Well, General, I hope you're right about adaptive strategies, but it seems just as likely that this is more of the administration's incoherence mixed with a little bit of market manipulation - because, guess what? It's the weekend and time to get ready for the next week of trading!
I am inclined to agree with you Garvin. It is difficult to believe that those in charge of the 'strategy' in this operation have become aware of their failed plan. It is assuming a great deal that there was ever a truly coherent plan to begin with.
I would love to think there are strategic and tactical plans behind all of it, however, assuming there is a strategy other than his ego driven whims seems a bit hopeful to me.
The most frightening line of your article, General is …the President isn’t obligated to listen to Joint Chiefs or anyone else and can do whatever he wants. Here in lies the problem when a petulant child solely controls the world’s most powerful cudgel, the USA armed forces. His actions are not based upon prior military experience like George HWB (floating in the Pacific after being shot down in combat), or reading past military thinkers on actions and strategies but are driven by personal self enrichment and aggrandizement. My hope is that his party can be voted out of office so the political tide will change this misdirected course.
The latest episode of Shield of the Republic has an excellent guest (apologies for not remembering their name) who describes Trump as "not a-strategic, but anti-strategic" which sounds dead on when considering Trump who strikes me as almost pathologically oppositional at times, motivated as much by spite as anything else.
Knowing what I know about Trump, if the possible explanations for a cease in bombing are "there is a realization that continued bombing is not achieving strategic objectives" and "we are out of bombs", I'm fairly confident the correct explanation is the latter.
We have an administration that does not tell the truth, even under oath. Oil was creeping back up to $100/bbl. and it was time for another market manipulation. The author assumes that just because the esoterica of sound military strategies is well known among professionals, we are dealing with ignorance, hubris and sycophancy in our government.
The goal is a fascist police state, so any military strategy has to be viewed through a cloud of obfuscation to solidify that end. Congress has no idea what our stockpiles are, what deals are in the works or even that accurate status of our military capabilities. It is supposed to, but bypassing Congress is the goal for the unitary executive.
He had no idea of what to do in the first place. Instead of asking the joint chiefs, he asked High-T Pete Hegseth, hired because Trump was favoring Fox News for appointments. Two lessons, actually 3 were ignored. American troops spent 20 year, lives, and treasure trying to take Afghanistan from the Taliban. Netanyahu is still trying to eliminate Hamas; he learned nothing from Afghanistan. Vietnam had a huge cost, the greatest 50,000 lives, and we accomplished nothing. Those who ignore the history of the past are doomed to repeat it. I still have doubts about whether Trump can accept defeat. Maybe he will find a way to spin it.
He stopped like he does every Sunday to manipulate the markets. He even says so in his speeches "look at the stock market." And it's playing out again, right now, a we watch those in the know who are playing the market make their billions while the rest of us sit on the sidelines and wonder how he can get away with this strategy at least 60 times since the war started.
The bigger question is how did we get to a place in this country whereby our president can manipulate the market to benefit his friends...and it's seemingly legal to do so?
My husband and i are just now retiring and our money is worth about half of what it was before this administration, My husband is a famous wine expert (Tim Hanni, MW) and I was a successful consumer advocate for airline passengers as well as a successful real estate broker for years and I've never seen anything so dumbfounding in my life. How can he continue announcing on Friday we have no deal and increasing bombing only to stop the bombing Sunday and announce we may have a deal?
A bevy of cynical responses as to the reasons for Trump's cessation of aggressive military action against Iran. Trump feels politically imperiled by the prospect of rising oil prices and shock at the pump ,so, he resumes his totally obvious manipulation of the stock market. A reasonable conclusion based on previous Trump machinations. However, could it possible that this decision is (by military advisors with balls ) the result of an inventory of this country's remaining stock pile of ordinance has led to the sobering conclusion that our ability to aid our( remaining) allies militarily has been compromised, but more importantly, there are serious questions as to America's ability to defend itself. Such a revelation would have a more substantial and profound impact on the Dow-Jones than Trump's pathetic market maneuvers.
And if you didn’t catch the nuance to the article - which I expanded upon when talking about what the Joint Staff does - is that I believe those who have been advising the president have finally gotten through to him (and others in his cabinet) about the dangers of this situation.
General, why did you even write this piece? We all know why trump and his minions stop a bombing campaign, it's to manipulate the markets. I think your time would have been better spend doing something else, anything else. Why they do what they do? The so called "Commander in Chief" uses war to manipulate the market so he and his buddies make billions on the backs of our military. The DoD is run by a drunk, incompetent, white christian nationalist peacock who purged all the generals and admirals who knew what they were doing. I think the DoD is just playing it by ear because Kegsbreath thinks war is Call To Duty played on the Novice setting.
Every article you have written shows your ability to assess situations. You provided different possible courses of action, but can’t say which would be chosen. I read If I Don’t Return. Your reflections showed that you know and applied every characteristic of a leader. Each journal entry led to thoughts and actions about how to assess a situation and lead. I can only wish that we will elect people with character and leadership skills.
The war reflects the failure of the meta strategy of bullying whomever one can rather than collaborating with allies. Iran is openly breaking international law and harming the global economy and no one is rushing to join the battle on America's side; even countries who've been directly attacked. Some allies are even restricting basing right. By contrast, China and Russia seems increasingly open about providing high-value aid to Iran.
There's no military solution (short of insane genocidal acts) to preventing Iran controlling the Strait and having a nuclear program. The military conditions are too asymmetrically in Iran's favor. Those outcomes were prevented in the past via 1) a global coalition to deter Iran, including via Iran's allies, and 2) presenting Iran with some credible upside for complying. There's no alternative to going back to that, however disagreeable one finds it.
That’s why Oman has a negotiating team in Teheran right now discussing with the Iranians how they can jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz per Paragraph 5 of the MOU. The bombing has stopped for two reasons: (1) Caine told Trump we’re almost out of weapons, and (2) give Oman some protection while they try to negotiate a deal with Iran.
We’re never going back to unfettered passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If we’re lucky(ish) we’ll get the MOU back in place and stop fighting. The surrender deal will be enforced and the world will never be the same. Trump’s legacy.
I appreciate this article and its thoughtfulness ,but I have a hard time believing that there is any kind of real plan. I hope you are right, but then who will be the diplomats be - Jared and friends? It’s all just so ridiculous and embarrassing.
Well, General, I hope you're right about adaptive strategies, but it seems just as likely that this is more of the administration's incoherence mixed with a little bit of market manipulation - because, guess what? It's the weekend and time to get ready for the next week of trading!
I am inclined to agree with you Garvin. It is difficult to believe that those in charge of the 'strategy' in this operation have become aware of their failed plan. It is assuming a great deal that there was ever a truly coherent plan to begin with.
I would love to think there are strategic and tactical plans behind all of it, however, assuming there is a strategy other than his ego driven whims seems a bit hopeful to me.
The most frightening line of your article, General is …the President isn’t obligated to listen to Joint Chiefs or anyone else and can do whatever he wants. Here in lies the problem when a petulant child solely controls the world’s most powerful cudgel, the USA armed forces. His actions are not based upon prior military experience like George HWB (floating in the Pacific after being shot down in combat), or reading past military thinkers on actions and strategies but are driven by personal self enrichment and aggrandizement. My hope is that his party can be voted out of office so the political tide will change this misdirected course.
The latest episode of Shield of the Republic has an excellent guest (apologies for not remembering their name) who describes Trump as "not a-strategic, but anti-strategic" which sounds dead on when considering Trump who strikes me as almost pathologically oppositional at times, motivated as much by spite as anything else.
I watched it yesterday.
Knowing what I know about Trump, if the possible explanations for a cease in bombing are "there is a realization that continued bombing is not achieving strategic objectives" and "we are out of bombs", I'm fairly confident the correct explanation is the latter.
There's a third option, "It's the weekend, time to manipulate the markets again". That I believe is the correct answer.
Possible but he still hasn’t restarted. Monday afternoon now.
Unfortunately Trump is making the Iranians the good guys with his moronic behaviour.
We have an administration that does not tell the truth, even under oath. Oil was creeping back up to $100/bbl. and it was time for another market manipulation. The author assumes that just because the esoterica of sound military strategies is well known among professionals, we are dealing with ignorance, hubris and sycophancy in our government.
The goal is a fascist police state, so any military strategy has to be viewed through a cloud of obfuscation to solidify that end. Congress has no idea what our stockpiles are, what deals are in the works or even that accurate status of our military capabilities. It is supposed to, but bypassing Congress is the goal for the unitary executive.
Absolutely spot on!
So, what you are saying is he has absolutely no idea what to do next.
He had no idea of what to do in the first place. Instead of asking the joint chiefs, he asked High-T Pete Hegseth, hired because Trump was favoring Fox News for appointments. Two lessons, actually 3 were ignored. American troops spent 20 year, lives, and treasure trying to take Afghanistan from the Taliban. Netanyahu is still trying to eliminate Hamas; he learned nothing from Afghanistan. Vietnam had a huge cost, the greatest 50,000 lives, and we accomplished nothing. Those who ignore the history of the past are doomed to repeat it. I still have doubts about whether Trump can accept defeat. Maybe he will find a way to spin it.
I agree, he can’t admit defeat. ESPECIALLY to Iran.
$12 drop in oil stocks ... im pretty sure we know why the pause happened.
He stopped like he does every Sunday to manipulate the markets. He even says so in his speeches "look at the stock market." And it's playing out again, right now, a we watch those in the know who are playing the market make their billions while the rest of us sit on the sidelines and wonder how he can get away with this strategy at least 60 times since the war started.
The bigger question is how did we get to a place in this country whereby our president can manipulate the market to benefit his friends...and it's seemingly legal to do so?
My husband and i are just now retiring and our money is worth about half of what it was before this administration, My husband is a famous wine expert (Tim Hanni, MW) and I was a successful consumer advocate for airline passengers as well as a successful real estate broker for years and I've never seen anything so dumbfounding in my life. How can he continue announcing on Friday we have no deal and increasing bombing only to stop the bombing Sunday and announce we may have a deal?
I learned from reading this article. Thanks!
All we need to ever look at to determine the causality in any of Trumps moves is this: WHO BENEFITS.
Excellent info sir! Feels so reassuring to have an outstanding military mind walking us through this mess from a strategic perspective. Ty
A bevy of cynical responses as to the reasons for Trump's cessation of aggressive military action against Iran. Trump feels politically imperiled by the prospect of rising oil prices and shock at the pump ,so, he resumes his totally obvious manipulation of the stock market. A reasonable conclusion based on previous Trump machinations. However, could it possible that this decision is (by military advisors with balls ) the result of an inventory of this country's remaining stock pile of ordinance has led to the sobering conclusion that our ability to aid our( remaining) allies militarily has been compromised, but more importantly, there are serious questions as to America's ability to defend itself. Such a revelation would have a more substantial and profound impact on the Dow-Jones than Trump's pathetic market maneuvers.
And if you didn’t catch the nuance to the article - which I expanded upon when talking about what the Joint Staff does - is that I believe those who have been advising the president have finally gotten through to him (and others in his cabinet) about the dangers of this situation.
I provide analysis, and have drawn my own conclusions (which I didn’t put in the article).
Sorry you don’t like the piece. I was trying to outline the potential opportunities, but I didn’t say any of them would be the course of action.
General, why did you even write this piece? We all know why trump and his minions stop a bombing campaign, it's to manipulate the markets. I think your time would have been better spend doing something else, anything else. Why they do what they do? The so called "Commander in Chief" uses war to manipulate the market so he and his buddies make billions on the backs of our military. The DoD is run by a drunk, incompetent, white christian nationalist peacock who purged all the generals and admirals who knew what they were doing. I think the DoD is just playing it by ear because Kegsbreath thinks war is Call To Duty played on the Novice setting.
I wrote the piece to outline, for those interested, the potential for action during a pause, not what I think will happen.
Every article you have written shows your ability to assess situations. You provided different possible courses of action, but can’t say which would be chosen. I read If I Don’t Return. Your reflections showed that you know and applied every characteristic of a leader. Each journal entry led to thoughts and actions about how to assess a situation and lead. I can only wish that we will elect people with character and leadership skills.
The war reflects the failure of the meta strategy of bullying whomever one can rather than collaborating with allies. Iran is openly breaking international law and harming the global economy and no one is rushing to join the battle on America's side; even countries who've been directly attacked. Some allies are even restricting basing right. By contrast, China and Russia seems increasingly open about providing high-value aid to Iran.
There's no military solution (short of insane genocidal acts) to preventing Iran controlling the Strait and having a nuclear program. The military conditions are too asymmetrically in Iran's favor. Those outcomes were prevented in the past via 1) a global coalition to deter Iran, including via Iran's allies, and 2) presenting Iran with some credible upside for complying. There's no alternative to going back to that, however disagreeable one finds it.
That’s why Oman has a negotiating team in Teheran right now discussing with the Iranians how they can jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz per Paragraph 5 of the MOU. The bombing has stopped for two reasons: (1) Caine told Trump we’re almost out of weapons, and (2) give Oman some protection while they try to negotiate a deal with Iran.
We’re never going back to unfettered passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If we’re lucky(ish) we’ll get the MOU back in place and stop fighting. The surrender deal will be enforced and the world will never be the same. Trump’s legacy.
Trump doesn’t know what “allies” are. He’s alienated all of with tariffs and worse. He doesn’t do allies.
I appreciate this article and its thoughtfulness ,but I have a hard time believing that there is any kind of real plan. I hope you are right, but then who will be the diplomats be - Jared and friends? It’s all just so ridiculous and embarrassing.