Whenever I think of the current Repubican Party I think "Turtles all the way down", just an infinite regression of indescribable stupid and profane.
We are in a very serious mess in this country and it seems that very few people recognize the depth of the trouble.
I think a fair number of people recognize it--they are just unable to admit it or act upon that recognition because it would be either too psychologically painful or it would get in the way of personal ambition.
I think more than a fair number of people both recognize and admit this country is sliding into authoritarianism. We could reasonably infer from the 2020 election that at least 81,000,000 voters are aware. However, the average citizen is powerless to stop it. Even in 2016, a fair number of people both recognized and said out loud that Trump was a wannabe authoritarian who should not be allowed to be president. I worked very hard to get voters to understand and come out in numbers large enough to soundly repudiate Trump and send his base back under their rocks.
Clearly there was not enough concern or Trump would not have even come close to winning the electoral college. I was appalled when 75,000,000 voted for Trump the second time after four years of his chaos, corruption and incompetence. It took a 7,000,000 vote margin for Biden to get the exact same electoral college result as Trump did with a MINUS 3,000,000 margin. It should never have been that close, because Trump, for pete's sake.
Yep. And it worked. HRC got millions more votes despite the Russian hackers and influences and Jim Comey's dumping on her twice in defiance of agency policy. Etc.
I was more stunned in 2020 than in 2016 when I was sent into shock for weeks. 2020 and all that has followed has just made me numb and distant.
My son is a HS biology teacher. I asked him about CRT and he said he never heard of it mentioned in the district curriculum and at teacher's meetings it has neve been brought it up. And he teaches in California!
"CRT" might never be mentioned, but remember, for the GOP, CRT has become code for pretty much any mention of black people. That is how Florida banned math books with problems such as asking students to evaluate a graph of home ownership in America. The fact that black own disproportionately fewer homes is "uncomfortable."
81,000,000 average citizens voted for the Democrat. The rest are more than not concerned. They want an authoritarian as long as it is their brand of authoritarian who they imagine they are safe from. So yes, even though WE are in the majority, we may well be powerless to stop it, especially if some of the state legislatures get their way.
Ignorance is bliss. If you're white and Christian you're basically in no danger, except for a random mass shooting. If you're not Christian, or an immigrant from a non European country, especially, a non Christian country, and of course if your Black you might have something to worry about.
A fairly large chunk of the people that voted for Trump didn't vote FOR Trump or for authoritarianism. They voted AGAINST Democrats, mostly because of identity and because of a variety of excuses centered around poor reasoning, poor information, or faulty logic.
There are a lot of people who will vote against Democrats in the midterms because of inflation or CRT, or wokeism, or similar excuses. Again, this isn't a vote FOR the GoP, it is a vote against the party that happens to be in power and against Democrats.
You have a fairly influential (in EC politics) group of people in the middle who flip flop from election cycle to election cycle, tending to vote AGAINST the party in power--UNLESS they think that things are going very well for them on a personal, perceptual level. They like to think of themselves as independents--mostly they are just disgruntled oppositionists. These people vote "selfishly" and largely on the basis of the emotions of the moment (which is why advance polling is not particularly useful in predicting electoral results until JUST before an election).
This is a fairly small group, measured against population--but our institutions and electoral structure and demographics give them an outsized influence--just as those same things allow a minority party outsized influence.
Without a major event or black swan event, the votes of a majority of the population can be fairly easily predicted. What is less predictable is whether they will actually vote or not (turnout) and what the flip-floppers will do. A turnout of 60% or so in this country in a Presidential election year is considered good turnout. 2016 didn't quite hit 60%, 2020 hit around 66%.
IOW, almost half of the people who can vote don't, Largely because they do not care enough to vote or see it as a waste of time.
In 2020 Trump vote was roughly 47% (rounded up) of the 67% (rounded up) of the population that voted... or not quite 1/3 of the eligible voting population.
Most American governments are, in essence, MINORITY governments. That is another problem that this country has.
Yes, indeed, the key is to get out the vote. But of those who did vote for Trump, particularly in 2020, the vast majority DID want at least a soft authoritarianism. They have told us so in countless ways. They liked the fact that Trump bypassed established rules, norms and procedures to "get things done."
This is a rotten fruit of the current American system, where very little that doesn't help the already rich and powerful (or potentially serves as a bribe to the electorate, at least rhetorically if not substantively) gets done in substantive fashion.
Immigration reform? Nothing.
Social Security reform? Nothing.
Economics for the little people? Nothing.
Health care? A program that real people like as long as they don't know it's "Obamacare" Obamacare is bad, but that ACA thing isn't too bad... if my state government would give me access to it.
Now, it is not exactly true that nothing happens--but you wouldn't really know that by reading the papers or online media or watching TV... and THAT is part of the problem. Most people could not begin to tell you what was in the infrastructure bill or when it is or will be done and who it will help.
People want the government to, IDK, actually govern and have come to realize that it isn't going to happen under the existing rules--and because people are stupid (especially in large groups), rather than fix the system it is easier and quicker (in their minds) to break it. It will all work out okay in the end, right? Right.
I am not sure how any of that is relevant to my point that the average citizen is essentially powerless to do little more about any of it besides vote.
It is the only power the average citizen has ever had in this country and it is such a great power that politicians play all kinds of games with it (who can and can't vote and when and where and how) to try and make sure it comes out the way that THEY want.
But people have been repeatedly told that it isn't that much power. In reality, it is the ultimate power if you exercise it properly and thoughtfully.
It is relevant to the point in that it is looking at why people tend to vote the way they do. Having a data-based understanding of the how and why gives you the means to change things.
You have a partial point. The weakness is that you can only exercise it at election time. Between elections, the elected official has pretty much a free hand. Even at election time, often the choices aren't that great. For example, many people think Gavin Newsom should have been recalled. He survived the recall election easily because the vast majority of his FIFTY opposing candidates were worse. No one in the handful of opponents who were probably okay could possibly get enough votes to unseat Newsom. I think it was Tim who wrote about that recall election.
Whenever I think of the current Repubican Party I think "Turtles all the way down", just an infinite regression of indescribable stupid and profane.
We are in a very serious mess in this country and it seems that very few people recognize the depth of the trouble.
I think a fair number of people recognize it--they are just unable to admit it or act upon that recognition because it would be either too psychologically painful or it would get in the way of personal ambition.
I think more than a fair number of people both recognize and admit this country is sliding into authoritarianism. We could reasonably infer from the 2020 election that at least 81,000,000 voters are aware. However, the average citizen is powerless to stop it. Even in 2016, a fair number of people both recognized and said out loud that Trump was a wannabe authoritarian who should not be allowed to be president. I worked very hard to get voters to understand and come out in numbers large enough to soundly repudiate Trump and send his base back under their rocks.
Clearly there was not enough concern or Trump would not have even come close to winning the electoral college. I was appalled when 75,000,000 voted for Trump the second time after four years of his chaos, corruption and incompetence. It took a 7,000,000 vote margin for Biden to get the exact same electoral college result as Trump did with a MINUS 3,000,000 margin. It should never have been that close, because Trump, for pete's sake.
Yep. And it worked. HRC got millions more votes despite the Russian hackers and influences and Jim Comey's dumping on her twice in defiance of agency policy. Etc.
I was more stunned in 2020 than in 2016 when I was sent into shock for weeks. 2020 and all that has followed has just made me numb and distant.
The average citizen is not powerless to stop it--they could vote Democrat, even if they had to hold their nose and drink Pepto to do it.
But they aren't THAT concerned. Everything will work out in the end, amiright? They won't actually do the things they say they are going to do, right?
Besides, socialism and CRT are bad.
My son is a HS biology teacher. I asked him about CRT and he said he never heard of it mentioned in the district curriculum and at teacher's meetings it has neve been brought it up. And he teaches in California!
"CRT" might never be mentioned, but remember, for the GOP, CRT has become code for pretty much any mention of black people. That is how Florida banned math books with problems such as asking students to evaluate a graph of home ownership in America. The fact that black own disproportionately fewer homes is "uncomfortable."
Reality has NOTHING to do with it. Their sister's boyfriend's cousin told them how pervasive and evil it is.. and so did Tucker. Must be true.
Yeah. Really ignorant.
81,000,000 average citizens voted for the Democrat. The rest are more than not concerned. They want an authoritarian as long as it is their brand of authoritarian who they imagine they are safe from. So yes, even though WE are in the majority, we may well be powerless to stop it, especially if some of the state legislatures get their way.
Ignorance is bliss. If you're white and Christian you're basically in no danger, except for a random mass shooting. If you're not Christian, or an immigrant from a non European country, especially, a non Christian country, and of course if your Black you might have something to worry about.
A fairly large chunk of the people that voted for Trump didn't vote FOR Trump or for authoritarianism. They voted AGAINST Democrats, mostly because of identity and because of a variety of excuses centered around poor reasoning, poor information, or faulty logic.
There are a lot of people who will vote against Democrats in the midterms because of inflation or CRT, or wokeism, or similar excuses. Again, this isn't a vote FOR the GoP, it is a vote against the party that happens to be in power and against Democrats.
You have a fairly influential (in EC politics) group of people in the middle who flip flop from election cycle to election cycle, tending to vote AGAINST the party in power--UNLESS they think that things are going very well for them on a personal, perceptual level. They like to think of themselves as independents--mostly they are just disgruntled oppositionists. These people vote "selfishly" and largely on the basis of the emotions of the moment (which is why advance polling is not particularly useful in predicting electoral results until JUST before an election).
This is a fairly small group, measured against population--but our institutions and electoral structure and demographics give them an outsized influence--just as those same things allow a minority party outsized influence.
Without a major event or black swan event, the votes of a majority of the population can be fairly easily predicted. What is less predictable is whether they will actually vote or not (turnout) and what the flip-floppers will do. A turnout of 60% or so in this country in a Presidential election year is considered good turnout. 2016 didn't quite hit 60%, 2020 hit around 66%.
IOW, almost half of the people who can vote don't, Largely because they do not care enough to vote or see it as a waste of time.
In 2020 Trump vote was roughly 47% (rounded up) of the 67% (rounded up) of the population that voted... or not quite 1/3 of the eligible voting population.
Most American governments are, in essence, MINORITY governments. That is another problem that this country has.
Yes, indeed, the key is to get out the vote. But of those who did vote for Trump, particularly in 2020, the vast majority DID want at least a soft authoritarianism. They have told us so in countless ways. They liked the fact that Trump bypassed established rules, norms and procedures to "get things done."
This is a rotten fruit of the current American system, where very little that doesn't help the already rich and powerful (or potentially serves as a bribe to the electorate, at least rhetorically if not substantively) gets done in substantive fashion.
Immigration reform? Nothing.
Social Security reform? Nothing.
Economics for the little people? Nothing.
Health care? A program that real people like as long as they don't know it's "Obamacare" Obamacare is bad, but that ACA thing isn't too bad... if my state government would give me access to it.
Now, it is not exactly true that nothing happens--but you wouldn't really know that by reading the papers or online media or watching TV... and THAT is part of the problem. Most people could not begin to tell you what was in the infrastructure bill or when it is or will be done and who it will help.
People want the government to, IDK, actually govern and have come to realize that it isn't going to happen under the existing rules--and because people are stupid (especially in large groups), rather than fix the system it is easier and quicker (in their minds) to break it. It will all work out okay in the end, right? Right.
I am not sure how any of that is relevant to my point that the average citizen is essentially powerless to do little more about any of it besides vote.
It is the only power the average citizen has ever had in this country and it is such a great power that politicians play all kinds of games with it (who can and can't vote and when and where and how) to try and make sure it comes out the way that THEY want.
But people have been repeatedly told that it isn't that much power. In reality, it is the ultimate power if you exercise it properly and thoughtfully.
It is relevant to the point in that it is looking at why people tend to vote the way they do. Having a data-based understanding of the how and why gives you the means to change things.
You have a partial point. The weakness is that you can only exercise it at election time. Between elections, the elected official has pretty much a free hand. Even at election time, often the choices aren't that great. For example, many people think Gavin Newsom should have been recalled. He survived the recall election easily because the vast majority of his FIFTY opposing candidates were worse. No one in the handful of opponents who were probably okay could possibly get enough votes to unseat Newsom. I think it was Tim who wrote about that recall election.