If you want to get a good discussion of the lunacy and danger of the newest Trump Trade War (he apparently did this same thing on a much smaller scale in 2018 with his advisor…Peter Navarro), here’s a link to the John Oliver explainer from Saturday night. It really helps to laugh at the tragedy, not that the tragedy is funny, but Oliver’s presentation certainly is. Fact-filled funny.
China "holds the cards", they know it, Trump probably worries that they might. Despite this, he has gone "all in", and China is calling his bluff. Trump is squirming, and this is part of why he pulled back on the electronics tariff.
China holds the cards, because the US doesn't have the leverage over their economy that Trump thinks. Some people probably think that the over half their (50%+) economy is tied to exports to the US. Others may feel it is not that large, but still significant. perhaps being 20% of their economy is tied to US exports.
The real number is that 20% of China's GDP is due to total exports. The US represents 15% of their total exports, so, 20% * 15% = 3%. Losing 3% of their GDP may cause a recession, but not crushing.
Electronics, that were paused, are about 25% of their US exports, so now that means our tariffs only threaten about 2.25% of their GDP, probably not enough to even cause a recession.
There are two factors that could mitigate of much that 2.25%. If China strikes deals with the other nations in increase their imports by 10%, then (2.25% less 85% * 10%) that lowers the 2.25% down to only 1.4%.
A problem that China has been seeing is that the populations savings rate is too high. China has been discussing how to increase internal consumption. The have been toying with the idea of a stimulus to do that. The trade war could be the forcing function to get the government to do that stimulus. Bottom line is that Trump's tariff war may be doing a favor for China, forcing them to fix their internal demand problem.
For the US, a trade war has greater leverage on our economy than the numbers would suggest. While imports from China are small compared to the size of our overall economy, the "inputs" to our economy (i.e. component parts in products we produce) are widespread and will have a significant inpact. We have a diverse J-I-T (just in time) supply chain, so even just one small input (component) can be very disruptive! Then, of course, there is the critical, and rare, minerals that also create leverage.
China is holding all the cards, while Trump has gone 'all in' on a losing hand.
Rather than following the motto, "In God We Trust" on our increasingly less valuable coins, I suggest we follow the book title of the humorist, radio personality and author Jean Shepherd, best known for the film adaptation of his short stories in "A Christmas Story":
On tariffs, its increasingly clear that Trump, despite many years to plan ahead, bumbled into his "reciprocal" tariffs and just assumed it would all work out great. Going forward, without a plan, he will bang back and forth like a pinball played by Tommy, the blind boy, but minus the wizardry.
When the government taxes some, and redistributes to others, MAGA calls that socialism.
Like in Trump's first term when he redistributed most of the tariff tax receipts from the middle/working classes, and then gave that as subsidies to farmers who had been hurt by China's retaliatory tariffs.
The so-called trade war is just a facet of what appears to be a classic pump and dump fraud perpetrated in this instance by the T. Rump criminal enterprise, duly elected by the notoriously fickle American electorate to do whatever the enterprise wants. Yay.
I know this is off topic, but why is no one talking about this cognitive test that krasnov is so proud he passes every time? As someone who has gone to many doctor appointments with an aging father, I can tell you the questions that are included:
Do you know where you are? Where are you? What town are you in? Do you know why you're here? Where do you live? What year is it? What month is it? What day is it? What time is it,approximately? Who is currently the president of the United States? Please draw a clock face with this time (given in numbers).
I think he can easily answer those. Using them as a marker would just make it look like he’s “fine” because he’s pass that test. This is not cognitive decline we have seen with our loved ones. He’s a malignant narcissist. Aging probably exacerbates his sociopathy in ways that don’t affect his understanding of what the day is.
Trump is running up against the edges of the “reality” he has insulated himself in. He truly thinks other people will just bow down because he only surrounds himself with those who do. My guess is he’s truly confused as to why it’s going this way because, to a sociopath like him, all people are non-playable characters without their own needs or feelings. Only his feelings matter, and he has crafted his life to spare his feelings and his ego from harm.
It's time to start saving bread twist ties and washing out Glad bags. It's time to save rather than spend. It's time to be a one-car clan. Don't do this because you have to (though you might). Do it because it will hurt Trump in his most vulnerable place, "His economy." He can't make you keep capitalism chugging along. Live a creative, simple life and you'll be fucking up his plan for self-glorification. It's my raison d'etre.
I have read you say this several times and told myself not to respond...I am just pretty frustrated with a lot of things right now, and one of them being, that I already am not wealthy enough to live well...I don't know how more I could give up
Angie, I am frustrated with the way things are. I have watched and been worried about the very things we're watching unfold. I feel I/we should do something, but I'm not sure what would be effective. Sign carrying feels hollow to me, as well as ineffective. I have tried to think of something I could do that would make an incremental difference. Knowing that Trump measures his personal value in dollars and cents and his success in GDP graphs. It's just an idea, and a voluntary one at that.
Passive resistance (civil disobedience) requires a more significant sacrifice. It is another way to make a difference, but risky. El Salvador does not seem worth it. Isn't that Trump's point?
Regarding trust in elected officials, I'm incapable of it anymore.
I trusted Chris Christie and he turned out to be utterly useless when the time came. Nikki Haley? Same thing. Worthless. She had the tools to do the right thing, but lacked the skill to use them. George W. Bush? C'mon. Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq? I trusted that guy, like a lot of other people. And look what happened. He still hasn't owned up to it. Even Barack Obama. The hero worship of that man, in certain quarters, rivalled anything Trump gets from his cult. He was a politician to me and I've been burned too many times by politicians.
I trusted The Lincoln Project. They turned out to be grifters. Now I have Adam Kinsinger in my email box every day. Should I send him money? I'll admit I like and admire the guy. I agree with what he's saying, the same way I believed Rick Wilson and Michael Steele. My instinct is to donate, but, in the back of my mind, I'm thinking ... "You voted for Denny Hastert once upon a time and he turned out to be a pedophile..."
If I've got to choose between God and elected officials, I'm with Bill on this. God's more reliable.
If you're going to donate, do not donate to a political campaign. That's useless. Donate to an organization that can actually use your money to do some good.
Noah Smith: “For example, if Taiwan gets invaded or bombed by China or struck by a massive earthquake, the world’s chip supply could be seriously damaged, because most of the factories of TSMC — the world’s dominant chipmaker — are in Taiwan. Thus, it makes sense to pressure or cajole TSMC into moving some of its factories to safer locations — the U.S., Japan, and elsewhere.”
What is going with the Trump administration and The Chips Act? I caught a statement from former Singapore diplomat Bilahari Kausikan about the impact of tariffs on Southeast Asia, and the risk they pose to the global economy. (NPR, Morning Edition, April 10, 2025). This: “People who know the semiconductor industry much, much, much, much better than I ever will tell me the U.S. is not ready. You don't have enough skilled semiconductor engineers or engineers of the right type. You don't have enough workers with the right skills. Now, in time, you will build that. You can build that. But that's not going to be done overnight.”
I view TSMC investment in US manufacturing as a training ground for American tech workers and next gen chip manufacturing, along with providing additional supply chain security outside of Taiwan. Further downstream, do we even have the technical capability to run a ASML machine? Where does all of this logical progression of American growth, security, and manufacturing sit with the current administration?
"So stick with the Psalmist, not Ms. Leavitt. Do not fear Trump. And do not trust Trump."
Bill, you don't need religion to know that, although they both start with the same two letters, that is the end of the similarity in your last two words. I would go one better: You can dis-trust and diss-Trump at the same time.
There is a phrase: he flies thru the air with the greatest of ease. I'll amend that to: he lies thru the air with the greatest of ease . After all he is the commander in cheat.
I don't believe I've seen much information in US media about the bond sales and why. Since I received a lot from Canadian sources, I know this. PM Carney is a Ph.D in economics. He's a really smart man who has gone up against the US with more power than the US imagined. Carney met with EU leaders and it is they who set off the bond sales in a show of economic force and control, causing the US to back down somewhat. I hope people will pay more attention to what is happening OUTSIDE the US to get better info that the MSM, now compromised, is providing.
Carney is essentially saying the same thing Trump is: "America has been ripping us off for years and it's not gonna happen anymore." The difference between him and Trump is he's bringing receipts and saying it in a calm, thoughtful (but strong) way. He's doing it right from my perspective and I hope he keeps it up. While Trump jumps around his cage flinging his poo around, Carney is putting his trade house in order.
I just would like to thank Cathy Young for reminding every one of how shitty the Babylon Bee is. Also their editor and chief Kyle Mann performed a sieg heil on a ride at Disney land.
If you want to get a good discussion of the lunacy and danger of the newest Trump Trade War (he apparently did this same thing on a much smaller scale in 2018 with his advisor…Peter Navarro), here’s a link to the John Oliver explainer from Saturday night. It really helps to laugh at the tragedy, not that the tragedy is funny, but Oliver’s presentation certainly is. Fact-filled funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zQ0WewZY50
Here’s Oliver’s episode from the 2018 Trump Trade War and the “brilliant” way that Peter Navarro got into the WH.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etkd57lPfPU
China "holds the cards", they know it, Trump probably worries that they might. Despite this, he has gone "all in", and China is calling his bluff. Trump is squirming, and this is part of why he pulled back on the electronics tariff.
China holds the cards, because the US doesn't have the leverage over their economy that Trump thinks. Some people probably think that the over half their (50%+) economy is tied to exports to the US. Others may feel it is not that large, but still significant. perhaps being 20% of their economy is tied to US exports.
The real number is that 20% of China's GDP is due to total exports. The US represents 15% of their total exports, so, 20% * 15% = 3%. Losing 3% of their GDP may cause a recession, but not crushing.
Electronics, that were paused, are about 25% of their US exports, so now that means our tariffs only threaten about 2.25% of their GDP, probably not enough to even cause a recession.
There are two factors that could mitigate of much that 2.25%. If China strikes deals with the other nations in increase their imports by 10%, then (2.25% less 85% * 10%) that lowers the 2.25% down to only 1.4%.
A problem that China has been seeing is that the populations savings rate is too high. China has been discussing how to increase internal consumption. The have been toying with the idea of a stimulus to do that. The trade war could be the forcing function to get the government to do that stimulus. Bottom line is that Trump's tariff war may be doing a favor for China, forcing them to fix their internal demand problem.
For the US, a trade war has greater leverage on our economy than the numbers would suggest. While imports from China are small compared to the size of our overall economy, the "inputs" to our economy (i.e. component parts in products we produce) are widespread and will have a significant inpact. We have a diverse J-I-T (just in time) supply chain, so even just one small input (component) can be very disruptive! Then, of course, there is the critical, and rare, minerals that also create leverage.
China is holding all the cards, while Trump has gone 'all in' on a losing hand.
Rather than following the motto, "In God We Trust" on our increasingly less valuable coins, I suggest we follow the book title of the humorist, radio personality and author Jean Shepherd, best known for the film adaptation of his short stories in "A Christmas Story":
"In God We Trust, All Others Pay Cash."
On tariffs, its increasingly clear that Trump, despite many years to plan ahead, bumbled into his "reciprocal" tariffs and just assumed it would all work out great. Going forward, without a plan, he will bang back and forth like a pinball played by Tommy, the blind boy, but minus the wizardry.
When tariffs are applied to various economic sectors based on the whims of the state, isn't that known as socialism?
When the government taxes some, and redistributes to others, MAGA calls that socialism.
Like in Trump's first term when he redistributed most of the tariff tax receipts from the middle/working classes, and then gave that as subsidies to farmers who had been hurt by China's retaliatory tariffs.
Bingo! We have a winner!
More like corruption, because it will be based on money and favors, not whims.
no
The so-called trade war is just a facet of what appears to be a classic pump and dump fraud perpetrated in this instance by the T. Rump criminal enterprise, duly elected by the notoriously fickle American electorate to do whatever the enterprise wants. Yay.
Barrett's coming around to more liberal principles makes me think we need to change the motto to "In God and Women We Trust".
I know this is off topic, but why is no one talking about this cognitive test that krasnov is so proud he passes every time? As someone who has gone to many doctor appointments with an aging father, I can tell you the questions that are included:
Do you know where you are? Where are you? What town are you in? Do you know why you're here? Where do you live? What year is it? What month is it? What day is it? What time is it,approximately? Who is currently the president of the United States? Please draw a clock face with this time (given in numbers).
And he's bragging about it.
I think he can easily answer those. Using them as a marker would just make it look like he’s “fine” because he’s pass that test. This is not cognitive decline we have seen with our loved ones. He’s a malignant narcissist. Aging probably exacerbates his sociopathy in ways that don’t affect his understanding of what the day is.
Trump is running up against the edges of the “reality” he has insulated himself in. He truly thinks other people will just bow down because he only surrounds himself with those who do. My guess is he’s truly confused as to why it’s going this way because, to a sociopath like him, all people are non-playable characters without their own needs or feelings. Only his feelings matter, and he has crafted his life to spare his feelings and his ego from harm.
It's time to start saving bread twist ties and washing out Glad bags. It's time to save rather than spend. It's time to be a one-car clan. Don't do this because you have to (though you might). Do it because it will hurt Trump in his most vulnerable place, "His economy." He can't make you keep capitalism chugging along. Live a creative, simple life and you'll be fucking up his plan for self-glorification. It's my raison d'etre.
I already read a simple life , and it will suck even more if it gets worse...been there, done that, not giving up what I worked so hard for
Thanks for considering an idea.
I have read you say this several times and told myself not to respond...I am just pretty frustrated with a lot of things right now, and one of them being, that I already am not wealthy enough to live well...I don't know how more I could give up
Angie, I am frustrated with the way things are. I have watched and been worried about the very things we're watching unfold. I feel I/we should do something, but I'm not sure what would be effective. Sign carrying feels hollow to me, as well as ineffective. I have tried to think of something I could do that would make an incremental difference. Knowing that Trump measures his personal value in dollars and cents and his success in GDP graphs. It's just an idea, and a voluntary one at that.
Passive resistance (civil disobedience) requires a more significant sacrifice. It is another way to make a difference, but risky. El Salvador does not seem worth it. Isn't that Trump's point?
Hang in there. I'm just brainstorming with y'all.
Perhaps we will see the motto: In Trump We Trust on Trump's meme coin right underneath his felony mug shot.
Regarding trust in elected officials, I'm incapable of it anymore.
I trusted Chris Christie and he turned out to be utterly useless when the time came. Nikki Haley? Same thing. Worthless. She had the tools to do the right thing, but lacked the skill to use them. George W. Bush? C'mon. Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq? I trusted that guy, like a lot of other people. And look what happened. He still hasn't owned up to it. Even Barack Obama. The hero worship of that man, in certain quarters, rivalled anything Trump gets from his cult. He was a politician to me and I've been burned too many times by politicians.
I trusted The Lincoln Project. They turned out to be grifters. Now I have Adam Kinsinger in my email box every day. Should I send him money? I'll admit I like and admire the guy. I agree with what he's saying, the same way I believed Rick Wilson and Michael Steele. My instinct is to donate, but, in the back of my mind, I'm thinking ... "You voted for Denny Hastert once upon a time and he turned out to be a pedophile..."
If I've got to choose between God and elected officials, I'm with Bill on this. God's more reliable.
If you're going to donate, do not donate to a political campaign. That's useless. Donate to an organization that can actually use your money to do some good.
I would, except every time I do, the guys running them turn out to not be what they appeared to be.
My motto is always be skeptical don't be cynical.
Noah Smith: “For example, if Taiwan gets invaded or bombed by China or struck by a massive earthquake, the world’s chip supply could be seriously damaged, because most of the factories of TSMC — the world’s dominant chipmaker — are in Taiwan. Thus, it makes sense to pressure or cajole TSMC into moving some of its factories to safer locations — the U.S., Japan, and elsewhere.”
What is going with the Trump administration and The Chips Act? I caught a statement from former Singapore diplomat Bilahari Kausikan about the impact of tariffs on Southeast Asia, and the risk they pose to the global economy. (NPR, Morning Edition, April 10, 2025). This: “People who know the semiconductor industry much, much, much, much better than I ever will tell me the U.S. is not ready. You don't have enough skilled semiconductor engineers or engineers of the right type. You don't have enough workers with the right skills. Now, in time, you will build that. You can build that. But that's not going to be done overnight.”
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/10/nx-s1-5352415/tariffs-impact-southeast-asian-countries-hard
I view TSMC investment in US manufacturing as a training ground for American tech workers and next gen chip manufacturing, along with providing additional supply chain security outside of Taiwan. Further downstream, do we even have the technical capability to run a ASML machine? Where does all of this logical progression of American growth, security, and manufacturing sit with the current administration?
We can continue to bring skilled workers here with visas. Problem solved.
We “get” Taiwan before the PRC does, obviously! Problem solved.
"So stick with the Psalmist, not Ms. Leavitt. Do not fear Trump. And do not trust Trump."
Bill, you don't need religion to know that, although they both start with the same two letters, that is the end of the similarity in your last two words. I would go one better: You can dis-trust and diss-Trump at the same time.
There is a phrase: he flies thru the air with the greatest of ease. I'll amend that to: he lies thru the air with the greatest of ease . After all he is the commander in cheat.
I don't believe I've seen much information in US media about the bond sales and why. Since I received a lot from Canadian sources, I know this. PM Carney is a Ph.D in economics. He's a really smart man who has gone up against the US with more power than the US imagined. Carney met with EU leaders and it is they who set off the bond sales in a show of economic force and control, causing the US to back down somewhat. I hope people will pay more attention to what is happening OUTSIDE the US to get better info that the MSM, now compromised, is providing.
Carney is essentially saying the same thing Trump is: "America has been ripping us off for years and it's not gonna happen anymore." The difference between him and Trump is he's bringing receipts and saying it in a calm, thoughtful (but strong) way. He's doing it right from my perspective and I hope he keeps it up. While Trump jumps around his cage flinging his poo around, Carney is putting his trade house in order.
We Americans can learn a lot from Canadians, especially Carney
I just would like to thank Cathy Young for reminding every one of how shitty the Babylon Bee is. Also their editor and chief Kyle Mann performed a sieg heil on a ride at Disney land.