Amongst all the bullshit Trump said Friday, there are two things that standout. One is extremely revealing, where Trump showed his cards of what he is unshakable position really is. The other where he showed his weakness.
He showed his cards when he said that both AND Putin were victims of the “Russia Hoax”. He revealed that he thinks tha…
Amongst all the bullshit Trump said Friday, there are two things that standout. One is extremely revealing, where Trump showed his cards of what he is unshakable position really is. The other where he showed his weakness.
He showed his cards when he said that both AND Putin were victims of the “Russia Hoax”. He revealed that he thinks that he and Putin are together are brothers in arms. It exposed to all of us that Trump will never take sides against Putin, and that there will never be any US security guarantee nor US backstop for peacekeepers. No matter how much Zelenskyy would have bit his tongue and kissed Trump’s ass, it would have made no difference. Things could have gone well, and Zelenskyy could have come home with a signed minerals deal, but that would have made no impact on where Trump wants the “peace” deal to end up. Europe can rush to patch things up and get a back on track for a peace deal, but it would never be one that would be acceptable for Ukraine and Europe, and never should it be for Americans either.
The other revealing statement is Trump’s comments that Zelenskyy is gambling with WW3. If Trump believes that, then it means that Trump as well, is gambling with WW3. If the potential for WW3 is at stake, then Trump has only two choices to avoid it. One is to stand-up to Putin, tell him to stop the war and pull back to pre-2022 borders, if not pre-2014 borders. Tell Putin that he has no choice, that we will crush him and his economy if he doesn’t acquiesce. There are no two ways about it, WW3 only happens if Putin takes it there. The other choice, which Trump seems to be making, is to be weak and kowtow to Putin, giving him what he wants in a peace deal, in other words, surrender to the aggressor. Trump’s statements show us what matters to him. In Trump’s mind “I don’t care if your gamble loses and we have WW3, as long as I can blame you”. That is what the meeting was all about.
All parties can dance around for a while pursuing a peace deal, but it will never work. The question is, does Russia or Ukraine benefit most from a cease fire pause? If we think it is best for Russia, allowing them time to regroup, then we need to make this negotiation dance be a quick-step. If we decide that Ukraine can benefit most, then let’s play the game and go through a slow waltz. In either case, action needs to be taken starting now in order to get Ukraine and the EU ready for going it alone in the war.
What will ultimately need to happen is for the EU to confiscate Russia’s frozen $300M, and use some of it, $100B or $200B, to buy weapons from the US and EU factories. Trump has to agree to two things. One is to sell weapons to Ukraine and the EU, and the other is to not lift US sanctions on Russia. The reality is that Putin is in bad shape. Years of fighting and 100’s of thousands of casualties, with very little progress made. The Russian economy is in struggling with 10+% inflation and 20% interest rates. The only thing keeping full employment is the war economy (and workforce losses in war causalities). Things can’t go on like this for forever for Russia. Whether it’s 12 months or 24 months, at some point Putin’s hold on leadership is threatened. The result being that Ukraine (and Europe) win, and Putin loses. The balance of the $300B is used to help rebuild Ukraine. Ukraine can then be put on a fast track for NATO membership.
Seizing the $300B, and Trump maintaining sanctions while selling Ukraine/Europe arms, is vital for this scenario to work out. Yes, there is some risk of the precedence that seizing the money creates. I heard some express concerns that this may cause companies to be unwilling to invest assets in the west in the future, favoring China/Russia, instead. That is preposterous, are authoritarian nations really safer for investments than the west? I suppose if you’re planning to invade another country, then yeah, don’t invest in the west. For everyone else, there is nothing to worry about. Besides, Russia has a history of taking “temporary management” of foreign companies.
If it plays out this way, that looks bad for Trump. He doesn’t get his Nobel peace prize, and he is shown to have been wrong in abandoning Ukraine by pushing for a “peace” surrender deal. If Trump does not agree to these two things, then Putin wins, Trump still doesn’t get his Nobel Peace prize and will be blamed for Russia’s victory.
Trump may be holding a number of cards, but only one is a winner that gets him his coveted Nobel Peace Prize. He has sent us clear signals by what he revealed in the oval office mugging, he has already discarded the winning one. America first, means America alone, and ultimately America as the #2 world power.
Amongst all the bullshit Trump said Friday, there are two things that standout. One is extremely revealing, where Trump showed his cards of what he is unshakable position really is. The other where he showed his weakness.
He showed his cards when he said that both AND Putin were victims of the “Russia Hoax”. He revealed that he thinks that he and Putin are together are brothers in arms. It exposed to all of us that Trump will never take sides against Putin, and that there will never be any US security guarantee nor US backstop for peacekeepers. No matter how much Zelenskyy would have bit his tongue and kissed Trump’s ass, it would have made no difference. Things could have gone well, and Zelenskyy could have come home with a signed minerals deal, but that would have made no impact on where Trump wants the “peace” deal to end up. Europe can rush to patch things up and get a back on track for a peace deal, but it would never be one that would be acceptable for Ukraine and Europe, and never should it be for Americans either.
The other revealing statement is Trump’s comments that Zelenskyy is gambling with WW3. If Trump believes that, then it means that Trump as well, is gambling with WW3. If the potential for WW3 is at stake, then Trump has only two choices to avoid it. One is to stand-up to Putin, tell him to stop the war and pull back to pre-2022 borders, if not pre-2014 borders. Tell Putin that he has no choice, that we will crush him and his economy if he doesn’t acquiesce. There are no two ways about it, WW3 only happens if Putin takes it there. The other choice, which Trump seems to be making, is to be weak and kowtow to Putin, giving him what he wants in a peace deal, in other words, surrender to the aggressor. Trump’s statements show us what matters to him. In Trump’s mind “I don’t care if your gamble loses and we have WW3, as long as I can blame you”. That is what the meeting was all about.
All parties can dance around for a while pursuing a peace deal, but it will never work. The question is, does Russia or Ukraine benefit most from a cease fire pause? If we think it is best for Russia, allowing them time to regroup, then we need to make this negotiation dance be a quick-step. If we decide that Ukraine can benefit most, then let’s play the game and go through a slow waltz. In either case, action needs to be taken starting now in order to get Ukraine and the EU ready for going it alone in the war.
What will ultimately need to happen is for the EU to confiscate Russia’s frozen $300M, and use some of it, $100B or $200B, to buy weapons from the US and EU factories. Trump has to agree to two things. One is to sell weapons to Ukraine and the EU, and the other is to not lift US sanctions on Russia. The reality is that Putin is in bad shape. Years of fighting and 100’s of thousands of casualties, with very little progress made. The Russian economy is in struggling with 10+% inflation and 20% interest rates. The only thing keeping full employment is the war economy (and workforce losses in war causalities). Things can’t go on like this for forever for Russia. Whether it’s 12 months or 24 months, at some point Putin’s hold on leadership is threatened. The result being that Ukraine (and Europe) win, and Putin loses. The balance of the $300B is used to help rebuild Ukraine. Ukraine can then be put on a fast track for NATO membership.
Seizing the $300B, and Trump maintaining sanctions while selling Ukraine/Europe arms, is vital for this scenario to work out. Yes, there is some risk of the precedence that seizing the money creates. I heard some express concerns that this may cause companies to be unwilling to invest assets in the west in the future, favoring China/Russia, instead. That is preposterous, are authoritarian nations really safer for investments than the west? I suppose if you’re planning to invade another country, then yeah, don’t invest in the west. For everyone else, there is nothing to worry about. Besides, Russia has a history of taking “temporary management” of foreign companies.
If it plays out this way, that looks bad for Trump. He doesn’t get his Nobel peace prize, and he is shown to have been wrong in abandoning Ukraine by pushing for a “peace” surrender deal. If Trump does not agree to these two things, then Putin wins, Trump still doesn’t get his Nobel Peace prize and will be blamed for Russia’s victory.
Trump may be holding a number of cards, but only one is a winner that gets him his coveted Nobel Peace Prize. He has sent us clear signals by what he revealed in the oval office mugging, he has already discarded the winning one. America first, means America alone, and ultimately America as the #2 world power.