I do agree that the Dems need to be about something, but what? Part of the problem is that everything is fragmented. There is no unifying objective or standard that we can apply to show voters why what we are saying works and what the MAGA is doing doesn't. Let me suggest something that will set the MAGA's off and set them up. The new generation of Democrats should say that "Everyone is dependent on government." This will bring immediate criticism from the far right. President Obama said that once and was pilloried for it. Reality is that we are dependent on government. You can see this by asking, if this isn't true, then what is the purpose of government? You will get answers from freedom to voting, to military protection, etc. Those are all necessary but not sufficient. The correct answer is that the purpose of government is to create and maintain a level playing field. You want everyone living in this country to be able to become through their own efforts the best person they can be. It is not a function of birth, wealth, religion, race or gender (there may be other items you want to add).
Having said that, what does the MAGA Big Beautiful Bill do when put up against this standard. Is the playing field level when you take away health facilities from rural Americans? If the President uses the Justice Department to go after his enemies, is that fair to us who need the FBI looking to protect us? One of the jobs of the Department of Education is to make sure all the states can provide the same basic level of education. If less affluent states need grants to assist in achieving that, then the government should do it. The SEC tries to keep rotten apples out, but occasionally a Bernie Madoff gets in, then the Justice Dept investigates, Congress determines if new legislation is needed and the courts determine guilt or innocence. That's a few examples of how government maintains a level playing field and should work for all Americans.
Dems need to state their policies in terms of how it maintains the level playing field. E.g.
Immigration laws regarding controlled immigration should be defined in terms of the level playing field. They usually are working jobs that Americans don't want. Also, how many of these immigrants can communicate adequately in English. That's a great job threat. Also deporting 15 million immigrants means that you are alienating all their citizen relatives (especially those in the military). Reminder, we were against the immigration of: Chinese, Irish, Italians, etc. Even the idea of deporting criminals shouldn't be done without due process. Our immigration laws are the result of lessons learned. We need to remember who we are NOT and grabbing people off the street and shipping them to a foreign prison or when they appear for their hearing per the law, we double cross them and then deport them. These are not the actions of people interested in a level playing field.
And since DJT has definitely violated his Constitutional Oath, the Founding Fathers provided another check to his powers. DJT's oath of office gave him the power to protect and defend against enemies of the Constitution, foreign and domestic. The Oath is in the Constitution and the Courts interpret the Constitution. So a lower court could rule that DJT is a domestic enemy of the Constitution (and list all the flagrant violations). This would require ALL Constitutional Officers to disregard everything from DJT base on their own oaths. Failure to do so puts them in the same boat. This effectively means DJT has no power to do or execute anything a President is authorized to do.
First off, Ds need to heed Sarah Longwell and go after this Epstein thing hard. Call for hearings in both house and senate for Bondi, Patel and Borgino to testify under oath and have the Rs explain to the MAGAverse and the rest of us why it's not a good idea. This is not about muckraking (although that part of it would be fun) it's about these government officials consistently lying.
Ds should also be introducing legislation weekly that claws back parts of the reconciliation bill. That would involve taking $$ from DOD (which has not passed an audit since ???) and Homeland and returning it to the social safety net. Each bill should cover a specific topic (e.g., additional funding for rural hospitals, increased SNAP, etc.). These bills will go nowhere, but it at least makes the Rs respond to specifics AND would get Ds off the generic "this bill sucks" mantra. What am I missing here?
Dems deserve to be beat up on a regular basis until they no longer are subject to the corporate siren call. When Dems hate Bernie, AOC, Mamdani how can you say they listen to the people or are for the people? Slogans matter. KISS. Stick to the indisputable facts. Great Big Beautiful Bills don’t need to raise the debt ceiling because they should lower the deficit and debt. Duh! Pound that in! Then start on another indisputable fact. Get that damn hammer out and start doing the work.
The fear of voters losing their health care when the Republicans tried to repeal the ACA in 2018 was one of two main reasons Republicans performed poorly in the 2018 midterms. The other being Trump’s personality. And the ACA repeal never even made it through Congress. This monstrosity has.
What Democrats were arguing for was letting the 2017 tax cuts on affluent taxpayers expire instead of massively slashing Medicaid and federal food assistance to lower and sometimes middle income individuals and families to finance their extension.
This abomination that Trump and Republicans rammed through Congress last week is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode that will cause sheer devastation to the American people when it does, especially Trump’s own voters.
The extreme and unconscionable cuts to Medicaid contained in it could not be any more real. Around 16 million Americans will lose their heath care, if one factors in that the ACA exchanges will not be enrolling anyone new.
And rural America will be hit the hardest. That’s why conservative Republican North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis was so critical of it and voted against it.
And a mishandled natural disaster by this regime and/or a national security and/or economic crisis caused and/or exacerbated by it would also likely influence the 2026 and/or 2028 elections.
Not to mention the ICE Gestapo dummkopfs terrorizing local communities around the nation. And the concentration camps about to be constructed, and then administered by the ICE dunderheads.
Another day, another example of the asymmetry in American politics. Dems have to worry about their "alternative to the BBB"? Why? Republicans have ridden loud complaints about Dems to win after win for decades. Nobody told the Rs they needed a compelling alternative to Obamacare. And, for the record, they still don't have one. But bitching about it lead to a landslide in the House in 2010. "This bill will close rural hospital and take healthcare away from your friends and neighbors to give Elon Musk and other billionaires a tax cut." LATHER...RINSE...REPEAT.
Can the answer just be we do it ALL. So much I see is always doom and gloom and even as the Republicans display their gross incompetence and cruelty Democrats and those alike keep saying oh, the brand is so bad...what the hell is the Republican brand. Please can we offer up solutions instead of just dragging the party down at every opportunity. This is not how you build a winning team. Yes, we may suck but Republicans suck more! Is it that hard to tell what the vision is while also showing where the monsters live? 😈 Republicans are monsters! Just cruel awful monsters!
I'm starting to wonder if the Democratic party is obsolete. They can't ever seem to get out of their own way, over the last 15 to 20 years. Now they've reached their true nadir, with Trump 2.0. Do they realize the desperate fix they're in? They continue to have no answers, no real leadership. They just waffle around worried in midair, flapping wings but getting nowhere. While the colossus they're up against only continues to solidify and strengthen. They have been out maneuvered and out smarted time and time again both lately and for years.
I realize there's never been a path for third parties, but I also cannot see lasting and credible path to victory for this Democrat Lost Boys party. Lost Boys. Where do we see a clear way forward, against the colossus? We have to understand what we're up against. It really is The Colossus, that must be defeated.
I hate to be that guy, but give the economy a little more runway to start tanking due to the inflationary pressure of tariffs and rotting crops. Do I want the economy to suffer? No. But it's headed that way and the Dems will rightly pounce.
The Democratic leadership is so lacking in vision and, well, leadership capacity. Shumer andJeffries need to step aside and let younger, more dynamic leadership take over.
I never really did understand why Democrats think this bill will have a lasting negative impact on Trump and the GOP - unless it's just more whistling through the graveyard on their parts?
1. The tax rebates for seniors will be a huge hit, even with Democrat seniors. Seniors who qualify for the entire credit (which is most seniors) can see a $2-4,000 tax break. That's real money, and it could wipe out a huge chunk of their federal tax obligation.
2. Tipped wage workers across the country, but especially in NV, will see a big tax deduction that will also be popular, including with people who usually vote for Democrats.
3. The No-Tax-on-OT will also be popular with working class voters, especially if the GOP campaigns on this correctly next tax season.
4. All these things start immediately. Also, nobody got a tax rate cut in this bill. The bill simply extends CURRENT tax rates. What Democrats were arguing for was letting the 2017 rates expire and increasing tax rates for every American. Do they truly understand how unpopular that position can be made to seem?
5. The raising of the SALT tax limit will also be very popular, especially in the suburbs. $40,000 should cover everybody who owns a normal home - everywhere. The millionaires who pay more than that are either Coastals who already vote for Democrats, or are GOP voters who vote for the GOP for tax-cut reasons.
6. None of the bad stuff goes into effect until 2026, and the negative impact of it won't be felt until at least 2027 or 2028. It will take that long for the "rural hospitals to start to close". By then, there will be some other shiny new object to distract voters, or the rise of some new culture war issue on which most people agree with the GOP.
7. The healthcare coverage losses are still theoretical. Nobody is directly being thrown off their healthcare, and virtually no benefits are being directly cut. The loss of coverage estimates assume that people will lose coverage because they won't meet the work requirements or will get buried in the paperwork. These will be individual, somewhat one-off cases, not masses of people going from covered to not-covered overnight. That is going to be hard to generate much sustained emotion over. Plus, nobody with employer-provided HC will see any impact from the Medicaid cuts.
8. Dobbs was the biggest policy upheaval/risk since Obamacare,...and it fell flat on its face as an electoral issue. Flat. On. Its. Face. We may actually be too polarized as an electorate for ANY policy position to make much of a difference to 90%+ of voters.
For all these reasons and more, I think the 2026 midterms will hinge on two things, and two things only: Will MAGA turnout without Trump on the ballot? How personally unpopular/hated will Trump be by November 2026? I'm not sure this bill will make much difference on either of those two questions.
Lots of things poll terribly, especially in the beginning. Trump polls terribly, but he also got elected president - twice. Obamacare polled terribly when it first passed, now it’s somewhat popular. Dems did a good job demonizing this bill, but if their dire predictions don’t pan out in a real obvious way, there could be a backlash, and they could be accused of crying wolf.
The truth is that this bill has more populist tax policy in it than any tax cut bill passed in the last 50 years. Or at least it can credibly be cast that way by proper marketing. And, as I said above, all the Medicaid cuts (people losing HC) are theoretical. Maybe people won’t have as much trouble with the paperwork? Majorities of voters do support the work requirements, at least in principle.
The SNAP cuts are more problematic, but Trump’s SNAP voters are a cult. They’ll stay with him even if he “snaps” their heads off, and the GOP doesn’t really need, or give a shit, about the Democrat SNAP recipients.
My guess is this will be much more popular than Paul Ryan’s corporate tax cut bill from 2017, though I concede, that’s a pretty low bar.
I fear that you could be right regarding whether a meaningful number of Trump’s voters will turn on him in the near future. But at some point in the not so distant future, this “experiment in autocracy” in the United States is going to result in sheer devastation for the American people. Mark my words.
Maybe in the way of a massive terrorist attack from a foreign adversary or domestic extremist group. Or one of our naval vessels being sunk in the South China Sea. Or a pubic heath crisis worse than COVID. Or a compete collapse of the U.S. economy.
I wonder how many of Trump’s 2024 voters will still stick him after this inevitability occurs. And I apologize for being a “profit of doom” and Jeremiah here.
Your analyses are always well reasoned, even though I sometimes disagree with them substantively.
The fact that 16 million Americans very well could lose their Medicaid due to onerous paperwork requirements, and that hospitals in rural areas and nursing homes will shut down due to extreme spending cuts to providers may be enough to turn a chunk of 2024 Trump supporters against Republicans in 2026.
Even if some of them can’t bring themselves to vote for Democrats, at least maybe some will stay home in 2026.
What percentage of the U.S. do you still think would still support Trump if he “stood in the middle of 5th Avenue and shot someone?” I would conjecture about 40%.
And what percentage of the U.S. do you believe are “soft” MAGA voters?” I would surmise around 5%.
“…very well could”, not definitely will. Big difference, especially when you consider the typical effectiveness of Dem messaging.
As for Trump losing support? Remember, the vast majority of his voters don’t vote on policy. They vote on emotion. Emotion by definition is not rational. The rest are strategic and transactional, and fear Democrat policies. And they all hate “woke”, illegals and “DEI”. That isn’t going to change because someone “might” lose their Medicaid.
All that said, maybe you’re right? In a sane world you probably would be. We keep predicting his downfall, and Trump keeps winning, and we all end up looking like horse’s asses.
couldn't you say that running in 2026 on "they're about to take your medicare away vote for me and I can stop it" is just as effective as "they already took your medicare away in 2025 oh shucks"
You’re assuming people would believe you. The same voters who fear and dislike Democrats because of culture war issues? Something tells me they will choose not to believe.
I cast my last vote for a GOP candidate in the 1996 election so 29 years ago.
Democrats have too many activists for too many causes. While most, if not all, of those causes are good, they cause a problem. They water down peoples focus. I'm retired, have plenty of free time but there is no way I can keep up with all the causes that flood my inbox everyday begging for money.
So you know what happens to all those emails? Delete, delete, delete.
This is something that the GOP has long recognized, both for GOP candidates, and when attacking opposition Democrats. They don't bog down "their" voters with quantity. There are roughly three things you can count on with GOP candidates. God, guns, and immigration.
Democratic Party candidates try and put everything out in front of their voters. If there are fifty causes available, they put all fifty out there and that is a mistake. Fifty causes is glassy eye territory. On top of that, it provides the GOP with countless opportunities to disparage those causes.
DEI is a perfect example. The cause is just but on net I think DEI disparagement benefited the GOP more than the implementation of DEI type policies benefited the Democratic Party.
Ask yourself if DEI disparagement garnered more apathetic voters to swing to Trump or if naming ships after historic but under-recognized historical figures swung apathetic voters to Democrats.
Pick two or three issues that resonate with voters and focus on those. The average voter is for the most part apathetic to most everything outside their small world. Democratic Party strategists need to acknowledge that and focus accordingly. I am tired of mentally using the old cliche "Like herding cats" to describe the Democratic Party. Stop asking apathetic Democratic Party voters to be political junkies.
Unitary Executive, anyone? The Demopublicans still have not gotten the message that the game they are trying to play is not the game the Republicrats are playing and winning. Most of the worst effects of the BBB will play out over a time span far longer than the attention span of the notoriously fickle American electorate. By the time the mid-term elections are held Project 2025 and state gerrymandering will pretty much determine the outcome in my opinion. It is entirely possible that the Demopublicans will have to face President Vance as successor in interest to T. Rump whether by impeachment or displacement (give the old boy a gold watch and have him fade into the sunset at Mar a Lago - tell him the White House moved south...whatever).
“It’s not as black-and-white as I think some in D.C. feel like it’s going to be.”
Well, THERE'S your problem! People in DC are fools, always preparing for the last war. That's how we got Trump. And got Trump again. While the DNC is casting around for a quick sure-thing fix that will never appear, people are getting more and more pissed off. Oh, I know! How about a 'strongly-worded letter'!
That bill is chock full of goodies that Dems could pick up and use. But those goodies are mere tools, and that crowbar is not going to pick itself up. How about tying the bill to something that's not directly in it? Nobody will know. Nobody has read it. Dead kids in Texas from flood and disease. Showcase stories of grandma dying of stress because her Medicaid is cutting off. Or the hardship on her family who has to take her in. Or women dying because a doctor will not abort a dead fetus. No one will question that all those things are on the GOP, the DNC is just too chickenshit to start swinging the meataxe. Which is what it's going to take.
It feels like many elected democrats and their strategists keep waiting for someone else to take the GOP out for them. They gnashed their teeth over multiple MAGA lay ups because they weren't "kitchen table issues", they were "distractions". And now we have some of those fabled "kitchen table issues" and they start trying to lower expectations.
Agreed. Sort of like how Murkowski wanted the House to do the dirty work of killing The Bill, so she didn't sully her delicate little hands and raise the ire of her fascist colleagues. She wanted to do right by her beloved state? Right now, I'd like to see Alaska fucked 20 ways to Sunday.
I'm betting someone is going to emerge who goes after the GOP in a relentless and vicious manner, as is justified. The DNC will be AMAZED at the groundswell of popular support they will get. They learned nothing from either No Kings or Hands Off. They've learned nothing from either Mamdani or Hogg. They can't learn. They're dead from the neck up.
Yup. Mamdani wins handily and I see a bunch of headlines on how Dems are trying to figure out how to keep him from winning. I don't love the guy, but when Republicans were trying to cram there BBB through I saw more headlines about how Dems were trying to figure out how to stop Mamdani from winning the primary or the general than about the bill.
I do agree that the Dems need to be about something, but what? Part of the problem is that everything is fragmented. There is no unifying objective or standard that we can apply to show voters why what we are saying works and what the MAGA is doing doesn't. Let me suggest something that will set the MAGA's off and set them up. The new generation of Democrats should say that "Everyone is dependent on government." This will bring immediate criticism from the far right. President Obama said that once and was pilloried for it. Reality is that we are dependent on government. You can see this by asking, if this isn't true, then what is the purpose of government? You will get answers from freedom to voting, to military protection, etc. Those are all necessary but not sufficient. The correct answer is that the purpose of government is to create and maintain a level playing field. You want everyone living in this country to be able to become through their own efforts the best person they can be. It is not a function of birth, wealth, religion, race or gender (there may be other items you want to add).
Having said that, what does the MAGA Big Beautiful Bill do when put up against this standard. Is the playing field level when you take away health facilities from rural Americans? If the President uses the Justice Department to go after his enemies, is that fair to us who need the FBI looking to protect us? One of the jobs of the Department of Education is to make sure all the states can provide the same basic level of education. If less affluent states need grants to assist in achieving that, then the government should do it. The SEC tries to keep rotten apples out, but occasionally a Bernie Madoff gets in, then the Justice Dept investigates, Congress determines if new legislation is needed and the courts determine guilt or innocence. That's a few examples of how government maintains a level playing field and should work for all Americans.
Dems need to state their policies in terms of how it maintains the level playing field. E.g.
Immigration laws regarding controlled immigration should be defined in terms of the level playing field. They usually are working jobs that Americans don't want. Also, how many of these immigrants can communicate adequately in English. That's a great job threat. Also deporting 15 million immigrants means that you are alienating all their citizen relatives (especially those in the military). Reminder, we were against the immigration of: Chinese, Irish, Italians, etc. Even the idea of deporting criminals shouldn't be done without due process. Our immigration laws are the result of lessons learned. We need to remember who we are NOT and grabbing people off the street and shipping them to a foreign prison or when they appear for their hearing per the law, we double cross them and then deport them. These are not the actions of people interested in a level playing field.
And since DJT has definitely violated his Constitutional Oath, the Founding Fathers provided another check to his powers. DJT's oath of office gave him the power to protect and defend against enemies of the Constitution, foreign and domestic. The Oath is in the Constitution and the Courts interpret the Constitution. So a lower court could rule that DJT is a domestic enemy of the Constitution (and list all the flagrant violations). This would require ALL Constitutional Officers to disregard everything from DJT base on their own oaths. Failure to do so puts them in the same boat. This effectively means DJT has no power to do or execute anything a President is authorized to do.
First off, Ds need to heed Sarah Longwell and go after this Epstein thing hard. Call for hearings in both house and senate for Bondi, Patel and Borgino to testify under oath and have the Rs explain to the MAGAverse and the rest of us why it's not a good idea. This is not about muckraking (although that part of it would be fun) it's about these government officials consistently lying.
Ds should also be introducing legislation weekly that claws back parts of the reconciliation bill. That would involve taking $$ from DOD (which has not passed an audit since ???) and Homeland and returning it to the social safety net. Each bill should cover a specific topic (e.g., additional funding for rural hospitals, increased SNAP, etc.). These bills will go nowhere, but it at least makes the Rs respond to specifics AND would get Ds off the generic "this bill sucks" mantra. What am I missing here?
Dems deserve to be beat up on a regular basis until they no longer are subject to the corporate siren call. When Dems hate Bernie, AOC, Mamdani how can you say they listen to the people or are for the people? Slogans matter. KISS. Stick to the indisputable facts. Great Big Beautiful Bills don’t need to raise the debt ceiling because they should lower the deficit and debt. Duh! Pound that in! Then start on another indisputable fact. Get that damn hammer out and start doing the work.
The fear of voters losing their health care when the Republicans tried to repeal the ACA in 2018 was one of two main reasons Republicans performed poorly in the 2018 midterms. The other being Trump’s personality. And the ACA repeal never even made it through Congress. This monstrosity has.
What Democrats were arguing for was letting the 2017 tax cuts on affluent taxpayers expire instead of massively slashing Medicaid and federal food assistance to lower and sometimes middle income individuals and families to finance their extension.
This abomination that Trump and Republicans rammed through Congress last week is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode that will cause sheer devastation to the American people when it does, especially Trump’s own voters.
The extreme and unconscionable cuts to Medicaid contained in it could not be any more real. Around 16 million Americans will lose their heath care, if one factors in that the ACA exchanges will not be enrolling anyone new.
And rural America will be hit the hardest. That’s why conservative Republican North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis was so critical of it and voted against it.
And a mishandled natural disaster by this regime and/or a national security and/or economic crisis caused and/or exacerbated by it would also likely influence the 2026 and/or 2028 elections.
Not to mention the ICE Gestapo dummkopfs terrorizing local communities around the nation. And the concentration camps about to be constructed, and then administered by the ICE dunderheads.
Good comment though. Your points are good.
Agree! Instead of pointing out the obvious Dems ignore it. The BBB has inside it a hidden agenda - the stepwise dismantling of Obamacare.
Another day, another example of the asymmetry in American politics. Dems have to worry about their "alternative to the BBB"? Why? Republicans have ridden loud complaints about Dems to win after win for decades. Nobody told the Rs they needed a compelling alternative to Obamacare. And, for the record, they still don't have one. But bitching about it lead to a landslide in the House in 2010. "This bill will close rural hospital and take healthcare away from your friends and neighbors to give Elon Musk and other billionaires a tax cut." LATHER...RINSE...REPEAT.
What a lazy, inane take. Reads like something I'd see in Politico, NYT, or some other useless rag - not at all what I expect of Bulwark
Show fight? Don’t make me laugh. Name two!
Can the answer just be we do it ALL. So much I see is always doom and gloom and even as the Republicans display their gross incompetence and cruelty Democrats and those alike keep saying oh, the brand is so bad...what the hell is the Republican brand. Please can we offer up solutions instead of just dragging the party down at every opportunity. This is not how you build a winning team. Yes, we may suck but Republicans suck more! Is it that hard to tell what the vision is while also showing where the monsters live? 😈 Republicans are monsters! Just cruel awful monsters!
I'm starting to wonder if the Democratic party is obsolete. They can't ever seem to get out of their own way, over the last 15 to 20 years. Now they've reached their true nadir, with Trump 2.0. Do they realize the desperate fix they're in? They continue to have no answers, no real leadership. They just waffle around worried in midair, flapping wings but getting nowhere. While the colossus they're up against only continues to solidify and strengthen. They have been out maneuvered and out smarted time and time again both lately and for years.
I realize there's never been a path for third parties, but I also cannot see lasting and credible path to victory for this Democrat Lost Boys party. Lost Boys. Where do we see a clear way forward, against the colossus? We have to understand what we're up against. It really is The Colossus, that must be defeated.
they're like 3 seats away from having a majority in the house and have lost two presidential elections by popular vote in 30 years
I hate to be that guy, but give the economy a little more runway to start tanking due to the inflationary pressure of tariffs and rotting crops. Do I want the economy to suffer? No. But it's headed that way and the Dems will rightly pounce.
a whole lot of "dems need to operate in a way that perfectly aligns with MY policy positions" going on in these comments
The Democratic leadership is so lacking in vision and, well, leadership capacity. Shumer andJeffries need to step aside and let younger, more dynamic leadership take over.
I never really did understand why Democrats think this bill will have a lasting negative impact on Trump and the GOP - unless it's just more whistling through the graveyard on their parts?
1. The tax rebates for seniors will be a huge hit, even with Democrat seniors. Seniors who qualify for the entire credit (which is most seniors) can see a $2-4,000 tax break. That's real money, and it could wipe out a huge chunk of their federal tax obligation.
2. Tipped wage workers across the country, but especially in NV, will see a big tax deduction that will also be popular, including with people who usually vote for Democrats.
3. The No-Tax-on-OT will also be popular with working class voters, especially if the GOP campaigns on this correctly next tax season.
4. All these things start immediately. Also, nobody got a tax rate cut in this bill. The bill simply extends CURRENT tax rates. What Democrats were arguing for was letting the 2017 rates expire and increasing tax rates for every American. Do they truly understand how unpopular that position can be made to seem?
5. The raising of the SALT tax limit will also be very popular, especially in the suburbs. $40,000 should cover everybody who owns a normal home - everywhere. The millionaires who pay more than that are either Coastals who already vote for Democrats, or are GOP voters who vote for the GOP for tax-cut reasons.
6. None of the bad stuff goes into effect until 2026, and the negative impact of it won't be felt until at least 2027 or 2028. It will take that long for the "rural hospitals to start to close". By then, there will be some other shiny new object to distract voters, or the rise of some new culture war issue on which most people agree with the GOP.
7. The healthcare coverage losses are still theoretical. Nobody is directly being thrown off their healthcare, and virtually no benefits are being directly cut. The loss of coverage estimates assume that people will lose coverage because they won't meet the work requirements or will get buried in the paperwork. These will be individual, somewhat one-off cases, not masses of people going from covered to not-covered overnight. That is going to be hard to generate much sustained emotion over. Plus, nobody with employer-provided HC will see any impact from the Medicaid cuts.
8. Dobbs was the biggest policy upheaval/risk since Obamacare,...and it fell flat on its face as an electoral issue. Flat. On. Its. Face. We may actually be too polarized as an electorate for ANY policy position to make much of a difference to 90%+ of voters.
For all these reasons and more, I think the 2026 midterms will hinge on two things, and two things only: Will MAGA turnout without Trump on the ballot? How personally unpopular/hated will Trump be by November 2026? I'm not sure this bill will make much difference on either of those two questions.
I responded to this comment of yours, but it is posted a few comments above this.
then why does it poll terribly?
Lots of things poll terribly, especially in the beginning. Trump polls terribly, but he also got elected president - twice. Obamacare polled terribly when it first passed, now it’s somewhat popular. Dems did a good job demonizing this bill, but if their dire predictions don’t pan out in a real obvious way, there could be a backlash, and they could be accused of crying wolf.
The truth is that this bill has more populist tax policy in it than any tax cut bill passed in the last 50 years. Or at least it can credibly be cast that way by proper marketing. And, as I said above, all the Medicaid cuts (people losing HC) are theoretical. Maybe people won’t have as much trouble with the paperwork? Majorities of voters do support the work requirements, at least in principle.
The SNAP cuts are more problematic, but Trump’s SNAP voters are a cult. They’ll stay with him even if he “snaps” their heads off, and the GOP doesn’t really need, or give a shit, about the Democrat SNAP recipients.
My guess is this will be much more popular than Paul Ryan’s corporate tax cut bill from 2017, though I concede, that’s a pretty low bar.
RBR,
I fear that you could be right regarding whether a meaningful number of Trump’s voters will turn on him in the near future. But at some point in the not so distant future, this “experiment in autocracy” in the United States is going to result in sheer devastation for the American people. Mark my words.
Maybe in the way of a massive terrorist attack from a foreign adversary or domestic extremist group. Or one of our naval vessels being sunk in the South China Sea. Or a pubic heath crisis worse than COVID. Or a compete collapse of the U.S. economy.
I wonder how many of Trump’s 2024 voters will still stick him after this inevitability occurs. And I apologize for being a “profit of doom” and Jeremiah here.
Your analyses are always well reasoned, even though I sometimes disagree with them substantively.
The fact that 16 million Americans very well could lose their Medicaid due to onerous paperwork requirements, and that hospitals in rural areas and nursing homes will shut down due to extreme spending cuts to providers may be enough to turn a chunk of 2024 Trump supporters against Republicans in 2026.
Even if some of them can’t bring themselves to vote for Democrats, at least maybe some will stay home in 2026.
What percentage of the U.S. do you still think would still support Trump if he “stood in the middle of 5th Avenue and shot someone?” I would conjecture about 40%.
And what percentage of the U.S. do you believe are “soft” MAGA voters?” I would surmise around 5%.
“…very well could”, not definitely will. Big difference, especially when you consider the typical effectiveness of Dem messaging.
As for Trump losing support? Remember, the vast majority of his voters don’t vote on policy. They vote on emotion. Emotion by definition is not rational. The rest are strategic and transactional, and fear Democrat policies. And they all hate “woke”, illegals and “DEI”. That isn’t going to change because someone “might” lose their Medicaid.
All that said, maybe you’re right? In a sane world you probably would be. We keep predicting his downfall, and Trump keeps winning, and we all end up looking like horse’s asses.
couldn't you say that running in 2026 on "they're about to take your medicare away vote for me and I can stop it" is just as effective as "they already took your medicare away in 2025 oh shucks"
You’re assuming people would believe you. The same voters who fear and dislike Democrats because of culture war issues? Something tells me they will choose not to believe.
I cast my last vote for a GOP candidate in the 1996 election so 29 years ago.
Democrats have too many activists for too many causes. While most, if not all, of those causes are good, they cause a problem. They water down peoples focus. I'm retired, have plenty of free time but there is no way I can keep up with all the causes that flood my inbox everyday begging for money.
So you know what happens to all those emails? Delete, delete, delete.
This is something that the GOP has long recognized, both for GOP candidates, and when attacking opposition Democrats. They don't bog down "their" voters with quantity. There are roughly three things you can count on with GOP candidates. God, guns, and immigration.
Democratic Party candidates try and put everything out in front of their voters. If there are fifty causes available, they put all fifty out there and that is a mistake. Fifty causes is glassy eye territory. On top of that, it provides the GOP with countless opportunities to disparage those causes.
DEI is a perfect example. The cause is just but on net I think DEI disparagement benefited the GOP more than the implementation of DEI type policies benefited the Democratic Party.
Ask yourself if DEI disparagement garnered more apathetic voters to swing to Trump or if naming ships after historic but under-recognized historical figures swung apathetic voters to Democrats.
Pick two or three issues that resonate with voters and focus on those. The average voter is for the most part apathetic to most everything outside their small world. Democratic Party strategists need to acknowledge that and focus accordingly. I am tired of mentally using the old cliche "Like herding cats" to describe the Democratic Party. Stop asking apathetic Democratic Party voters to be political junkies.
Unitary Executive, anyone? The Demopublicans still have not gotten the message that the game they are trying to play is not the game the Republicrats are playing and winning. Most of the worst effects of the BBB will play out over a time span far longer than the attention span of the notoriously fickle American electorate. By the time the mid-term elections are held Project 2025 and state gerrymandering will pretty much determine the outcome in my opinion. It is entirely possible that the Demopublicans will have to face President Vance as successor in interest to T. Rump whether by impeachment or displacement (give the old boy a gold watch and have him fade into the sunset at Mar a Lago - tell him the White House moved south...whatever).
“It’s not as black-and-white as I think some in D.C. feel like it’s going to be.”
Well, THERE'S your problem! People in DC are fools, always preparing for the last war. That's how we got Trump. And got Trump again. While the DNC is casting around for a quick sure-thing fix that will never appear, people are getting more and more pissed off. Oh, I know! How about a 'strongly-worded letter'!
That bill is chock full of goodies that Dems could pick up and use. But those goodies are mere tools, and that crowbar is not going to pick itself up. How about tying the bill to something that's not directly in it? Nobody will know. Nobody has read it. Dead kids in Texas from flood and disease. Showcase stories of grandma dying of stress because her Medicaid is cutting off. Or the hardship on her family who has to take her in. Or women dying because a doctor will not abort a dead fetus. No one will question that all those things are on the GOP, the DNC is just too chickenshit to start swinging the meataxe. Which is what it's going to take.
It feels like many elected democrats and their strategists keep waiting for someone else to take the GOP out for them. They gnashed their teeth over multiple MAGA lay ups because they weren't "kitchen table issues", they were "distractions". And now we have some of those fabled "kitchen table issues" and they start trying to lower expectations.
Agreed. Sort of like how Murkowski wanted the House to do the dirty work of killing The Bill, so she didn't sully her delicate little hands and raise the ire of her fascist colleagues. She wanted to do right by her beloved state? Right now, I'd like to see Alaska fucked 20 ways to Sunday.
I'm betting someone is going to emerge who goes after the GOP in a relentless and vicious manner, as is justified. The DNC will be AMAZED at the groundswell of popular support they will get. They learned nothing from either No Kings or Hands Off. They've learned nothing from either Mamdani or Hogg. They can't learn. They're dead from the neck up.
It's gonna get ugly.
Yup. Mamdani wins handily and I see a bunch of headlines on how Dems are trying to figure out how to keep him from winning. I don't love the guy, but when Republicans were trying to cram there BBB through I saw more headlines about how Dems were trying to figure out how to stop Mamdani from winning the primary or the general than about the bill.