Such a great episode. So many great points made here.
I'd add that if the state department pulled the plug on the withdraw early it would have shown both the Taliban *and* the ANSDF the writing on the wall and whatever resistance the ANSDF put up prior to the fall of Kabul would not have even been there because they all would have taken o…
Such a great episode. So many great points made here.
I'd add that if the state department pulled the plug on the withdraw early it would have shown both the Taliban *and* the ANSDF the writing on the wall and whatever resistance the ANSDF put up prior to the fall of Kabul would not have even been there because they all would have taken off their uniforms and I wouldn't have blamed them one bit. I think it was always destined to end this way.
I'd further add that the real lesson that should be learned here for US DOD planners is that the American public's patience on winning a war is not infinite, and they should plan how they plan to conduct a war and what kind of timeline it's going to look lie before deciding to execute that war. Case in point: Panama. We did regime change there like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan but we didn't do nation-building, so that operation lasted a lot less than a regime change + nation-building mission did. Colin Powell's "Pottery Barn Rule" ("you break it, you buy it") is kind of what got us to where we were ultimately, because we broke Panama and we broke Saddam's forces in Kuwait without doing any nation-building/occupations in the aftermath. Bush the senior did 2 conflicts in 4 years versus 4 presidents doing 2 conflicts over 20 years.
And yea, with recruitment levels where they are as a direct consequence of the fallout of GWoT, we're likely going to need a draft coming back if we plan to get through any kind of near-peer conflict in the future where the American casualty rates look more like Ukraine's than what we were taking in GWoT. The worst casualty periods were in Iraq during select months from 2003-2007 where we lost a maximum of like 140ish troops KIA per month (plus x7 WIA). If we see a larger scale war like Ukraine we're not going to have enough bodies leftover to recycle to the conflict zone and we will *need* a draft to field a sustainable force in that kind of fight.
Such a great episode. So many great points made here.
I'd add that if the state department pulled the plug on the withdraw early it would have shown both the Taliban *and* the ANSDF the writing on the wall and whatever resistance the ANSDF put up prior to the fall of Kabul would not have even been there because they all would have taken off their uniforms and I wouldn't have blamed them one bit. I think it was always destined to end this way.
I'd further add that the real lesson that should be learned here for US DOD planners is that the American public's patience on winning a war is not infinite, and they should plan how they plan to conduct a war and what kind of timeline it's going to look lie before deciding to execute that war. Case in point: Panama. We did regime change there like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan but we didn't do nation-building, so that operation lasted a lot less than a regime change + nation-building mission did. Colin Powell's "Pottery Barn Rule" ("you break it, you buy it") is kind of what got us to where we were ultimately, because we broke Panama and we broke Saddam's forces in Kuwait without doing any nation-building/occupations in the aftermath. Bush the senior did 2 conflicts in 4 years versus 4 presidents doing 2 conflicts over 20 years.
And yea, with recruitment levels where they are as a direct consequence of the fallout of GWoT, we're likely going to need a draft coming back if we plan to get through any kind of near-peer conflict in the future where the American casualty rates look more like Ukraine's than what we were taking in GWoT. The worst casualty periods were in Iraq during select months from 2003-2007 where we lost a maximum of like 140ish troops KIA per month (plus x7 WIA). If we see a larger scale war like Ukraine we're not going to have enough bodies leftover to recycle to the conflict zone and we will *need* a draft to field a sustainable force in that kind of fight.