Maybe not a civil war, which you're right is hard to see, but asymmetrical warfare / terrorism is an awful possibility to contemplate. Putting aside ideologies or even the right of things, Ireland, South Africa, and Israel are all examples of places where insurgents never assembled a viable military force against a formidable military po…
Maybe not a civil war, which you're right is hard to see, but asymmetrical warfare / terrorism is an awful possibility to contemplate. Putting aside ideologies or even the right of things, Ireland, South Africa, and Israel are all examples of places where insurgents never assembled a viable military force against a formidable military power, but wrought havoc for years. Something to consider and fear, at least in terms of living through and with it.
I also find it very hard to imagine asymmetrical warfare / terrorism working for any extended period of time in the country with the most advanced military, law enforcement institutions and surveillance capabilities the world has ever known. Especially when (unlike Ireland, etc.) the terrorists will not be supported by their local community along ethnic / religious grounds due to actual persecution (as opposed to the weak/fake claims of persecution MAGA has now).
This is what I hang my hope on when it comes to Ireland as an example. And that's not to say that we can't have some of the troubles, but that I don't think it gets sustained for anywhere near as long if it happens.
My biggest concern is really for the next time a Republican is in the whitehouse and the Republican running loses. That's where uncertainty about the legitimacy of who is giving the orders can lead to fracturing of police and military. If J6 had been a bit more 'successful' and Trump declares martial law or something, does the military just stop taking his orders on Jan 20th when there's 'uncertainty', no official inauguration, etc., etc.?
Maybe not a civil war, which you're right is hard to see, but asymmetrical warfare / terrorism is an awful possibility to contemplate. Putting aside ideologies or even the right of things, Ireland, South Africa, and Israel are all examples of places where insurgents never assembled a viable military force against a formidable military power, but wrought havoc for years. Something to consider and fear, at least in terms of living through and with it.
I also find it very hard to imagine asymmetrical warfare / terrorism working for any extended period of time in the country with the most advanced military, law enforcement institutions and surveillance capabilities the world has ever known. Especially when (unlike Ireland, etc.) the terrorists will not be supported by their local community along ethnic / religious grounds due to actual persecution (as opposed to the weak/fake claims of persecution MAGA has now).
This is what I hang my hope on when it comes to Ireland as an example. And that's not to say that we can't have some of the troubles, but that I don't think it gets sustained for anywhere near as long if it happens.
My biggest concern is really for the next time a Republican is in the whitehouse and the Republican running loses. That's where uncertainty about the legitimacy of who is giving the orders can lead to fracturing of police and military. If J6 had been a bit more 'successful' and Trump declares martial law or something, does the military just stop taking his orders on Jan 20th when there's 'uncertainty', no official inauguration, etc., etc.?
I hope you are right.
Me too. Me too.
. . . and you probably are. Most Americans are more decent than we give each other credit for.