What We Mean When We Talk About the Origins of COVID

Also: The Taiwan dodge.

This photo taken on March 17, 2022 shows a staff member, wearing personal protective equipment (PPE), walking at the Fire Eye laboratory, a temporary Covid-19 coronavirus testing facility, before it opens in Yantai in China's eastern Shandong province. (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)

1. COVID: Origins

We’ve talked a bit about the origin of COVID here over the last few years. The basic debate is: Was COVID zoonotic (did it come from animals) or was it a man-made virus that escaped from a lab?

Depending on your priors, you can find enough evidence to “believe” either explanation. But the operative verb is believe. To think that you know with a high-degree of certainty where COVID came from requires a standard less than “beyond a reasonable doubt.”

There are two things I want you to consider about COVID’s origin:

1. It is almost impossible to imagine that we will ever know the origin to a high-degree of certainty.

2. Whether COVID jumped from animals to human or escaped from a lab, the Chinese government has massive culpability and the blood of millions on its hands.

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Here’s why we are unlikely to ever know COVID’s origins: