I listened to Timothy Snyder talking recently about his 20 lessons for resisting Tyranny. He explained the order was from easiest / least intrusive at number 1 to most difficult and most invasive at number 20.
#1 is the one that gets all the attention, "Don't Obey in Advance."
#20? "Be as courageous as you can." It's listed last because it's the most difficult.
His book On Tyranny is not new--2017, but could have been 2026 copyright. It's an easy read and has the points for resisting tyranny clearly stated. And it definitely begins with "Don't Obey in Advance."
Met friends from Raleigh in AVL for dinner last night, and when she told us this I immediately felt nauseated.
Marc Elias had Roy Cooper on recently, and I was surprised to hear Marc say that the NC Republican legislature is the worst (or maybe he said "corrupt" or something similar) in the country. I know they've been horrendous for a long time; but wow.
With the potential we have to contribute significantly to Dem wins in November, guess we should expect to be a particularly juicy target.
I hadn't heard that and I live in NC, so that's disturbing. Apparently, actually voting for Trump is not a prophylactic against his delusions of voter fraud.
The Palantir data miners being used to facilitate deportations can just as easily be applied to dealing with members of "domestic extremist organizations": E.g. Democrats.
The Anthropic story is worth paying attention to. They are trying to do the right thing as a company and Hegseth (in his gravity defying level of ignorance) designated them a supply chain risk. I don't think most people realize just how far along AI has come and just how civilization destroying it could be in the wrong hands (like the hands of anyone with Hegseth level of ignorance).
Suffice it to say, there is a lot of stupid in this country and a disproportionate amount of them are currently at the highest levels of government.
People don't appreciate how far along it is now nor the potential for where it will be in the future, and not even that far in the future. I think the world is about to be a very different place within a couple of years.
I believe that AI is both overestimated and underestimated. There is a lot of hype and overestimation that is floating around in investment circles and in the public.
Many people do not actually understand how AI works or what it is actually good at. That leads to overestimation and some unrealistic fears. It also leads to poor utilization of AI and a lack of fear about things people SHOULD be afraid of.
And a binary perception of the effect of AI on humanity, in general--either the greatest thing since sliced bread that is going to free us and save us--or the thing that is going to kill off humanity.
My biggest concerns with AI right now are white collar job loss and lots of kids graduating from college with huge debts and no job prospects, and a subsequent further concentration of wealth and increased wealth inequality. I think these impacts are increasingly unavoidable as AIs take more of a role in coding their own updates. These are outcomes that can be remediated with sound policies, but these are policies that would be redistributive and socialist, and we are a country that seems too stupid to take the medicine that will save our lives if monied interests and the GOP simply refer to that medicine as "socialism."
I don't have a problem with widespread unemployment, per se, as I'd happily live on a comfortable UBI and simply pursue whatever interests tickle my fancy. And while that outcome is possible and entirely feasible, I don't think it's the one we end up choosing.
I do not see UBI being a thing in the US unless there is a major shift in general American culture and attitudes... and I do not see the "winners" in the new AI economy being willing to foot the bill for it.
Most of the economic shift (at least initially) is going to be in areas that are centered around language and in institutional management. A lot of white collar and administrative jobs are going to go away or be much reduced in scope. This includes a lot of software engineering, except at the higher end, perhaps. This includes the legal profession, as well and a lot of managerial positions.
My advice to young people these days is to go into the trades. College increasingly looks like it is not going to get you a decent ROI unless its cost comes down considerably. Until robots get a lot better, there will be opportunties there.
I also look for education employment to take a huge hit. I do not think that this would work out well, but it is something that is going to happen. "Teaching" is going to shift from people teaching people to people watching machines teach people--at least until we discover how badly that goes. I already see this happening with the use of canned curriculums and shifts in teaching/learning patterns.
As you point out, much of this could be remediated with sound policy. But a lot of that policy runs counter to the American mythos as it would be redistributive (though unlikely socialist). So this will end up being a hot mess for the next generation or so.
But what is a "comfortable" UBI? I personally think the government has an obligation to ensure the American people survive (meaning in case it's not clear, not die unnecessarily), but not necessarily to ensure "thriving" or "comfort" - much more subjective terms. I've generally come around to the idea of UBI replacing most or all of our current social welfare systems, which is saying something for someone with sometimes strong libertarian leanings.
We have kind of a perfect storm happening as Gen X comes into retirement and there are simultaneously fewer 18-22 year-olds to send to college, which will leave gaps in leadership and entry level white collar work in ways I don’t think we’re prepared for. As you’re saying, we’re rejecting the policies that will be needed on an individual basis, and at the same time we’re wasting crucial time in terms of responsibly designing and implementing AI that can address those gulfs of knowledge and experience.
Yeah, my definition of comfortable is probably at a lower income level than others' definition would be, and it would be complicated to calculate (How many kids in your household? What is the cost of living where you live). But, these are details we would just have to work out. And we'll have these AIs to help us figure it out.
As an example, as a middle class family of 4 in our area to be "comfortable", you need roughly $180k a year of income. That's not living high on the hog-it's just the reality of needing 2 reliable cars, insurance, and a cheaply built house from the 80's running $600k.
I don't know how even a single person could survive on a UBI of $2K; renting a room would take 1/2 of that in many places. Car insurance here is $180/month for a great driver, due to all of the crazies on the road. Food, gas, car repairs: that's $2k right there.
No disagreement with your first sentence. However, if the alignment problem isn't addressed in a way that is pro human existence, the same AI that can cure cancer can become the AI that uses a bio weapon to wipe out humanity.
Or the Anthropic announcement and the dutiful parroting of their dire warnings by media is fear mongering marketing hype. Note how they are not providing the model to anyone outside of partners with huge financial stakes in keeping the Large Language Model (LLM) hype going. Given that Anthropic CEO Amodei got a meeting with Wiles, the ploy seems to have worked. This is an area where the media, including much of the new, independent media, are failing to demand proof and seemingly uninterested in getting the perspectives of LLM skeptics and outside experts. These guys are making billions but no one seems to be challenging their claims.
Excerpts from Ian Krietzberg at Puck:
"The goal, according to Anthropic, is to give the world’s top tech companies and governments time to fortify their cybersecurity defenses against the “thousands” of “high-severity vulnerabilities” that Mythos was able to identify and potentially exploit in critical software around the globe. Some of these included decades-old bugs, often ignored or overlooked, in a couple of open-source software projects."
"Indeed, Dr. Heidy Khlaaf, the chief A.I. scientist at the A.I. Now Institute, noted that Anthropic chose not to disclose how often Mythos “found” vulnerabilities that weren’t actually there (false positives), and that it didn’t describe how human evaluators rated the system’s bug-finding abilities. Independent researchers can’t do this work or compare results with Anthropic’s either, since the model hasn’t been released."
"When I called up David Kennedy, a former N.S.A. hacker and the C.E.O. of the cybersecurity firm TrustedSec, he acknowledged that “a lot of the Mythos stuff was very, very overhyped.” But he did underscore the ability of increasingly advanced L.L.M.s to empower bad actors."
"Aisle C.E.O. Ondřej Vlček told me that the most impressive (or concerning) thing about Mythos is not its ability to identify vulnerabilities, but its apparent ability to autonomously exploit them. Like the rest of us, he’d like to be able to independently verify Anthropic’s claims."
Really Hegseth is just a smokescreen regarding Anthropic. People like David Sacks, Sam Altman, etc. who have a direct line to the Oval Office are trying to destroy Anthropic because they don't subscribe to the AI hive mind of "there's nothing wrong with AI and we're the best thing invented since sliced bread."
Dario Amodei left OpenAI to found Anthropic because he to a certain point is the Oppenheimer of the AI industry where he's afraid of what happens if what they've conjured up is fully unleashed.
Whether the subject is layoffs, deportations, or lethal force, ethical AI uses the term "nominate." The program nominates a person or a situation for human decision makers to consider. Hegseth wants surveillance and lethal force to be autonomous--he wants to drop the nomination step.
The worst people imaginable will use it to kill millions, enslave others, and eventually kill the rest of us and there's nothing you or I can do that will stop them
Kudos to General Hertling for sharing with us the importance of proper usage of language, particularly with regard to military-themed contexts. On a general level, as a language instructor myself, it is applicable on multiple levels, in this era when things such as good communication skills and critical thinking have taken a distant back seat to considerations like "will these classes help you to get a job?". The importance of many things is measurable in ways other than dollars and cents, and often is more substantive than that to our own personal growth and evolution.
Similarly, in this specific case Hertling effectively tutors us all on how words matter when they effectively dehumanize important human experiences and create misunderstandings about critical public policy. One need not be a general to know and understand that war is not a game, and that inaccurate terminology can have the byproduct of leading to bad outcomes when they do not match the reality of the situation. We are not talking about playing with G.I. Joe dolls as kids, and it isn't about a Secretary of Defense trying to employ verbal shock and awe, far more impressed with how strong he looks and how forceful of an impression he makes than with the reality of what our goals and purposes are and should be. Perception matters, and when people misuse language, especially intentionally, to achieve desired ends, it abuses our trust and confidence in them to be both honest and accurate in other settings as well. Thank you, General Hertling, for the timely reminder that words sometimes are more important than actions in their impact upon others.
We certainly could use his clear-headed and logical approach to problem solving and understanding how to align goals and outcomes, among other areas in which the current regime is performing poorly with its make-it-up-as-you-go strategy (or lack thereof).
Every profession or area of work has its own vocabulary and phraseology. Understanding those things helps us understand what is meant when someone in the profession uses the words. Unfortunately, people don't recognize that and instead adopt phrases that evoke some sort of emotion in them.
So true, I have been a military member who worked on ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles), then worked also in Intelligence, and then became a nurse. All of these areas of work have their own language. It is so important when communicating to others outside your profession to speak in a common language. It only causes confusion when we don't explain what we are talking about accurately. Not to mention the overuse of acronymns!
I enjoyed it, too. As he notes with Colin Powell, bluntness can be a virtue -- while, at the same time, it should not diminish the sacrifices or the horror of war.
Different context, but I'm reminded of the famous exchange from "Unforgiven":
The Schofield Kid: [after killing a man for the first time] It don't seem real... how he ain't gonna never breathe again, ever... how he's dead. And the other one too. All on account of pulling a trigger.
Will Munny: It's a hell of a thing, killing a man. Take away all he's got and all he's ever gonna have.
The Schofield Kid: Yeah, well, I guess they had it coming.
I'll add to the general's list of terrible euphemisms "mowing the grass," which according to Wikipedia is used to mean, "periodic Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip to manage the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."
The natives are always seen as a problem to be controlled and contained. The only reason we have romantic notions about hours, is we reduced them to near nothing where they are no longer a threat. Before that we behaved hysterically whenever they demonstrated any resistance. Where do you think ‘to go off the reservation’ came from?
But an apt metaphor in one way. Over two decades, Hamas' ability to attack Israel "grew back" at least a dozen times prior to the current Gaza situation, and I expect it to grow back again.
I know we as Americans are a parochial bunch, but Trump has been burning through whatever goodwill others had towards us and this was even before the Iran war. I have a friend who works as a physician in a remote hospital in Rwanda who said at a conference earlier this year, and she is American, that they need all the help they can get, but stressed that non-Americans are preferred. Why? Our behavior and policy towards others, particularly those so called shit hole countries are having repercussions. Countries like Rwanda are no longer giving visas to American aid workers and no longer renewing them when they expire — many are having to leave as their visas expire. That American passport isn’t as valuable as it used to be courtesy of DJT.
Trump's psychopathology became the heart of our foreign policy, resulting in this core doctrine: "We're bigger and richer and better than anyone else, but they've all been ripping us off, so now we're going to show them who's boss - and we don't really need their help but we expect it if we demand it."
This doctrine has been supported by reactionary culture-warriors who think our traditional alliances have been a means of imposing woke liberalism on the world and that assisting countries like Rwanda is a betrayal of our own culture.
You can hide a lot of things with language. You can make horrible things seem acceptable or even good. You can turn people into objects and objects into people. You can clarify or obscure.
Most politicians go for obscuration--even if it is only by making noises while actually saying... nothing. Politicians are masters at saying nothing, followed closely by a lot of social scientists and humanists.
Slogans are absolutely devoid of content other than general identity markers. Euphemisms should be avoided. If you can't say the actual thing--then you need to look at what you are saying and why you can't say it (or, if listening, why they are not saying it).
I was in the Navy. Communication had to be very precise and coordinated. It was precise and coordinated to the extend that everything was literally scripted. THIS is what you say. This served to (ina sense) collapse communication because as soon as you saw where you were in the script, you need what was happening, you knew what was next--and if something was off-script, then you knew there was a problem, immediately.
OK...so it's completely your fault...you brought to mind that scene from "Best Little Whorehouse in Texas" where the Governor (Charles Durning) performs "The Sidestep".
I actually planned to just paste some of the lyrics in this post, but realized that they aren't nearly as good without the performance. The music, the singing, the choreography and the reporter reactions make it a classic scene. Really well done.
As a former army officer I applaud General Hertlings points regarding irresponsible use of language by politicians. I am also sometimes taken aback by how little some members of the mainstream media understand about the military. Some reporting is misleading, I suspect not intentionally. My theory is that so few Americans have served or know people who have that we have lost touch with what the military is all about, even though they work for us as a society.
Thank you, General Hertling. Amen. I think there is something else worth calling out here. A lot of this sloppy language gets tossed around by politicians and news people who want to seem "in" with the military, say our Secretary of WAR, for example, so it's not innocent. Particularly with the warrior talk, it's a sleezy, disingenuous way to butter military personnel up by people who don't really respect them. They just want to use them. Being a soldier is a profession, which is very different from having an ethos. Both are important, but professionalism is what makes our military what it is
Since 2007, with the introduction of the iPhone, the way the world communicates has changed radically. It is difficult to read this entire post without getting interrupted by a text, a ping, or some kind of communication, many of which are from bots. It makes it difficult to concentrate and even more difficult to think critically.
Trump is a master of telling lies in short bursts. It is difficult to know if he knows he is lying or if he is living the fantasy. Unfortunately, to many people, Trump is our leader, and they take what he says as real. They don't take the time to think critically about it because the next lie is already on the way. Unfortunately, many of his lies have led to the suffering and death of millions of people.
I appreciated Mark Hertling’s section on the importance of honest language, but do wonder on what kind of date “Take down the leader” or “Take out the commander” would be uttered.
There are so many things about Trump and what he's done since taking office a second time that cause me ire, but the most current thing and something we should NOT have to hear, but for him, "US-Iran Peace Talks." If he hadn't been duped by Bibi in the first place, none of this would be necessary. I know, I'm stating the obvious, but damn!
Well...along the very same lines is that he's planning to add this to his list of how many wars he's ended. I guess the Nobel Peace prize questionnaire doesn't include a question of "How many wars have you started?"
I love that his truth social post this morning inadvertently called it the Strait of Iran instead of Hormuz. Total Freudian slip.
I heard something from somewhere yesterday, could have been The Bulwark, but they suggested that Trump wants to rename the strait to Strait of Trump. I guess that makes it easier for him to remember?!?!?
Yes...I actually heard Trump say it. Although...everyone in the administration will use that tried and true excuse (especially by this crew)..."He was joking!"
Duped? I dunno about that. Appearing to be tough is very appealing to this president and he was apparently very happy with the result of going into Venezuela so he was ready to be convinced.
“Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Axios reports, is heading to the White House today for a meeting with Chief of Staff Susie Wiles”. Frightening thought….Susie Wiles is the WH expert on all things AI?
Isn't she an expert on professional wrestling? If so, wouldn't it follow that she's an expert in education? In AI? Or maybe on health care? Maybe she's one of those stable geniuses.
Re NJ 11, can I say that I met Analilia while she walked around my town. While I wanted someone else, she is very magnetic in person and also clearly able to hold her own. She also brought out Hispanic voters in towns like Dover so not the worst choice.
The imprecision of military language of the “Department of War” is deliberate, they choose not to shape thought but emotion. Stir up the enthusiasm for a spectacular campaign, speaking of boots on the ground with no thought to the human beings, sons and daughters, inside those boots, who could very well end up dying a dreadful death. Mark Twain’s “The War Prayer”, about what people are really asking to come about with their prayers to God for military success, comes to mind:
"O Lord our Father, our young patriots, idols of our hearts, go forth to battle-be Thou near them! With them, in spirit, we also go forth from the sweet peace of our beloved firesides to smite the foe. O Lord our God, help us to tear their soldiers to bloody shreds with our shells; help us to cover their smiling fields with the pale forms of their patriot dead; help us to drown the thunder of the guns with the shrieks of their wounded, writhing in pain; help us to lay waste their humble homes with a hurricane of fire; help us to wring the hearts of their unoffending widows with unavailing grief; help us to turn them out roofless with their little children to wander unfriended the wastes of their desolated land in rags and hunger and thirst, sports of the sun flames of summer and the icy winds of winter, broken in spirit, worn with travail, imploring Thee for the refuge of the grave and denied it-for our sakes who adore Thee, Lord, blast their hopes, blight their lives, protract their bitter pilgrimage, make heavy their steps, water their way with their tears, stain the white snow with the blood of their wounded feet! We ask it, in the spirit of love, of Him Who is the Source of Love, and Who is ever-faithful refuge and friend of all that are sore beset and seek His aid with humble and contrite hearts. Amen.
Twain's point should be well taken by anyone giving the matter of "war prayers" more than just a passing thought.
As should the words from another war prayer from another now famous American a long time ago, in which he at least sought God's blessing for the right outcome for the right reasons...
"With Thy blessing, we shall prevail over the unholy forces of our enemy. Help us to conquer the apostles of greed and racial arrogancies. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister Nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace, a peace invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men. And a peace that will let all of men live in freedom, reaping the just rewards of their honest toil."
Now, sadly, the apostles of greed and racial arrogancies again hold sway, but this time within our own borders. Proving we're never invulnerable to the schemeings of unworthy men. So, I pray a bit myself these days...
I pray they reap their just reward and that right soon.
Hey... if Pete Hegseth can conflate prayer and cinematic dialogue, so can I...
What frightens me is that our current government (and in particular our Secretary of WAR!!!) would speak that prayer meaning every word of it. They WANT innocent people to suffer!
The state of NC BOE decided yesterday to turn over our voter rolls to DHS, so that’s not terrifying at all. 🫠🫠
He is absolutely going to get more desperate, which mixed with his clear declining mental stability makes the next several months extremely dangerous.
Great work everyone.
I listened to Timothy Snyder talking recently about his 20 lessons for resisting Tyranny. He explained the order was from easiest / least intrusive at number 1 to most difficult and most invasive at number 20.
#1 is the one that gets all the attention, "Don't Obey in Advance."
#20? "Be as courageous as you can." It's listed last because it's the most difficult.
But we got this.
His book On Tyranny is not new--2017, but could have been 2026 copyright. It's an easy read and has the points for resisting tyranny clearly stated. And it definitely begins with "Don't Obey in Advance."
I love this.
Met friends from Raleigh in AVL for dinner last night, and when she told us this I immediately felt nauseated.
Marc Elias had Roy Cooper on recently, and I was surprised to hear Marc say that the NC Republican legislature is the worst (or maybe he said "corrupt" or something similar) in the country. I know they've been horrendous for a long time; but wow.
With the potential we have to contribute significantly to Dem wins in November, guess we should expect to be a particularly juicy target.
In Dictator Donnie's eyes NC is a Blue state no matter how much trump bootlicking its politicians do.
I hadn't heard that and I live in NC, so that's disturbing. Apparently, actually voting for Trump is not a prophylactic against his delusions of voter fraud.
Yeah start checking your registration regularly to make sure you are not purged.
The Palantir data miners being used to facilitate deportations can just as easily be applied to dealing with members of "domestic extremist organizations": E.g. Democrats.
It's almost like NC is jealous of Alabama and Mississippi and wants to be them! I wish I could afford to move out of this God forsaken state!
RIchard, did you mean "state" and not a greater entity, e.g., country?
Ah yes!!! Thank you my friend!
Being in Germany, it seemed like a natural question.
Texas practically put them on a silver platter for the orange one.
A cornered rat is very dangerous.
The Anthropic story is worth paying attention to. They are trying to do the right thing as a company and Hegseth (in his gravity defying level of ignorance) designated them a supply chain risk. I don't think most people realize just how far along AI has come and just how civilization destroying it could be in the wrong hands (like the hands of anyone with Hegseth level of ignorance).
Suffice it to say, there is a lot of stupid in this country and a disproportionate amount of them are currently at the highest levels of government.
People don't appreciate how far along it is now nor the potential for where it will be in the future, and not even that far in the future. I think the world is about to be a very different place within a couple of years.
I believe that AI is both overestimated and underestimated. There is a lot of hype and overestimation that is floating around in investment circles and in the public.
Many people do not actually understand how AI works or what it is actually good at. That leads to overestimation and some unrealistic fears. It also leads to poor utilization of AI and a lack of fear about things people SHOULD be afraid of.
And a binary perception of the effect of AI on humanity, in general--either the greatest thing since sliced bread that is going to free us and save us--or the thing that is going to kill off humanity.
My biggest concerns with AI right now are white collar job loss and lots of kids graduating from college with huge debts and no job prospects, and a subsequent further concentration of wealth and increased wealth inequality. I think these impacts are increasingly unavoidable as AIs take more of a role in coding their own updates. These are outcomes that can be remediated with sound policies, but these are policies that would be redistributive and socialist, and we are a country that seems too stupid to take the medicine that will save our lives if monied interests and the GOP simply refer to that medicine as "socialism."
I don't have a problem with widespread unemployment, per se, as I'd happily live on a comfortable UBI and simply pursue whatever interests tickle my fancy. And while that outcome is possible and entirely feasible, I don't think it's the one we end up choosing.
I do not see UBI being a thing in the US unless there is a major shift in general American culture and attitudes... and I do not see the "winners" in the new AI economy being willing to foot the bill for it.
Most of the economic shift (at least initially) is going to be in areas that are centered around language and in institutional management. A lot of white collar and administrative jobs are going to go away or be much reduced in scope. This includes a lot of software engineering, except at the higher end, perhaps. This includes the legal profession, as well and a lot of managerial positions.
My advice to young people these days is to go into the trades. College increasingly looks like it is not going to get you a decent ROI unless its cost comes down considerably. Until robots get a lot better, there will be opportunties there.
I also look for education employment to take a huge hit. I do not think that this would work out well, but it is something that is going to happen. "Teaching" is going to shift from people teaching people to people watching machines teach people--at least until we discover how badly that goes. I already see this happening with the use of canned curriculums and shifts in teaching/learning patterns.
As you point out, much of this could be remediated with sound policy. But a lot of that policy runs counter to the American mythos as it would be redistributive (though unlikely socialist). So this will end up being a hot mess for the next generation or so.
But what is a "comfortable" UBI? I personally think the government has an obligation to ensure the American people survive (meaning in case it's not clear, not die unnecessarily), but not necessarily to ensure "thriving" or "comfort" - much more subjective terms. I've generally come around to the idea of UBI replacing most or all of our current social welfare systems, which is saying something for someone with sometimes strong libertarian leanings.
We have kind of a perfect storm happening as Gen X comes into retirement and there are simultaneously fewer 18-22 year-olds to send to college, which will leave gaps in leadership and entry level white collar work in ways I don’t think we’re prepared for. As you’re saying, we’re rejecting the policies that will be needed on an individual basis, and at the same time we’re wasting crucial time in terms of responsibly designing and implementing AI that can address those gulfs of knowledge and experience.
Yeah, my definition of comfortable is probably at a lower income level than others' definition would be, and it would be complicated to calculate (How many kids in your household? What is the cost of living where you live). But, these are details we would just have to work out. And we'll have these AIs to help us figure it out.
As an example, as a middle class family of 4 in our area to be "comfortable", you need roughly $180k a year of income. That's not living high on the hog-it's just the reality of needing 2 reliable cars, insurance, and a cheaply built house from the 80's running $600k.
I don't know how even a single person could survive on a UBI of $2K; renting a room would take 1/2 of that in many places. Car insurance here is $180/month for a great driver, due to all of the crazies on the road. Food, gas, car repairs: that's $2k right there.
A UBI wouldn't and shouldn't be sufficient to assure a "middle class" lifestyle. It should be enough to assure survivable poverty for most.
No disagreement with your first sentence. However, if the alignment problem isn't addressed in a way that is pro human existence, the same AI that can cure cancer can become the AI that uses a bio weapon to wipe out humanity.
Or the Anthropic announcement and the dutiful parroting of their dire warnings by media is fear mongering marketing hype. Note how they are not providing the model to anyone outside of partners with huge financial stakes in keeping the Large Language Model (LLM) hype going. Given that Anthropic CEO Amodei got a meeting with Wiles, the ploy seems to have worked. This is an area where the media, including much of the new, independent media, are failing to demand proof and seemingly uninterested in getting the perspectives of LLM skeptics and outside experts. These guys are making billions but no one seems to be challenging their claims.
Excerpts from Ian Krietzberg at Puck:
"The goal, according to Anthropic, is to give the world’s top tech companies and governments time to fortify their cybersecurity defenses against the “thousands” of “high-severity vulnerabilities” that Mythos was able to identify and potentially exploit in critical software around the globe. Some of these included decades-old bugs, often ignored or overlooked, in a couple of open-source software projects."
"Indeed, Dr. Heidy Khlaaf, the chief A.I. scientist at the A.I. Now Institute, noted that Anthropic chose not to disclose how often Mythos “found” vulnerabilities that weren’t actually there (false positives), and that it didn’t describe how human evaluators rated the system’s bug-finding abilities. Independent researchers can’t do this work or compare results with Anthropic’s either, since the model hasn’t been released."
"When I called up David Kennedy, a former N.S.A. hacker and the C.E.O. of the cybersecurity firm TrustedSec, he acknowledged that “a lot of the Mythos stuff was very, very overhyped.” But he did underscore the ability of increasingly advanced L.L.M.s to empower bad actors."
"Aisle C.E.O. Ondřej Vlček told me that the most impressive (or concerning) thing about Mythos is not its ability to identify vulnerabilities, but its apparent ability to autonomously exploit them. Like the rest of us, he’d like to be able to independently verify Anthropic’s claims."
https://puck.news/is-anthropics-mythos-model-as-dangerous-as-everyone-says/
Really Hegseth is just a smokescreen regarding Anthropic. People like David Sacks, Sam Altman, etc. who have a direct line to the Oval Office are trying to destroy Anthropic because they don't subscribe to the AI hive mind of "there's nothing wrong with AI and we're the best thing invented since sliced bread."
Dario Amodei left OpenAI to found Anthropic because he to a certain point is the Oppenheimer of the AI industry where he's afraid of what happens if what they've conjured up is fully unleashed.
Whether the subject is layoffs, deportations, or lethal force, ethical AI uses the term "nominate." The program nominates a person or a situation for human decision makers to consider. Hegseth wants surveillance and lethal force to be autonomous--he wants to drop the nomination step.
The worst people imaginable will use it to kill millions, enslave others, and eventually kill the rest of us and there's nothing you or I can do that will stop them
Kudos to General Hertling for sharing with us the importance of proper usage of language, particularly with regard to military-themed contexts. On a general level, as a language instructor myself, it is applicable on multiple levels, in this era when things such as good communication skills and critical thinking have taken a distant back seat to considerations like "will these classes help you to get a job?". The importance of many things is measurable in ways other than dollars and cents, and often is more substantive than that to our own personal growth and evolution.
Similarly, in this specific case Hertling effectively tutors us all on how words matter when they effectively dehumanize important human experiences and create misunderstandings about critical public policy. One need not be a general to know and understand that war is not a game, and that inaccurate terminology can have the byproduct of leading to bad outcomes when they do not match the reality of the situation. We are not talking about playing with G.I. Joe dolls as kids, and it isn't about a Secretary of Defense trying to employ verbal shock and awe, far more impressed with how strong he looks and how forceful of an impression he makes than with the reality of what our goals and purposes are and should be. Perception matters, and when people misuse language, especially intentionally, to achieve desired ends, it abuses our trust and confidence in them to be both honest and accurate in other settings as well. Thank you, General Hertling, for the timely reminder that words sometimes are more important than actions in their impact upon others.
How about Hertling for Sec. of Defense in the next Democratic Administration? Sounds fantastic to me.
We certainly could use his clear-headed and logical approach to problem solving and understanding how to align goals and outcomes, among other areas in which the current regime is performing poorly with its make-it-up-as-you-go strategy (or lack thereof).
What a difference from Champaign Pete, Dan "raising" Caine and DJT it would be!
Hell, why not president.
My thoughts exactly!
Thank you for saying precisely what I intended to say, but way better than I would have. Gen. Hertling is an important voice for us.
Every profession or area of work has its own vocabulary and phraseology. Understanding those things helps us understand what is meant when someone in the profession uses the words. Unfortunately, people don't recognize that and instead adopt phrases that evoke some sort of emotion in them.
So true, I have been a military member who worked on ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles), then worked also in Intelligence, and then became a nurse. All of these areas of work have their own language. It is so important when communicating to others outside your profession to speak in a common language. It only causes confusion when we don't explain what we are talking about accurately. Not to mention the overuse of acronymns!
Don't get me started on acronyms!
Or, as the lazy masses put it, DGMSOA, since the full expression is TL;DR for them.
I enjoyed it, too. As he notes with Colin Powell, bluntness can be a virtue -- while, at the same time, it should not diminish the sacrifices or the horror of war.
Different context, but I'm reminded of the famous exchange from "Unforgiven":
The Schofield Kid: [after killing a man for the first time] It don't seem real... how he ain't gonna never breathe again, ever... how he's dead. And the other one too. All on account of pulling a trigger.
Will Munny: It's a hell of a thing, killing a man. Take away all he's got and all he's ever gonna have.
The Schofield Kid: Yeah, well, I guess they had it coming.
Will Munny: We all got it coming, kid.
Mark Hertling is a gem, thank you, shine on
I'll add to the general's list of terrible euphemisms "mowing the grass," which according to Wikipedia is used to mean, "periodic Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip to manage the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."
dehumanizing rhetoric to sane wash or whitewash deaths from weapons of war
The natives are always seen as a problem to be controlled and contained. The only reason we have romantic notions about hours, is we reduced them to near nothing where they are no longer a threat. Before that we behaved hysterically whenever they demonstrated any resistance. Where do you think ‘to go off the reservation’ came from?
But an apt metaphor in one way. Over two decades, Hamas' ability to attack Israel "grew back" at least a dozen times prior to the current Gaza situation, and I expect it to grow back again.
I know we as Americans are a parochial bunch, but Trump has been burning through whatever goodwill others had towards us and this was even before the Iran war. I have a friend who works as a physician in a remote hospital in Rwanda who said at a conference earlier this year, and she is American, that they need all the help they can get, but stressed that non-Americans are preferred. Why? Our behavior and policy towards others, particularly those so called shit hole countries are having repercussions. Countries like Rwanda are no longer giving visas to American aid workers and no longer renewing them when they expire — many are having to leave as their visas expire. That American passport isn’t as valuable as it used to be courtesy of DJT.
Trump's psychopathology became the heart of our foreign policy, resulting in this core doctrine: "We're bigger and richer and better than anyone else, but they've all been ripping us off, so now we're going to show them who's boss - and we don't really need their help but we expect it if we demand it."
This doctrine has been supported by reactionary culture-warriors who think our traditional alliances have been a means of imposing woke liberalism on the world and that assisting countries like Rwanda is a betrayal of our own culture.
I'm honestly surprised Trump hasn't killed off the Peace Corps. I'm sure it's on the list.
You can hide a lot of things with language. You can make horrible things seem acceptable or even good. You can turn people into objects and objects into people. You can clarify or obscure.
Most politicians go for obscuration--even if it is only by making noises while actually saying... nothing. Politicians are masters at saying nothing, followed closely by a lot of social scientists and humanists.
Slogans are absolutely devoid of content other than general identity markers. Euphemisms should be avoided. If you can't say the actual thing--then you need to look at what you are saying and why you can't say it (or, if listening, why they are not saying it).
I was in the Navy. Communication had to be very precise and coordinated. It was precise and coordinated to the extend that everything was literally scripted. THIS is what you say. This served to (ina sense) collapse communication because as soon as you saw where you were in the script, you need what was happening, you knew what was next--and if something was off-script, then you knew there was a problem, immediately.
Exactly! There is a reason why we had specific phraseology for every type of communication.
OK...so it's completely your fault...you brought to mind that scene from "Best Little Whorehouse in Texas" where the Governor (Charles Durning) performs "The Sidestep".
I actually planned to just paste some of the lyrics in this post, but realized that they aren't nearly as good without the performance. The music, the singing, the choreography and the reporter reactions make it a classic scene. Really well done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AALREbJZEZk
LOL, I have never seen that. TY for the link.
Same. That was great.
As a former army officer I applaud General Hertlings points regarding irresponsible use of language by politicians. I am also sometimes taken aback by how little some members of the mainstream media understand about the military. Some reporting is misleading, I suspect not intentionally. My theory is that so few Americans have served or know people who have that we have lost touch with what the military is all about, even though they work for us as a society.
Thank you, General Hertling. Amen. I think there is something else worth calling out here. A lot of this sloppy language gets tossed around by politicians and news people who want to seem "in" with the military, say our Secretary of WAR, for example, so it's not innocent. Particularly with the warrior talk, it's a sleezy, disingenuous way to butter military personnel up by people who don't really respect them. They just want to use them. Being a soldier is a profession, which is very different from having an ethos. Both are important, but professionalism is what makes our military what it is
Since 2007, with the introduction of the iPhone, the way the world communicates has changed radically. It is difficult to read this entire post without getting interrupted by a text, a ping, or some kind of communication, many of which are from bots. It makes it difficult to concentrate and even more difficult to think critically.
Trump is a master of telling lies in short bursts. It is difficult to know if he knows he is lying or if he is living the fantasy. Unfortunately, to many people, Trump is our leader, and they take what he says as real. They don't take the time to think critically about it because the next lie is already on the way. Unfortunately, many of his lies have led to the suffering and death of millions of people.
I appreciated Mark Hertling’s section on the importance of honest language, but do wonder on what kind of date “Take down the leader” or “Take out the commander” would be uttered.
Perhaps those phrases are video game-speak, not military-speak.
Which I took as Hertling’s point, but you’re right that I hadn’t thought of playing video games on a date. Maybe that’s common these days.
Apparently some weird euphemisms?
"We're not on the kind of date where you bust out your euphemism, sir!"
There are so many things about Trump and what he's done since taking office a second time that cause me ire, but the most current thing and something we should NOT have to hear, but for him, "US-Iran Peace Talks." If he hadn't been duped by Bibi in the first place, none of this would be necessary. I know, I'm stating the obvious, but damn!
Well...along the very same lines is that he's planning to add this to his list of how many wars he's ended. I guess the Nobel Peace prize questionnaire doesn't include a question of "How many wars have you started?"
I love that his truth social post this morning inadvertently called it the Strait of Iran instead of Hormuz. Total Freudian slip.
I read that our treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday called the Strait of Hormuz the Strait of Vermouth by accident! no joke.
I heard something from somewhere yesterday, could have been The Bulwark, but they suggested that Trump wants to rename the strait to Strait of Trump. I guess that makes it easier for him to remember?!?!?
Yes...I actually heard Trump say it. Although...everyone in the administration will use that tried and true excuse (especially by this crew)..."He was joking!"
Duped? I dunno about that. Appearing to be tough is very appealing to this president and he was apparently very happy with the result of going into Venezuela so he was ready to be convinced.
“Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Axios reports, is heading to the White House today for a meeting with Chief of Staff Susie Wiles”. Frightening thought….Susie Wiles is the WH expert on all things AI?
No she's an expert in smoothing things over.
No, she is one of the people who is actually in control, unlike the cabinet members.
Except control of cabinet members and DJT.
Isn't she an expert on professional wrestling? If so, wouldn't it follow that she's an expert in education? In AI? Or maybe on health care? Maybe she's one of those stable geniuses.
Re NJ 11, can I say that I met Analilia while she walked around my town. While I wanted someone else, she is very magnetic in person and also clearly able to hold her own. She also brought out Hispanic voters in towns like Dover so not the worst choice.
The imprecision of military language of the “Department of War” is deliberate, they choose not to shape thought but emotion. Stir up the enthusiasm for a spectacular campaign, speaking of boots on the ground with no thought to the human beings, sons and daughters, inside those boots, who could very well end up dying a dreadful death. Mark Twain’s “The War Prayer”, about what people are really asking to come about with their prayers to God for military success, comes to mind:
"O Lord our Father, our young patriots, idols of our hearts, go forth to battle-be Thou near them! With them, in spirit, we also go forth from the sweet peace of our beloved firesides to smite the foe. O Lord our God, help us to tear their soldiers to bloody shreds with our shells; help us to cover their smiling fields with the pale forms of their patriot dead; help us to drown the thunder of the guns with the shrieks of their wounded, writhing in pain; help us to lay waste their humble homes with a hurricane of fire; help us to wring the hearts of their unoffending widows with unavailing grief; help us to turn them out roofless with their little children to wander unfriended the wastes of their desolated land in rags and hunger and thirst, sports of the sun flames of summer and the icy winds of winter, broken in spirit, worn with travail, imploring Thee for the refuge of the grave and denied it-for our sakes who adore Thee, Lord, blast their hopes, blight their lives, protract their bitter pilgrimage, make heavy their steps, water their way with their tears, stain the white snow with the blood of their wounded feet! We ask it, in the spirit of love, of Him Who is the Source of Love, and Who is ever-faithful refuge and friend of all that are sore beset and seek His aid with humble and contrite hearts. Amen.
Twain's point should be well taken by anyone giving the matter of "war prayers" more than just a passing thought.
As should the words from another war prayer from another now famous American a long time ago, in which he at least sought God's blessing for the right outcome for the right reasons...
"With Thy blessing, we shall prevail over the unholy forces of our enemy. Help us to conquer the apostles of greed and racial arrogancies. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister Nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace, a peace invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men. And a peace that will let all of men live in freedom, reaping the just rewards of their honest toil."
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/prayer-d-day
Now, sadly, the apostles of greed and racial arrogancies again hold sway, but this time within our own borders. Proving we're never invulnerable to the schemeings of unworthy men. So, I pray a bit myself these days...
I pray they reap their just reward and that right soon.
Hey... if Pete Hegseth can conflate prayer and cinematic dialogue, so can I...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/pentagon-defends-pete-hegseth-using-213057615.html
https://www.derricksrandomviews.com/blog/judgement
What frightens me is that our current government (and in particular our Secretary of WAR!!!) would speak that prayer meaning every word of it. They WANT innocent people to suffer!
Only American lives matter to him. If getting what you (or your liege lord) wants requires others to suffer, the sooner the better.
"OUR EVAPORATING POWER:"
From the perspective of a decade or two in the future, this will surely be one of the dominant themes of any history of the Trump administration.
I'd say power isn't evaporating so much as it is being given up.