BTW Catherine, I loved the vid you did with Sam and JVL on RFL-Jr vs Dunkin Doughnuts. I've listened to it a few times with spouse and adult daughters and it was hilarious each time. The daughter from Connecticut (with friends in the Boston area) found it particularly amusing. I hope projects like that help keep y'all sane - I know it lifted my mood big time!
Trump started this because Bibi Netanyahu wanted it. He plays Trump like a fiddle (actually, fiddles are hard to play. He plays Trump more like a kazoo).
Trump eliminated all EV incentives and then started an oil war in the Persian Gulf. COULD HE HATE AMERICAN CONSUMERS ANY MORE? Go buy a cheap used EV before prices go way up.
I think there is one more area that should be considered in terms of inflationary impacts as a result of the war in Iran. Many of the things you noted in the article that will affect the level of prices in the short to medium term will, as noted in the article. lead to higher rates of inflation. That will have an impact on the fed's ability to lower interest rates in the short to medium term. Higher interest rates than would otherwise be the case will have impacts on housing and automobile sales, two purchases that generally require significant amounts of lending. Credit card interest rates could also be affected.
All of this is in areas in which Trump has been trying to devise solutions to affordability issues. There are the short lived 50 year mortgage proposal and capping interest rates on credit cards, amongst others. None of the proposals seem to be going anywhere, but the fact that Trump is either making the proposals or re-tweeting other peoples' proposals shows that he at least thinks they are problems that have to be addressed. The war is going to move reality in a direction that he will not favor, probably leading to more hare brained ideas blurted out without much thinking or analysis.
The timing of the impacts of war related supply disruptions could begin to be felt around the time Kevin Warsh would be set to become the next chairman of the Fed (assuming that Senator Tillis lets his nomination proceed.) It will be interesting to see how rate decisions play out in the new regime. Will Warsh push for Trump's desired level of accommodation or will he suffer the fate of Jerome Powell by refusing to go along the boss's wishes?
You mentioned you don't think Trump could have had a more negative impact on prices even if he were trying to do so. I think his choice of timing could not have been worse. Unless, miraculously the war is over by the end of March, the inflationary costs of the war will be felt as the mid-terms get close, the worst possible time for 47 and his MAGA cohorts in Congress.
Mass deportations hurt the economy in several ways, not just a depletion in the agricultural workforce. It also reduces labor availability in construction, food processing, the hospitality sector and health care, particularly home health care. We are paying a very big price to cater to the desires of racists, like Stephen Miller.
There is a letter written by a well respected businessman from the Persian Gulf States that ripped several strips right off agent krasnov's hide. It mostly dealt with the people of the Middle East not having a say in their countries being put into a war. It questioned what happened to the billions that agent orange's Board of Peace was given by the very countries now being under retaliation by the Iran military. It pointed out several of the contradictions between what agent krasnov has said and what he has done. My wife saw it on Facebook from MeidasTouch, but I don't have the name of the person who wrote it.
I just bought gas today at my cheapo station for 3:15 (everywhere else it was closer to 3:40). Last time I bought gas it was 2:85, before that 2:69. It always takes a few iterations for consumers to get the message. Check back Drump's approval ratings in 3 weeks.
Love the article Catherine. Let us know which Friday you’ll be on Marketplace. Stock prices today finally broke from their bizzaro world of bad things (war, prices,etc) not mattering and stocks gaining. I think TACO over under is maybe 46000 on Dow and similar% drops in s and p and nasdaq. Iran is not a “good” country by any means but I think they’re figuring out that Hormuz is the strategic key to cause worldwide pain by closing it. I think someone will tell hegseth in about 3 weeks and then taco comes out and says the Iranians agreed to his conditions of surrender and Fox News will go look for the mission accomplished banner and the sherple will go back to asking for Hillary’s and Hunters emails and look we’ve painted the Kennedy center gold. As long as Congress and his business enablers allow this, it will go on. Joe Sixpack better settle in for 3.75 a gallon gas and damn that Obama tan suit!
BTW Catherine, I loved the vid you did with Sam and JVL on RFL-Jr vs Dunkin Doughnuts. I've listened to it a few times with spouse and adult daughters and it was hilarious each time. The daughter from Connecticut (with friends in the Boston area) found it particularly amusing. I hope projects like that help keep y'all sane - I know it lifted my mood big time!
Thank you for the “Listen” option. I enjoy your articles and don’t always have the time to read.
It’s up $0.50 in a week in MPLS.
Yes! I've been using this for awhile, and I'm so happy to have professional vindication from Catherine. Underpants gnomes:
1) Steal underpants
2) ???
3) Profit!
Catherine, thanks for "connecting economic dots" that many of us would not notice.
Trump started this because Bibi Netanyahu wanted it. He plays Trump like a fiddle (actually, fiddles are hard to play. He plays Trump more like a kazoo).
Trump eliminated all EV incentives and then started an oil war in the Persian Gulf. COULD HE HATE AMERICAN CONSUMERS ANY MORE? Go buy a cheap used EV before prices go way up.
I think there is one more area that should be considered in terms of inflationary impacts as a result of the war in Iran. Many of the things you noted in the article that will affect the level of prices in the short to medium term will, as noted in the article. lead to higher rates of inflation. That will have an impact on the fed's ability to lower interest rates in the short to medium term. Higher interest rates than would otherwise be the case will have impacts on housing and automobile sales, two purchases that generally require significant amounts of lending. Credit card interest rates could also be affected.
All of this is in areas in which Trump has been trying to devise solutions to affordability issues. There are the short lived 50 year mortgage proposal and capping interest rates on credit cards, amongst others. None of the proposals seem to be going anywhere, but the fact that Trump is either making the proposals or re-tweeting other peoples' proposals shows that he at least thinks they are problems that have to be addressed. The war is going to move reality in a direction that he will not favor, probably leading to more hare brained ideas blurted out without much thinking or analysis.
The timing of the impacts of war related supply disruptions could begin to be felt around the time Kevin Warsh would be set to become the next chairman of the Fed (assuming that Senator Tillis lets his nomination proceed.) It will be interesting to see how rate decisions play out in the new regime. Will Warsh push for Trump's desired level of accommodation or will he suffer the fate of Jerome Powell by refusing to go along the boss's wishes?
You mentioned you don't think Trump could have had a more negative impact on prices even if he were trying to do so. I think his choice of timing could not have been worse. Unless, miraculously the war is over by the end of March, the inflationary costs of the war will be felt as the mid-terms get close, the worst possible time for 47 and his MAGA cohorts in Congress.
Our stable genius, has crossed that line. Unfortunately there are no adults in the room to take control.
Maybe he just wants the 99% to become Serfs to the 1% , so he can go back to his golf game.
Regarding world trade and energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz in light of our undeclared war against Iran, I offer this analysis:
https://youtu.be/lwSLe1qWpSs?si=IgOo_2vVgXLXk03X
Cruz and Scott propose an additional $200b tax cut - in the midst of an undeclared but actual global war?
- The FY2026 budget deficit is currently $697 billion USD (https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/).
- The U.S. national debt, as of March 2026, is $39 billion USD (https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/debt-dashboard).
Yes, those very smart individuals are very stable geniuses standing in the shadow cast by their god.
Mass deportations hurt the economy in several ways, not just a depletion in the agricultural workforce. It also reduces labor availability in construction, food processing, the hospitality sector and health care, particularly home health care. We are paying a very big price to cater to the desires of racists, like Stephen Miller.
There is a letter written by a well respected businessman from the Persian Gulf States that ripped several strips right off agent krasnov's hide. It mostly dealt with the people of the Middle East not having a say in their countries being put into a war. It questioned what happened to the billions that agent orange's Board of Peace was given by the very countries now being under retaliation by the Iran military. It pointed out several of the contradictions between what agent krasnov has said and what he has done. My wife saw it on Facebook from MeidasTouch, but I don't have the name of the person who wrote it.
This is a great article, but those graphs with the sharp uptick really do tell the story
The inflation of gasoline prices has hit. Gasoline was $2.69 per gallon on February 24 and $3.19 on March 3.
I just bought gas today at my cheapo station for 3:15 (everywhere else it was closer to 3:40). Last time I bought gas it was 2:85, before that 2:69. It always takes a few iterations for consumers to get the message. Check back Drump's approval ratings in 3 weeks.
Love the article Catherine. Let us know which Friday you’ll be on Marketplace. Stock prices today finally broke from their bizzaro world of bad things (war, prices,etc) not mattering and stocks gaining. I think TACO over under is maybe 46000 on Dow and similar% drops in s and p and nasdaq. Iran is not a “good” country by any means but I think they’re figuring out that Hormuz is the strategic key to cause worldwide pain by closing it. I think someone will tell hegseth in about 3 weeks and then taco comes out and says the Iranians agreed to his conditions of surrender and Fox News will go look for the mission accomplished banner and the sherple will go back to asking for Hillary’s and Hunters emails and look we’ve painted the Kennedy center gold. As long as Congress and his business enablers allow this, it will go on. Joe Sixpack better settle in for 3.75 a gallon gas and damn that Obama tan suit!