Yea that part was a terrible sidebar choice in the Kuwait conflict, but we now know what it looks like when Saddam *does* get removed (a chaotic civil war on top of a power vacuum on top of an insurgency). Turning the entire Iraqi military into unemployed men with military experience paved the way for the insurgency that raged there from…
Yea that part was a terrible sidebar choice in the Kuwait conflict, but we now know what it looks like when Saddam *does* get removed (a chaotic civil war on top of a power vacuum on top of an insurgency). Turning the entire Iraqi military into unemployed men with military experience paved the way for the insurgency that raged there from '04-'08 and the civil war that raged there from '06-'08, which was another terrible choice by guys like Paul Bremmer.
In the end, at least Iraq has a 30/100 on Freedom House's democracy index now--still a "not free" rating--which is better than flat out autocracy I suppose. But now Iran has a partner instead of a competitor in the region as well on the greater geopolitical side of things.
Really it goes all the way back to the Picot-Sykes agreement and the colonial period after WWI--especially in Israel, but places like Iraq are no exceptions.
Travis you have to explain to me how the same elites that were part of the administration that did Afghanistan and Iraq (eric and Eliot…cough cough) now talk about how we should do the same crazy thing in Iran. I feel like I’m losing my mind. How could you watch those disasters and then look at our citizens and say “you know what this complete clusterfuck of politics needs (rubs hands): let’s go into Iran. Americans will love that!!!!”
Iran would make Iraq look like a walk in the park. The terrain (mountains *and* urban sprawl), areal extent of the county (3 times the size of Iraq), unified larger populace (double the size of Iraq's pop and not divided), strategic partner in Iraq (Shia-led gov with western-supplied/trained military full of veterans), and much more advanced military capabilities would be insane to deal with. Good luck with that shit.
And what's the great prize at the end if we could even pull it off? A marginally-safer Israel via less funding for Hamas/Houthis/Hezbollah, and temporarily fewer drones in Russia's arsenal until they build out their own capacity? It'd be a win for Saudi Arabia more than anyone else, even if it didn't go completely sideways along the way.
Yea that part was a terrible sidebar choice in the Kuwait conflict, but we now know what it looks like when Saddam *does* get removed (a chaotic civil war on top of a power vacuum on top of an insurgency). Turning the entire Iraqi military into unemployed men with military experience paved the way for the insurgency that raged there from '04-'08 and the civil war that raged there from '06-'08, which was another terrible choice by guys like Paul Bremmer.
In the end, at least Iraq has a 30/100 on Freedom House's democracy index now--still a "not free" rating--which is better than flat out autocracy I suppose. But now Iran has a partner instead of a competitor in the region as well on the greater geopolitical side of things.
Exactly. The state of affairs in the Middle East is a direct consequence of the destabilization caused by our invasion of Iraq.
Really it goes all the way back to the Picot-Sykes agreement and the colonial period after WWI--especially in Israel, but places like Iraq are no exceptions.
Yup.
This….this times 10.
Travis you have to explain to me how the same elites that were part of the administration that did Afghanistan and Iraq (eric and Eliot…cough cough) now talk about how we should do the same crazy thing in Iran. I feel like I’m losing my mind. How could you watch those disasters and then look at our citizens and say “you know what this complete clusterfuck of politics needs (rubs hands): let’s go into Iran. Americans will love that!!!!”
Iran would make Iraq look like a walk in the park. The terrain (mountains *and* urban sprawl), areal extent of the county (3 times the size of Iraq), unified larger populace (double the size of Iraq's pop and not divided), strategic partner in Iraq (Shia-led gov with western-supplied/trained military full of veterans), and much more advanced military capabilities would be insane to deal with. Good luck with that shit.
And what's the great prize at the end if we could even pull it off? A marginally-safer Israel via less funding for Hamas/Houthis/Hezbollah, and temporarily fewer drones in Russia's arsenal until they build out their own capacity? It'd be a win for Saudi Arabia more than anyone else, even if it didn't go completely sideways along the way.
Oh it would go sideways and stay sideways for a very long time.