What If Trump Is Trying To Break the GOP?
The future of the Republican party is an endless series of loyalty tests and Trump family vendettas. Good luck.
Itās hard for Republicans to think straight these days. Stop the count, no, waitādo a recount. Elections are rigged and fraudulent. But the January 5 Georgia runoff will be legit, so GOP voters need to psyche up and turn out.
Itās all so confusing.
And in their confusion, Republicans seem not to have noticed the new dynamic which is emerging. The combination of the āStop-the-Stealā ragers and the fear of the silent Republican establishment types are mothers milk to Trump.
Angry and afraid people fightingāover himāis the very top of his hierarchy of needs. Itās his version of self-actualization. And while he may be forced to give up the office of the presidency, he will not give up being at the center of this storm. Republicans donāt seem capable of understanding where this eventually leads. So let me spell it out for them:
Donald Trump is going to destroy their party.
Not because he wants to or even because heās trying to. But because the destruction of the GOP will be required in order to fill his psychological needs.
Trump started his Saturday morning on a RINO hunt, tweeting about a Washington Post report revealing only 25 Republicans in Congressāof 249 queriedāwould admit that Joe Biden had won the election. His reaction:
In the afternoon he asked Georgiaās Republican governor to overturn the election which had already been certified in his state. Hours later Trump flew to Georgia for a rally that was supposed to be about boosting the two Republican Senate candidates, but was mostly about lying that he won Georgia. Trump insisted that he really did win Georgia, despite it being ārigged,ā and warned about the runoff that ātheyāre going to try and rig this one, Iām sure.ā
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who rebuffed Trumpās demands hours earlier, took a beating at the rally. Trump said that Kemp should be ashamed of himself and openly suggested that Rep. Doug Collins should primary him in two years.
Hereās the problem with living in Trumpās conspiracy world: There is no way for Trump partisans to get revenge against the shadowy forces who āstoleā the election that Trump lost by a historic margin.
But now that Trump has demanded that specific elected officials break the law on his behalf, there will be a list of officeholders Trumpās people can mobilize against.
You canāt vote out Dominion. But you can go after Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensberger and Doug Ducey and any (and every) other Republican who refused to steal the election on Trumpās behalf.
And thatās where the anger that Trump is stoking in Republican voters is going to be channeled in the coming months. Because itās literally the only place it can flow.
Rudy Giuliani has also put Republicans on notice, because while he wonāt be taking the blame for the fruitless hunt for fake fraud, someone has to. Last week he raged on Twitter at Republican state legislators who he said have let America down by not trying to overturn their states election results.
Who does Giuliani mean when he says āRepublicansā? That label doesnāt mean much these days. After all, Trump wasnāt a Republican before he ran for president.
Jared Kushner bragged to Bob Woodward, Trump ābasically did a full hostile takeover of the Republican Partyā because his resonance with voters was less about policy and more about āattitude.ā
And that sounds about right. Which means that after the 2020 election, the definition of who is a ārealā Republican will be made by simple binary answer: Were you with Trump in his attempt to steal a āriggedā election, or against him? Are you in, or out, of the Trump personality cult?
Itās amusing to watch conventional Republicans try to cling to the idea that Trumpism is about policy, or ideology, or something other than Donald Trump and his āattitude.ā These people were happy to be complicit in Trumpism so long as they got their judges and nobody demanded that they break the law on Trumpās behalf. Now some of them find themselves up against the wall while guys like Ted Cruz look on nervously hoping that they can act butch enough that Trump wonāt demand a loyalty test of them the way he has of Kemp and Ducey.
Meanwhile, Trumpās true believersāthe sometimes drunk and always-viral misfit toysāhave pledged to die for the cause of Trumpās fake fraud, called for martial law and suspension of the Constitution, and the shooting of a high ranking former Homeland Security official.
What Mitch McConnell and company donāt seem to understand is that this is the endgame: The MAGA cult no longer sees Democrats and the media as Enemy Number One. The Republicans who arenāt legally permitted to deny reality are now the big threat. And Trump is going to spend the next twoāor fourāyears at war them.
As Trump pretends he's running for president in 2024, he will batter the Republican party. A Politico story this week quoted a donor who said he would immediately contribute to Trumpās new PAC, and noted that most donors would feel pressure to do the same, just to avoid his wrath. Jon Thompson, a former Trump campaign aide was quoted saying āIf he starts holding grudges against sitting officeholders and donors who decline to throw their support behind him, it is going to put Republicans in a bind.ā
Duh.
In the coming war Republicans wanting to win elections and hold power will do battle with Trumpkins who canāt win swing voters, but dominate primaries, fundraising, and the Parlersphere. Georgia wonāt see the only toxic primary in 2022. Lara Trump could run against Rep. Mark Walker in North Carolina, and the fight to fill retiring Sen. Pat Toomeyās seat in Pennsylvania should be a doozy as 64 of the stateās Republican state legislators signed a letter this week to the stateās congressional delegation calling for them to dispute the 2020 election results in Congress.
This gives Democrats the upper hand in all those races, should Trumpkin candidates prevail in primaries. Republicans will no longer benefit from MAGA devotees Trump mobilized in 2016 and 2020ābut notably not in 2018āwhile the party loses swing voters by fashioning Trump into an eternal victim of a āstolenā election. And all of thisāevery bit of itāwas foreseeable.
As Jonathan V. Last wrote on October 8: āGo write this down: After November 3, the price of admission to GOP politics is going to be an insistence that, actually, Donald Trump did win the election and/or would have won if it hadnāt been stolen/rigged.ā
Republicans will soon notice that Trump wonāt give a hoot about judges, just fighting. Trump is telling aides and allies that heās doing all of this because his supporters need to see him fighting a Biden victory. He will keep fighting Biden and the Democrats and the media but he will also pound any Republicans who do not bend the knee. Relentlessly. No policy or posture or line of propaganda will be pleasing enough to him. They can expect frequent put downs, pressure to flatter him and demands that they flout reality.
Without the bully pulpit and the power of the presidency Trump will bully harder.
Behavior and conduct within the Constitutional order is unacceptable to Trump. As Charlie Sykes asks: Will Vice President Mike Pence be attacked as a ācuckā if he attends Joe Bidenās inauguration? Almost certainly, yes. Which will mean that Pence willāagain, almost certainlyādecline to attend. Just another loyalty test to stay in the good graces of the cult leader.
Michael Gerson wrote about the danger Trumpās assault on democracy inspires:
āTrump is not merely claiming instances of election fraud. He is alleging that the American system of democratic government has failed, which implies a right to revolution. By demanding specific, unlawful acts to overturn results in a fair election, he is urging authoritarian solutions to his political problems.ā
What awaits Trump, after the season of election fraud TV ends on January 20, is serious legal exposure. He will make sure the GOP pays a price at each twist and turn of his coming prosecutions for various and sundry crimes. From obstruction of justice, to tax fraud, and so much more. Trumpās legal morass will be a chronic story in the years to come. Republicans will be asked to comment on each sordid discovery and ruling, and anyone unwilling to zealously defy the facts and fight back will be punished.
He will imply a right to revolution.
Republicans will soon have to accept Trump isnāt actually trying to be president again, or lead or unite a party. He simply intends to dominate and there is never enough submission. The next few years for Trump will be all about scalps.
Republican scalps.
Correction, Deb. 8, 2020, 1:33p.m.: An earlier version of this article reported that 75 Pennsylvania Republican lawmakers sent a letter urging Congress to dispute the state's presidential electors. This article has been updated to reflect that 11 of those signatories were included by mistake.
