The Dems did not bungle inflation. Inflation happened for reasons largely beyond Biden's ability to fix and yet was mostly under control by the time he left office. The problem was that Biden was president of a country with a malicious GOP uninterested in truth or governance, a vast and well-funded right wing media lie machine and ~40% of the electorate mainlining hate, lies and drivel 24/7. Things would certainly be better now if only the Dems had done everything perfectly for the last 10+ years (while being as lucky as Trump). But if the Republic only stands if the Dems are always perfect in policies, people, messaging and luck then we have no chance.
finally !!! - a bit more honest comparing of Biden's too [ & many more than mentioned here] adm's PROBLEMS in solving the squeezing us Out economy - and govt not having improved USA lives here...
i.e. by here now - finally - at least mentioning the 'bad' effects of unsolved inflation + & all associated with higher prices for most workers ... the majority that are not getting higher pay !
& all businesses who are also then responding ineffectually to that fall-into-worse-debts, unaffordable costs that Are reducing our daily lives... impoverishing many that are also ignored if not used as a sample mass media-clicker.
notice - most anti-trump slants -here too - neglect to even admit, acknowledge, nor include that previous Dem's adm were also ineffective with lots of fake-promises and 'messages' - including non-saintly Bidens.
all that claimed falsely that our lives were just 'fine' - creating false scenarios that were not verifiable by most of 'the rest of us'... selecting stats used for LYING and IMPLYING = not reality ... as We experience our lives ! thanks for being more accurate here -
vs. denying, slanting, hiding and pretending only 1 party has/ had SERIOUS propaganda & sales-messages that dominate most media. this bit of clarity in the swamp of muck -all incessant lies & dis-informing articles - this is necessary. Thanks !”
No economist am I, but when I see that the richest country in the world is now having so much internal discord, it simply amazes me. I am trying to understand it. Why is this so? It is not something that economists often write about or people think about. Which seems to indicate this is an uncomfortable topic which results in a societal blind spot.
There is the issue of overall wealth and then there is the issue of wealth inequality. Wealth inequality is increasingly being recognized as a cause of conflict, although not written about enough, I think. On the issue of overall wealth, there is a general consensus (certainly among economists) that there can never be too much. Yet, there are adverse effects of having too much wealth. There is research that suggests a link between increased wealth and greed. And also studies indicating that higher socioeconomic status can be associated with lower levels of compassion and a greater tendency toward unethical behavior. Unethical behavior? Yes, I think that you would have to be blind not to notice that happening in in one of our political Parties.
For me, it is an open question whether an increasing level of overall wealth must always lead to wealth inequality. I suspect that it will, but am not yet convinced that this must always be the case. In any event, there is another puzzling issue for me. How is it that all of the physical improvements in living standards over the last hundred years or so has not produced more satisfaction with daily life? And I dare ask, why isn't there more thankfulness for these improvements? In fact, there seems to be a regression. The conquest of previously fatal diseases has led to people now being able to live longer lives. But this result is endangered by things like ignorance and the the resulting political hostility to the great medical advances of the past, such as vaccines.
It is increasingly apparent to me that abundance alone does not necessarily lead to less conflict and violence. Perhaps for the human race, it can amplify greed, and produce the opposite result.
"It’s not totally clear what this would entail, and it’s always dangerous to spend more time analyzing a Trump policy than he spent coming up with it." This is why Trump is essentially an energy vampire: He says nonsensical stuff with hardly any thought or planning, and the opposition has to put in 10 to 100 times the effort and time to flesh it out and or refute it. So we get tired and Trump/MAGA feed off making other people scurry at their whim.
"how badly Joe Biden and the Democrats bungled inflation."
I think that's too harsh. In my opinion, Biden and the Dems didn't bungle inflation per se. They bungled the messaging about why inflation had to occur: because the government money that drove inflation kept Americans from dying (no job, no money, no food or heat) or losing their homes from repossession (no job, no money, no mortgage payment).
We got that 6.9 percent rate because the nation was shut down during Covid, people were forced out of work, and businesses were forced to close. Biden had to pump money into the economy so that shutdown did not create the Second Great Depression.
Biden's pumping trillions of dollars into the economy via the Fed did save the nation economically--I saw no Grandmas tossed into curbs as snowstorms howled--but that big an infusion so fast was going to create Big Inflation. (Ours became 6.9 percent, which frankly was small potatoes after having lived through the Reagan Era's 16+ percent.)
Biden's screwup was that he failed to tell Americans that while 7 percent was real and painful and sucked, his choice was that OR babies would die from lack of food and heat because mom and dad were forced out of their jobs. He should have said Covid made some bad things necessary, but the alternative was worse. He should have emphasized the big inflation would last only two years, then we'd be back to normal. He should have emphasized how long it would take to unsnarl the global supply chain mess that helped kicked inflation into high gear.
Instead, he and Dems bullied everyone relentlessly by implying--and also saying--we were nuts to think inflation was a problem. We weren't stupid, so that message was insulting. Democratic Party messaging has always been shitty, but this was a new extreme. It gave Trump the knife he needed to carve away just enough Democrats and independents to win in 2024.
Democrats desperately need a new messaging team, and have for years. This is the clearest example of that I can recall.
are you saying that the message is so much more important than facts// stats/// wallets emptied buying just necessities - by USA majority of folks ?
that propaganda, media-clickers, corporate PR /adverts/ 'spokes-people' / and the hype is what "we the people" & "the rest of us" are believing and agreeing to ?
vs. the reality of lives who try to maintain plain, regular, ordinary, & non luxurious living standards - are less valuable ways to KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING ? actually ? huh ?
that most Americans are continually fooled, dumb, and do not real-ize how the mass-intrusive media - corporate owned-run-profitting from our agreement - are the 'influencers' ?? huh ?
thanks for the deplored folks who are being pushed further into the dis-informing environment of LIES and FALSE stories they then have to be choked on all those Polluted 'facts' & 'news' & hired writers?
and then 'we' parrot repeat something about "free" speeches & "liberty" and all the garlanded words of which Americans pride themselves while having Less of everything we need... not just 'want' ????
I agree with what you've written, but our October 2024 The Economist magazine's headline read "The Envy of the World", meaning the US Economy - devoting an entire issue to explaining why our economy was extremely strong compared to the rest of the world! So, actually the Biden economy was terrific, but nobody except those who subscribed to The Economist were aware of it!
Biden's presidency passed some great legislation, including the Infrastructure bill - which Trump said multiple times that he would pass in his first term, but never did, & The Chips & Science Act. But Biden was a terrible advocate for those bills. And the Dems even let the Republicans who voted against those bills campaign as though they had sponsored them!
Absolutely, KMD. The Biden economy was the envy of the world by 2024 after a couple years of hard inflation due to the necessary Fed money infusion. But he got no credit except by, as you note, The Economist and maybe a few other outfits. The D Party completely screwed the pooch on selling that truth.
I can't tell you how glad I am that you're here at the Bulwark. You've long been one of my absolute favorites, and it's great to be able to keep up with you without having to contend with toxic bezos.
Catherine, I just wanted to let you know how informative I find your work and how much I enjoy your writing. (And by way of introduction, my favorite Sutton Foster song is My Heart Was Set On You and I am a securities lawyer, so I especially appreciate that your perspective reaches beyond the normal stock and bond market information I most frequently consume.)
I fear this problem is not going away. As energy is the foundation of all economic activity, and aggregate energy return on investment (EROI) continues to decline and the negative externalities of fossil energy consumption come home to roost, there will be increasing downward pressure on economic growth. In the long run, we have to figure out how to live within the solar flux - and do it at an EROI of 12-15 to maintain our current standard of living. Of course, the current administration is doing everything possible to impede our ability to achieve this. As JVL would say, good luck, America.
'It’s not totally clear what this would entail, and it’s always dangerous to spend more time analyzing a Trump policy than he spent coming up with it' is the best and most accurate summation to date.
The Dems did not bungle inflation. Inflation happened for reasons largely beyond Biden's ability to fix and yet was mostly under control by the time he left office. The problem was that Biden was president of a country with a malicious GOP uninterested in truth or governance, a vast and well-funded right wing media lie machine and ~40% of the electorate mainlining hate, lies and drivel 24/7. Things would certainly be better now if only the Dems had done everything perfectly for the last 10+ years (while being as lucky as Trump). But if the Republic only stands if the Dems are always perfect in policies, people, messaging and luck then we have no chance.
finally !!! - a bit more honest comparing of Biden's too [ & many more than mentioned here] adm's PROBLEMS in solving the squeezing us Out economy - and govt not having improved USA lives here...
i.e. by here now - finally - at least mentioning the 'bad' effects of unsolved inflation + & all associated with higher prices for most workers ... the majority that are not getting higher pay !
& all businesses who are also then responding ineffectually to that fall-into-worse-debts, unaffordable costs that Are reducing our daily lives... impoverishing many that are also ignored if not used as a sample mass media-clicker.
notice - most anti-trump slants -here too - neglect to even admit, acknowledge, nor include that previous Dem's adm were also ineffective with lots of fake-promises and 'messages' - including non-saintly Bidens.
all that claimed falsely that our lives were just 'fine' - creating false scenarios that were not verifiable by most of 'the rest of us'... selecting stats used for LYING and IMPLYING = not reality ... as We experience our lives ! thanks for being more accurate here -
vs. denying, slanting, hiding and pretending only 1 party has/ had SERIOUS propaganda & sales-messages that dominate most media. this bit of clarity in the swamp of muck -all incessant lies & dis-informing articles - this is necessary. Thanks !”
Great piece! I’m going to try integrating “squash to squash comparison” into my daily vernacular when comparing different things about Thanksgiving
Now you think Biden was a pedophile too
Great article and love the interspersed humor! So glad you are now at The Bulwark.
No economist am I, but when I see that the richest country in the world is now having so much internal discord, it simply amazes me. I am trying to understand it. Why is this so? It is not something that economists often write about or people think about. Which seems to indicate this is an uncomfortable topic which results in a societal blind spot.
There is the issue of overall wealth and then there is the issue of wealth inequality. Wealth inequality is increasingly being recognized as a cause of conflict, although not written about enough, I think. On the issue of overall wealth, there is a general consensus (certainly among economists) that there can never be too much. Yet, there are adverse effects of having too much wealth. There is research that suggests a link between increased wealth and greed. And also studies indicating that higher socioeconomic status can be associated with lower levels of compassion and a greater tendency toward unethical behavior. Unethical behavior? Yes, I think that you would have to be blind not to notice that happening in in one of our political Parties.
For me, it is an open question whether an increasing level of overall wealth must always lead to wealth inequality. I suspect that it will, but am not yet convinced that this must always be the case. In any event, there is another puzzling issue for me. How is it that all of the physical improvements in living standards over the last hundred years or so has not produced more satisfaction with daily life? And I dare ask, why isn't there more thankfulness for these improvements? In fact, there seems to be a regression. The conquest of previously fatal diseases has led to people now being able to live longer lives. But this result is endangered by things like ignorance and the the resulting political hostility to the great medical advances of the past, such as vaccines.
It is increasingly apparent to me that abundance alone does not necessarily lead to less conflict and violence. Perhaps for the human race, it can amplify greed, and produce the opposite result.
"It’s not totally clear what this would entail, and it’s always dangerous to spend more time analyzing a Trump policy than he spent coming up with it." This is why Trump is essentially an energy vampire: He says nonsensical stuff with hardly any thought or planning, and the opposition has to put in 10 to 100 times the effort and time to flesh it out and or refute it. So we get tired and Trump/MAGA feed off making other people scurry at their whim.
"how badly Joe Biden and the Democrats bungled inflation."
I think that's too harsh. In my opinion, Biden and the Dems didn't bungle inflation per se. They bungled the messaging about why inflation had to occur: because the government money that drove inflation kept Americans from dying (no job, no money, no food or heat) or losing their homes from repossession (no job, no money, no mortgage payment).
We got that 6.9 percent rate because the nation was shut down during Covid, people were forced out of work, and businesses were forced to close. Biden had to pump money into the economy so that shutdown did not create the Second Great Depression.
Biden's pumping trillions of dollars into the economy via the Fed did save the nation economically--I saw no Grandmas tossed into curbs as snowstorms howled--but that big an infusion so fast was going to create Big Inflation. (Ours became 6.9 percent, which frankly was small potatoes after having lived through the Reagan Era's 16+ percent.)
Biden's screwup was that he failed to tell Americans that while 7 percent was real and painful and sucked, his choice was that OR babies would die from lack of food and heat because mom and dad were forced out of their jobs. He should have said Covid made some bad things necessary, but the alternative was worse. He should have emphasized the big inflation would last only two years, then we'd be back to normal. He should have emphasized how long it would take to unsnarl the global supply chain mess that helped kicked inflation into high gear.
Instead, he and Dems bullied everyone relentlessly by implying--and also saying--we were nuts to think inflation was a problem. We weren't stupid, so that message was insulting. Democratic Party messaging has always been shitty, but this was a new extreme. It gave Trump the knife he needed to carve away just enough Democrats and independents to win in 2024.
Democrats desperately need a new messaging team, and have for years. This is the clearest example of that I can recall.
are you saying that the message is so much more important than facts// stats/// wallets emptied buying just necessities - by USA majority of folks ?
that propaganda, media-clickers, corporate PR /adverts/ 'spokes-people' / and the hype is what "we the people" & "the rest of us" are believing and agreeing to ?
vs. the reality of lives who try to maintain plain, regular, ordinary, & non luxurious living standards - are less valuable ways to KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING ? actually ? huh ?
that most Americans are continually fooled, dumb, and do not real-ize how the mass-intrusive media - corporate owned-run-profitting from our agreement - are the 'influencers' ?? huh ?
thanks for the deplored folks who are being pushed further into the dis-informing environment of LIES and FALSE stories they then have to be choked on all those Polluted 'facts' & 'news' & hired writers?
and then 'we' parrot repeat something about "free" speeches & "liberty" and all the garlanded words of which Americans pride themselves while having Less of everything we need... not just 'want' ????
I agree with what you've written, but our October 2024 The Economist magazine's headline read "The Envy of the World", meaning the US Economy - devoting an entire issue to explaining why our economy was extremely strong compared to the rest of the world! So, actually the Biden economy was terrific, but nobody except those who subscribed to The Economist were aware of it!
Biden's presidency passed some great legislation, including the Infrastructure bill - which Trump said multiple times that he would pass in his first term, but never did, & The Chips & Science Act. But Biden was a terrible advocate for those bills. And the Dems even let the Republicans who voted against those bills campaign as though they had sponsored them!
Absolutely, KMD. The Biden economy was the envy of the world by 2024 after a couple years of hard inflation due to the necessary Fed money infusion. But he got no credit except by, as you note, The Economist and maybe a few other outfits. The D Party completely screwed the pooch on selling that truth.
I can't tell you how glad I am that you're here at the Bulwark. You've long been one of my absolute favorites, and it's great to be able to keep up with you without having to contend with toxic bezos.
Thank you Catherine.
Enjoying your posts a
great deal.
Catherine, I just wanted to let you know how informative I find your work and how much I enjoy your writing. (And by way of introduction, my favorite Sutton Foster song is My Heart Was Set On You and I am a securities lawyer, so I especially appreciate that your perspective reaches beyond the normal stock and bond market information I most frequently consume.)
I fear this problem is not going away. As energy is the foundation of all economic activity, and aggregate energy return on investment (EROI) continues to decline and the negative externalities of fossil energy consumption come home to roost, there will be increasing downward pressure on economic growth. In the long run, we have to figure out how to live within the solar flux - and do it at an EROI of 12-15 to maintain our current standard of living. Of course, the current administration is doing everything possible to impede our ability to achieve this. As JVL would say, good luck, America.
Prices in 1932 were much lower than they were in October, 1929. I can hardly wait.
Hi Catherine,
Luke Gromen is one of the smartest analysts of our federal debt and what it means for our economy going forward.
Here is his most recent presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkijTrpB5Y0
I'd love to see you interview Gromen.
'It’s not totally clear what this would entail, and it’s always dangerous to spend more time analyzing a Trump policy than he spent coming up with it' is the best and most accurate summation to date.
Thank you for covering economics so I can understand them! If you have money for Door Dash I'm not sure the price of the food is really a concern.