Trump’s Wager and the Avengers Initiative
People and institutions are collaborating with Trump because they believe that a future Democratic president won’t punish them. That should change.
Programming note: No Triad tomorrow, because writing on Good Friday takes my darkness level to infinity and even I can’t handle that. I’ll be mostly off next week—around for some pods and an emergency newsletter if needed. But otherwise you’ll have my buddies filling in. —JVL
1. Deterrence
Why are so many big law firms agreeing to pay Danegeld to Donald Trump during his authoritarian takeover?
Why are so many tech companies allying with him?
Why are corporate media operations settling ludicrous lawsuits in his favor?
Why is the president of El Salvador doing his bidding?
Fear.
But fear of Donald Trump is only half of the story.
The other half is that these people and institutions have no fear of what might happen to them in a Democratic administration. Which creates something like a Pascal’s Wager for authoritarianism. Let’s call it Trump’s Wager.
Trump’s Wager says that liberal institutions should collaborate with an authoritarian, because if the authoritarian proves durable, then they will be saved. But if the liberal order reasserts itself, they do not have to fear retribution, since liberalism doesn’t do retribution.
The only protection against the logic of Trump’s Wager is deterrence. Democrats need to convince would-be collaborators that submission to Trump will come with an eventual price.
They need an Avengers Initiative.