. That’s not what we’re about. The reality is, if you support him to be president of the United States, that is who you are, and you own it.
And I never changed my mind, despite sophisticated appeals like this from the Orange Man Himself:
I will admit that it was worse than I thought.
The capitulation of the GOP was more complete and craven than I could have imagined. The Invasion of the Body Snatchers claimed far more victims than I could possibly have guessed. The damage to the conservative movement was deeper and more extensive. And I can measure the last five years in lost friends and illusions.
But I’m waking up on Election Day 2020, with absolutely no regrets, no matter how it turns out. I’ve been extraordinarily lucky to fall in with a doughty band of brothers and sisters who kept the faith and took a stand. I’m proud of each and every one of them.
While some in the conservative movement will look back on this period with regret, shame, or amnesia, we will know that we gave it our best shot. We left everything on the field. Now it’s up to the voters.
One last thought:
What happens tonight? This guy could be right (but I wouldn’t count on it):
My advice: prepare for a long slog, and don’t be mislead by the swings in early reported votes (which may skew toward Trump, even if he is being soundly defeated).
Remember. You are invited.
The GOP’s One Last Chance: If Donald Trump loses Tuesday’s election, Republicans will face their final test of the Trump Era: How far will they let him go?
Will they push back against Trump’s threats to prematurely declare victory? Will they challenge his attacks on the legitimacy of the result, or his endorsement of vigilantism and voter intimidation?
Will GOP elected officials publicly stand up against attempts to suppress the vote, or lawsuits that try to throw out votes that have already been cast?
What if he moves to fire the FBI director, or the head of the Centers for Disease Control, or even the Secretary of Defense? Will Republicans oppose attempts to remove science advisors during the pandemic, or to retaliate against critics like Dr. Anthony Fauci? Or now, Deborah Birx?
Will they push Trump to agree to an orderly, peaceful transition of power?
In other words, will they take one last chance to put country over party?
If history is any guide, we are likely to be disappointed.
But unless Republicans finally draw a line they have so far failed to draw, they may doom their party to a generation of infamy. More important, they may help plunge the nation into chaos.
Even after a Trump defeat, many of them will still be afraid of offending the base. As a result, it would probably take a critical mass of Republican leaders to tell Trump that it was time for him to go.
The number of Republicans who have been willing to put country over party in the Trump era has been vanishingly small.
But in the days ahead they may have one last chance. Why do I suspect they will blow it?
Some reasons to be optimistic from Sarah Longwell:
I went back and surveyed our focus group participants since April. Of the 76 women who voted for Trump in 2016, only 36 are voting for President Trump again; 28 are voting for Joe Biden; 8 are going for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen; and 2 aren’t voting / are writing someone in. (Side note: 30 of these respondents were from Pennsylvania. Only 14 from that group were voting for Trump again.)
Now the participants in my focus groups were all people who voted for the president, but rated him as doing a “very bad job.” So I’m polling from the most disenchanted slice of Trump voters. But the fact is, with more than 60 percent of registered voters saying the country is on the wrong track, there are a lot of disenchanted Trump voters out there. And Trump doesn’t have to lose half of them in order to get roasted. If he were to lose even 2 percent of his 2016 base, then he has no path to victory.
Which brings me to my election prediction—and my general cause for optimism.
I believe Donald Trump is going to lose this election. I believe he is going to lose badly. I believe he is going to take the Republican Senate majority down with him. I believe it will be a defeat of historic proportions that flips a couple formerly taken-for-granted red states.
An Election Eve stunner. It took Deborah Birx this long to realize that all of this was a disaster. It was apparently too much for the inveterate loyalist. Via the Wapo: “Top Trump adviser bluntly contradicts president on covid-19 threat, urging all-out response”.
“We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic … leading to increasing mortality,” said the Nov. 2 report from Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force. “This is not about lockdowns — It hasn’t been about lockdowns since March or April. It’s about an aggressive balanced approach that is not being implemented.”
Birx’s internal report, shared with top White House and agency officials, contradicts Trump on numerous points: While the president holds large campaign events with hundreds of attendees, most without masks, she explicitly warns against them. While the president blames rising cases on more testing, she says testing is “flat or declining” in many areas where cases are rising. And while Trump says the country is “rounding the turn,” Birx notes the country is entering its most dangerous period yet and will see more than 100,000 new cases a day this week.
Unfortunately, it likely comes too late.
Last minute swing state polls. Via CNBC:
Joe Biden holds at least narrow leads over Donald Trump in the six 2020 election swing states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a CNBC/Change Research poll.
The survey taken in the final stretch before Election Day also finds Democrats hold an edge in three pivotal Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina.
68% of voters in the states say they have already cast their ballots.
Today’s the day.
Quick Hits
1. ICYMI: Law And Order in Trump’s America
In New York and New Jersey, Trump supporters formed up caravans that they used to block traffic on the Mario Cuomo Bridge and along the New Jersey Parkway.
In Texas, another caravan of Trump trucks—the president did warn America about outlaw caravans!—attempted to run a Biden campaign bus off of the highway. These very fine people were then cheered by the president, who later, via Twitter, directed the FBI not to investigate them. The local sheriff blamed the Biden campaign for not notifying them that they were passing through, as if we live in the Old West.
Marchers exercising their civil rights are pepper-sprayed. Political opponents of the White House are routinely threatened with jailing by the president and targeted by vigilante mobs of his supporters who largely act with impunity.
Such is the state of LAW & ORDER in America on the eve of the 2020 presidential election.
2. What To Watch For Tonight
Richard North Patterson provides a handy guide to watching the returns that matter:
All this also bears on how swiftly to expect final returns from particular states. It helps to know the practices in each, and when their election officials expect a completed count. Those states which have a reasonably final count on November 3, or within hours thereafter, may preview the ultimate winner.
Here’s what to anticipate from the six battleground states:
Arizona. The state begins counting mail-in ballots prior to election day. Election officials expect a reasonably final count on Tuesday evening.
Florida. Florida begins processing mail-in ballots early—and disqualifies those received after election day. Despite its tangled history, we can anticipate a fairly complete—though perhaps inconclusive—count within hours after the polls close. As in Arizona, early returns may be skewed toward mail-in ballots.
Michigan. Although a new law enacted last month allows some Michigan jurisdictions to begin processing ballots on the eve of the election (today), no ballots are actually counted prior to election day, and officials don’t predict complete results until November 6.
North Carolina. The state processes mail-in ballots early, and counts ballots postmarked by election day and received by November 12. The early returns will favor mail-in ballots; the later in-person ballots. But officials estimate that roughly 98 percent of ballots will be reported on election night.
Pennsylvania. This year’s primary was a mess—it took six days to count mail-in ballots—and the general election should be even worse. Because Pennsylvania processes no ballots early, official hopes that “the overwhelming majority” will be counted by November 6 may prove aspirational. Amid a nationwide delay in delivering mail-in ballots to voters, the problem seems particularly acute in Philadelphia—auguring late-arrived ballots. That most mail-in ballots will be tallied last will generate further controversy.
Wisconsin. Tabulation starts when the polls close. However, officials expect the count to be substantially complete by November 3 or 4.
Cheap Shots
Lots of cheap shots today. And all richly deserved.
Hugh Hewitt’s hottest election take:
Trump was right.
Deep Thoughts
1. Stuart Stevens: To My Fellow George W. Bush Supporters
To those who supported George W. Bush with me and now support Donald Trump, I say: This is your choice. It’s not about who Donald Trump is, but about who you are. Does pledging your allegiance and support for this man actually make you feel better about yourself and the country? I don’t believe it. I refuse to believe that each of you are that shallow, that each of you have such a nihilistic view of public life that you can feel good about this choice.
Your support of Trump doesn’t make me angry. It makes me sad. Because it means you have bargained with yourself and decided that your values weren’t worth defending.
Donald Trump is going to lose. Republicans are going to lose the Senate. But defeat in politics is transitory. Shame is forever. I’m sorry. It didn’t have to be this way.