Let's not forget about what we need to do with our ticket. As it is now more important than ever. In making this decision there is no need to read polls as the needed margin to win is lost in the rounding. Rather, just apply some basic logic.
The case to replace Biden:
All that matters are swing state 'double haters', or given the tragic e…
Let's not forget about what we need to do with our ticket. As it is now more important than ever. In making this decision there is no need to read polls as the needed margin to win is lost in the rounding. Rather, just apply some basic logic.
The case to replace Biden:
All that matters are swing state 'double haters', or given the tragic events of Saturday, maybe we should call them "double dislikers" . In 2020, a vigorous and coherent Biden faced an unpopular president, and even then only won by a razor thin margin. In 2024 he is the unpopular one (undeservedly so) who is not vigorous nor particularly coherent. It's inconceivable that he can hold that margin. Those who think elsewise remind me of the Paul Simon line in 'The Boxer', "A man sees what he wants and disregards the rest".
How to find the right candidate to replace him:
Any candidate will, at a minimum, hold the voters that Biden currently has. Does anybody really think that swing state double hater is going to say to themselves "I dislike Trump so much that I will vote for a senile old incoherent man that I also dislike. But if the dems give me a young likeable candidate who can speak coherently, then forget, I will vote for Trump". So the question comes down to- can the new candidate capture enough swing state 'double haters' to win.
Who is the potential new candidate:
Who will add the most vote comes down to two factors. Their 'turn off' factor and their 'appeal' factor. Do they have enough 'appeal' to offset their 'turn off'. Again, we are only talking about the perceptions of the swing voters who will decide this election. I think that both Newsom and Harris have a turn off factor with their only appeal to the swing state 'double haters' being that they are not Biden. The popular swing state Governors have a demonstrated a significant appeal to swing voters that more than offsets any potential turn-offs. My preference would be Whitmer over Shapiro. Whitmer has some of that plain spoken 'Scranton Joe' to her. It is probably too soon to say this, but she also has a story of bravely facing down a threat to her life. Mitigating, somewhat, the story that will now surround Trump.
Biden is often quite coherent. Doesn't really excuse his moments of baffling ineptitude. But swing voters may prefer someone with character to someone without. We'll see.
we have a number of other candidates with character AND are young and always coherent. Biden had been a very effective president and doesn't deserve his low approval rating, but he has one. It is what it is, we have other candidates who would have a much much higher odds to defeat Trump. There is too much at stake to not put forward our best chance, especially since Biden's odds are well below 50/50.
She said that she hadn't really ever thought about running., but said that she is prepared to answer the call to come to our rescue of the country. According to an aid not wanting to talk on the record regarding private conversations. :)
Let's not forget about what we need to do with our ticket. As it is now more important than ever. In making this decision there is no need to read polls as the needed margin to win is lost in the rounding. Rather, just apply some basic logic.
The case to replace Biden:
All that matters are swing state 'double haters', or given the tragic events of Saturday, maybe we should call them "double dislikers" . In 2020, a vigorous and coherent Biden faced an unpopular president, and even then only won by a razor thin margin. In 2024 he is the unpopular one (undeservedly so) who is not vigorous nor particularly coherent. It's inconceivable that he can hold that margin. Those who think elsewise remind me of the Paul Simon line in 'The Boxer', "A man sees what he wants and disregards the rest".
How to find the right candidate to replace him:
Any candidate will, at a minimum, hold the voters that Biden currently has. Does anybody really think that swing state double hater is going to say to themselves "I dislike Trump so much that I will vote for a senile old incoherent man that I also dislike. But if the dems give me a young likeable candidate who can speak coherently, then forget, I will vote for Trump". So the question comes down to- can the new candidate capture enough swing state 'double haters' to win.
Who is the potential new candidate:
Who will add the most vote comes down to two factors. Their 'turn off' factor and their 'appeal' factor. Do they have enough 'appeal' to offset their 'turn off'. Again, we are only talking about the perceptions of the swing voters who will decide this election. I think that both Newsom and Harris have a turn off factor with their only appeal to the swing state 'double haters' being that they are not Biden. The popular swing state Governors have a demonstrated a significant appeal to swing voters that more than offsets any potential turn-offs. My preference would be Whitmer over Shapiro. Whitmer has some of that plain spoken 'Scranton Joe' to her. It is probably too soon to say this, but she also has a story of bravely facing down a threat to her life. Mitigating, somewhat, the story that will now surround Trump.
Biden is often quite coherent. Doesn't really excuse his moments of baffling ineptitude. But swing voters may prefer someone with character to someone without. We'll see.
we have a number of other candidates with character AND are young and always coherent. Biden had been a very effective president and doesn't deserve his low approval rating, but he has one. It is what it is, we have other candidates who would have a much much higher odds to defeat Trump. There is too much at stake to not put forward our best chance, especially since Biden's odds are well below 50/50.
Have you asked Gretchen if she wants the job?
She said that she hadn't really ever thought about running., but said that she is prepared to answer the call to come to our rescue of the country. According to an aid not wanting to talk on the record regarding private conversations. :)