What Do Nikki Haley and Tim Scott Really Want?
What Do Nikki Haley and Tim Scott Really Want?
Are the two South Carolinians “in it to win it”—or just after the veep slot?
ON SATURDAY, SOUTH DAKOTA GOV. KRISTI NOEM endorsed Donald Trump at a rally in Rapid City where Trump-Noem signs sprinkled the stands, and all the buzz is that the super-buff, telegenic 51-year-old is on the fast track to be Trump’s running mate next year.
This makes the question that has hung over the GOP primary all along even more salient: Just why are Nikki Haley and Tim Scott running for president?
While each has said some things that can be viewed as independent—Haley has called Trump “the most disliked politician in America,” while she and Scott both said Mike Pence “did the right thing” in certifying Joe Biden’s victory on January 6, 2021—it’s not at all clear that either is running to beat Trump.
Of course the South Carolina candidates are by far the most interesting in the 2024 field—to the dwindling non-MAGA faction of the GOP. They both come from humble beginnings and can tell inspiring success stories, the “proud daughter of Indian immigrants” who has served as governor and U.N. ambassador, and the only black Republican in the U.S. Senate. Haley and Scott stood on stage together endorsing Marco Rubio when he campaigned against Trump in 2016, back when a young, diverse generation of Republicans—looking “like a Benetton commercial,” Haley said at the time—seemed ready to bring integrity, capacity, and decency to save their party from a corrupt, narcissistic wannabe dictator.
That was then. This is yech.
The objectives of the other 2024 GOP candidates are pretty clear. Gov. Ron DeSantis thought he was popular enough to take Trump out. Former governors Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson are attempting to shame the GOP and dent Trump’s popularity in the electorate more broadly. Vivek Ramaswamy wants a cabinet post or other future elevation in the MAGAsphere. Former Vice President Mike Pence is rewriting his last chapter. And Gov. Doug Burgum is a smart, groovy rich dude who is really enjoying the side hustle while leading North Dakota.
But Scott and Haley? Unless they got into this to run on a ticket with Trump next year, their motives are murky or delusional.
As for now Haley has taken the lead in the Palmetto State lane. She crushed the first GOP debate and Scott blew it. She’s hauling in the dough and has packed crowds at her events while Scott is accusing opponents of leaking rumors about his status as a single man.
But Haley still has little hope of winning even the South Carolina primary, let alone the nomination. Simultaneously she has the best lead over Biden of all the GOP contenders—six points—in a national poll, while she remains almost 50 points behind Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. Her electability argument is pointless, thrilling though it feels to those lovely voters lined up at her events still believing in a party that would nominate her.
The Wall Street Journal was on the trail last week with the “thrilled” Haley, whose “phone hasn’t stopped ringing” from donor calls. Haley’s goal is to surpass DeSantis to become Trump’s top rival, and her campaign is keeping “a watchful eye on Scott,” according to the Journal.
But to “win” the Republican nomination, Haley is not campaigning against the former president—whom she calls her “friend” on the campaign trail—she is campaigning against the current vice president. Talking about the coming threat of a President Kamala Harris is Haley’s go-to. Whether it’s a question about the aging elites in both parties like Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden, or her promise to support a convicted felon, Haley’s answer turns to Harris. A vote for Biden is a vote for President Harris, Haley frequently says, making clear that heaven and earth must be moved to stop this.
To defend her pledge (hand raised at the debate) to support a convicted felon for the presidency, Haley recently said on CBS that she doesn’t think that Trump is going to be the nominee, and that anyway any Republican would be better than a “President Kamala Harris.” Haley, who sees the polls and knows Trump’s nomination is nearly inevitable, told host Robert Costa, “You are implying that the American people are not smart. The American people are not going to vote for a convicted criminal.” Referring repeatedly in the interview to “the American people,” in whom Haley declared her “faith,” she insisted that they would “vote for someone who can win a general election,” and that “they know what they need to do.”
So either Haley is pretending that the Trump supporters who will determine the GOP nomination are the “American people” who will ultimately do the right thing and reject a criminal, or she is pretending that some other American people will intervene in the GOP primary and dislodge Trump’s grip so an electable Republican can prevail. What Haley is actually doing is “implying” that her listeners are stupid.
Nikki Haley is an enormous political talent and a profound disappointment. Despite her hard work and experience and ability she can never be Republican Rescue Barbie. Her ambition has curdled her—opposing Trump, then embracing him, then rejecting him, then returning to him—and her insincerity is mind-numbing.
TIM SCOTT, MEANWHILE, seems like the nicest man in politics, but it’s not clear what he is seeking since he, too, has nearly no chance of being nominated, and his campaign thus far doesn’t seem to be elevating him—at least if an ego trip or a hosting gig on Fox is actually the goal.
The senator, appointed by Haley in 2012, won election in 2014 and re-election in 2020 and has said he is serving his last term. Running in a party that overwhelmingly favors a coup-plotting insurrectionist under multiple indictments, Scott sells himself as the Reaganesque Happy Warrior who chooses (in the words of his fundraising website) “Victory over victimhood. Patriotism over pity. Greatness over grievance. Hope over fear.”
Scott’s happy days may soon be in short supply. After his poor debate performance he is now facing questions from potential donors about his romantic life—or lack of one. Both NBC and Axios reported that Scott had revealed in interviews in May that he was dating but was keeping secret the identity of his girlfriend. On August 31, Axios reported that donors seeking to topple Trump were suddenly wanting more information from Scott about his private life and that “a senior official for Scott’s campaign told Axios the South Carolina senator will be discussing the issue in the coming weeks.”
This is beyond awkward, and clearly uncomfortable for Scott, who said recently at a campaign event:
People plant stories that have conversations to distract from our rise in the polls, to distract from our size of our audience. . . . What we’ve seen is that poll after poll says that the voters don’t care, but it seems like opponents do care, and so media coverage that opponents plant—it’s OK. Good news is we just keep fighting the good fight.
This past weekend, following up on the Axios story, Fox News’s Brian Kilmeade asked the senator about his “status” and whether or not he would soon introduce his girlfriend. Looking uncomfortable, Scott said he would “of course, at some point.”
All this raises two questions: First, which of his rivals does Scott suspect may be targeting his private life? It wouldn’t make much sense for DeSantis or Ramaswamy to do so, or those at the bottom of the polls. The only reason for the Haley campaign to leak about Scott being single would be to better position her for Trump’s ticket.
Second, Scott is willing to suffer the indignity of a focus on his bachelor status—one that he had to know was coming—but for what? He is smart enough to know that this “good fight” to win over MAGA voters and defeat Trump and become the GOP nominee will not succeed. He didn’t need a middling presidential campaign to position himself for governor someday. So his effort has to have been aimed at becoming Trump’s ticket mate.
IT WAS COMFORTING, for a while, to hope that Scott and Haley had a secret pact to ultimately oppose Trump again and fight for the party they still believe in. But if Scott loses donor dollars to Haley and learns that Trump also doubts the viability of having an unmarried man on the ticket—and is sold on Noem—it’s hard to see Scott dropping out and urging the field to coalesce around Haley as the best hope of defeating Trump.
Haley doesn’t seem to be looking for a two-person race against Trump, and neither does Scott. They are more likely working to to bolster their careers or to help Trump win a second term.
Scott and Haley may seem like the heroes the GOP needs, but they aren’t trying to save it. With all of their promise, they are going to let us down—in fact, they already are.