1. Cuba No Libre
Today a Russian oil tanker docked in Cuba. It was the first oil delivery to the island since January 9. The worst-kept secret in the world is that the Trump administration is working to topple the Cuban government.
The administration has been playing a very long game with Cuba. The entire Venezuelan project—the obsession with Tren de Aragua, the lawless attacks on boats off the Venezuelan coast, the abduction of Nicolás Maduro—only really makes sense when viewed as the first half of a plan to liberate Cuba.
And right now, Cuba is in trouble. The American sanctions have crippled the country’s economy. The Communist regime is struggling to survive, but the walls are closing in.
Maybe the regime in Cuba falls on its own; maybe Trump gives it a push. Either way, this is Trump’s next foreign project. So let’s take a minute and get smart about what’s happening in Cuba and what regime change there will mean for America in the coming weeks or months.
Warning: This stuff isn’t sexy. There won’t be a lot of ‘splosions and Maximum Lethality. It’s a story about economics and authoritarianism. Most of all, it’s a story about oil.
And it’s complicated, too. The good guys aren’t all good and the bad guys aren’t all bad.
Let’s go.