Call me crazy, but I think there's an opportunity here for the Democrats.
First of all, the House GOP members really don't like each other all that much. The only thing that unites them is a hatred for everyone who doesn't look, sound, and think like they do. I don't think it'll take a lot of work to get them to turn on each other.
Call me crazy, but I think there's an opportunity here for the Democrats.
First of all, the House GOP members really don't like each other all that much. The only thing that unites them is a hatred for everyone who doesn't look, sound, and think like they do. I don't think it'll take a lot of work to get them to turn on each other.
Secondly, Johnson has benefited from being in the shadows. Now that the spotlight is on him, it's time to put the screws to him. Fundamentalist types like him are very closed minded and they don't like having their beliefs challenged. Use that against him. Take his "faith" and turn it against him at every moment.
“ Secondly, Johnson has benefited from being in the shadows.”
I suspect Jim Jordan has the sting of regret from being under the magnifying glass during his Speaker run; now his sordid role in the Ohio State sex abuse scandal is fresh again in the media. Oops.
Imagine how fucked up you have to be to believe the State should surveil what happens in people's bedrooms? Funny how Johnson doesn't have anything bad to say about serial adulterers like Trump and MTG, or Boebert giving a handjob to her date in a public theater. I don't know, maybe Johnson liked Boebert's technique?
Lol, you really think dems are this good at fighting? They won't do shit because they don't know how to be an insurgent minority party. They only know how to try to pass legislature when they have a strong enough majority.
I think, by not saving McCarthy, they allowed the GOP to lurch even further over the edge. They just selected a back bencher as Speaker, and this guy is as close of a caricature of a modern right winger as they come. The House GOP is about as stable as Glenn Close's character in "Fatal Attraction". It shouldn't take that much effort to get them to do something incredibly stupid.
Yea voting out McCarthy was their biggest power move to date and I'm proud of em for it (when your enemy is drowning, throw him an anvil). Hopefully the MAGA clown car keeps doing what its doing and maybe it helps Biden out next year.
It showed the cohesiveness of the Democrats under Jeffries. But I also think that the Dems have a lot more intellectual firepower than the GOP. Raskin and Schiff are smart, smart guys. Swalwell is pretty smart too and he isn't afraid to mix it up with the GOP (calling McCarthy a pussy to his face recently was a baller move). Of course, they have their own members that go off the reservation, but that's to be expected. My hope is Jeffries learned from Pelosi the benefits of playing the long game. David Frum has talked about how strategic Pelosi was as Speaker, and I think there's an episode of the Bulwark Podcast where Frum talks about this very thing. I'll go hunt it down.
I just finished Cassidy Hutchinson’s book, and the fear of Trump among his staff was palpable. Nobody ever wanted to deliver bad news to him. But I will never understand WHY. He’s such a wimpy specimen, to my eyes.
I don't know, but I suspect rationalization. Both the rationalization that being in the room was too important to risk, and the rationalization that no good (personal or otherwise) was going to come from standing up to him.
I noted yesterday that Johnson will last until the moment he has to exit his plastic bubble and deal with the real world on November 17, when the short-term appropriations bill expires. MAGA is going to demand a shutdown and slashing spending to levels even Senate Republicans oppose. Once the PR gets bad (it will kill Virginia for the GOP in 2024, for instance), Johnson will have to decide if the House will vote for the bill the Senate/President wants--and he potentially loses his job for being a squish--or if the House wants to continue getting beaten up daily in the media.
My out-of-the-money prediction: they'll pass a CR thru Dec/Jan with Israel aid and money for the border, and a promise to vote individually (sadistically) on each of the appropriations and dare the Senate/President to reject it. That will get them some breathing room, and some "goodwill"/good publicity in order to really execute the MAGA agenda. That would be the strategic move, but given that I can't think like MAGA, it's probably not going to happen.
I think the other issue is Ukraine funding. Maybe Biden says something to the effect of, "Mitch McConnell, for all our differences, understands America's place in the world as a defender of democracy, and there are several Republicans in the House that understand that as well. We look forward to working with them to safeguard Ukraine against a tyrant's war crimes."
That will be an interesting ‘canary in the coal mine’ moment coming shortly. Since the Orange man sides with Putin, and the new speaker sides with the Orange man, how do you think this plays out?
Say what you will about Mitch McConnell, but he recognizes the urgency of supporting Ukraine against what has turned into a genocidal oppressor. I believe in the Senate, the center of gravity is closer to McConnell than it is to JD Vance. Biden's policy has been quite traditionally conservative, in my view, on the Ukraine issue. He's standing up for the freedom and liberty of Ukraine's people, something that the old school GOP used to do in the before times. The third side of this particular triangle is the House, and that's where the biggest divisions within the GOP are. Biden's been around a long, long time. Mike Johnson has not. Biden builds consensus, Johnson is a fundamentalist, and while the latter sort of thinking may be useful in obtaining power, it's not really useful when it comes to wielding it. See Newt Gingrich in the 90's, when Bill Clinton played his ass like a two dollar banjo repeatedly. The caucus Johnson leads is about as stable as someone with severe bipolar disorder going off their meds and on a coke bender. I personally believe that should be used against them. For example, Johnson claims to be prolife, but can he abide by children getting killed by Putin every day. Aren't the people in Ukraine God's children, too, after all? Use MAGA's "Christian" faith against them. Repeatedly and relentlessly. Biden can't do this because he's POTUS and he needs to be seen as the adult in the room, but there's no reason why Biden's allies can't do this.
Agree. Johnson is immediately put in a box here. If he works with the Dems to push through aid to Ukraine (via a continuing resolution, for example), we may see him go down in flames a lot quicker than MY Kevin ...On the other side, if he goes along with the crazies and hold line-item by line-item votes on a new spending bill, this may drag on till 2025
And Biden has been masterful at linking the fight for democracy here with fights for democracy in Ukraine and elsewhere. It's the same stuff Reagan and Bush 41 did back in the day. So I would force Johnson and his caucus to show their hand and what sort of world they want. And then fucking hammer them with it.
Part of that has to be (I think) a reminder to the American people of how good our place in the world is. We have the world's strongest military. We sit atop the strongest and most successful alliance in the history of the world. We are a net oil exporter and are on pace to produce more oil in 2023 than any year in our history. We have the world's reserve currency and there aren't any serious alternatives on the horizon. In short, we've got the world by the ass.
The only thing that can screw things up for us is to shoot ourselves in the foot. We can do this one of two ways, both of which the Republicans are trying to do. 1) Hand Russia a victory in Ukraine which will shatter confidence in our alliance members and embolden those who want to disrupt the US-led global order. 2) Screw up our economy by shutting our government down and causing the world to doubt whether they can trust the US to do simple things like pay its bills.
Now I'd stop there on the initial message. When the inevitable pushback comes, I'd push hard on how our place atop the global order cannot be up for debate, but that Democrats are more than ready to discuss ways of helping the middle class take better advantage of our great situation by doing things like making medicines more affordable, expanding opportunities for post high-school learning (including trade schools), and rolling back Trump's tax cuts for the wealthy that have contributed to high inflation, higher national debt, and the illusion that we can't afford to confront a failing state like Russia by supporting the free people of Ukraine who have been the victims of an unprovoked invasion.
And what you describe is a very *positive* message. Stuart Stevens likes to talk about how, during the Reagan years, there was a feeling that being born in America was an incredibly lucky thing and you've essentially hit the jackpot. But the Trump years have done away with that optimism. I will never understand the lack of gratitude that these people have. Jim Jordan was able to win election to the House of Representatives even though he's a fucking idiot. Mike Johnson has been free to practice his virulent form of Christianity without any interference from the State. And yet these people want to destroy the very foundation that gave them the freedom to live their lives they way they've lived them. And why? What makes them so special? Imagine the level of self regard Mike Johnson has to have to believe that The Divine has ordained him to be the Speaker of the House. I mean, really, did The Divine ordain Putin, Xi, and Orban, too, or did He sit those elections out?
For me, the conservative, small-c, party is now the Democrats, and I never thought I'd see that day.
I struggle with understanding religion on many fronts, but the one you mention is a big one. Ask them who is responsible for all the bad people you mention, and they'll come up with Satan. Ask who made Satan and allows him to operate....well then the answer is free will. And of course if it is free will, exactly how is God ordaining this or that person as his instrument on earth? Not to put too fine a point on it, but it is turtles all the fucking way down.
Man is responsible for man's problems. We suck, knowltok. We fucking suck. Imagine the mental gymnastics required to believe that Donald Trump was elected in 2016 to save America and he was chosen by The Divine? And then imagine the rationalization you have to do to excuse every morally despicable action the man took while in office. Did God make them do that? Do they not have agency (free will)? Did God say it was OK for Trump to violate E. Jean Carroll?
"Convincing humans to do evil in the name of the Enemy is still one of our finest maneuvers, and you will find it highly enjoyable."
Johnson will do whatever he thinks God wants him to do. This actually means Johnson's God will tell him to do what Johnson wants to do. Gotta love that kind of god....which Johnson surely does seem to do.
"Do not fail to use the patient’s religion against him. Tell him that the Old Man would not be where he is were it not the will of the Enemy.
"Now, that this last point is so ridiculous that it could blow up in your face if you do not handle it with great care. A moment of sober consideration will reveal it to be utter twaddle. (After all, what human beings think their opponents are appointed by the Enemy Himself?)
"Because this is such fragile nonsense, you must plant the idea quickly and then just as swiftly prevent your patient from examining the logical contradiction at its core. Instead, impress upon him that he can and should serve the Old Man as a way of serving the Enemy. Convincing humans to do evil in the name of the Enemy is still one of our finest maneuvers, and you will find it highly enjoyable."
Really appreciate these references to Tom's variation on Screwtape Letters, which I thought was really well done. The original Screwtape Letters is perennially and stingingly relevant. Lewis said it was both one of the easiest things and least pleasant things to write that he ever did.
The near future is foreseeable. Johnson will dance on the MAGA strings into another Republican shutdown. This one could drag on for weeks, with the former guy demanding absolute mindless loyalty and getting it from the present House majority until the pressure from voters in swing districts grows unbearable. The spineless will then be squeezed into an awkward attempt at bipartisanship and another manufactured crisis will be resolved. All in service to the god-king.
A long shut down could spell trouble for the GOP next November. But who knows: the fabled “Black Swan Event” or the “October Surprise” seem to be happening too frequently these days. It makes prediction of cause/effect a bad gamble.
I won't call you crazy, Tim, but I think this is the same attitude everyone has been taking every time something abhorrent happens - what's the "up-side"? I've come to believe that there is no "up-side" with today's GOP. It's a constant continuum. We have to turn out the vote in the greatest numbers we've ever done before, and there are days when that seems like next-to-impossible, what with 3rd party candidates who will siphon more votes from Biden than trump....
I'm not saying we can let the hard work slide, MoosesMom. We still have to show up and vote. But in addition to that, you have to battle MAGA on their turf. This is a zero sum game, and it requires zero sum tactics. Just as MAGA leverages the levers of democracy to undermine it, we have to use the tactics of autocracy against them.
I'm all for this but in a country where a very large number of voters live entirely in a right-wing propaganda universe, I doubt the message breaks through.
Call me crazy, but I think there's an opportunity here for the Democrats.
First of all, the House GOP members really don't like each other all that much. The only thing that unites them is a hatred for everyone who doesn't look, sound, and think like they do. I don't think it'll take a lot of work to get them to turn on each other.
Secondly, Johnson has benefited from being in the shadows. Now that the spotlight is on him, it's time to put the screws to him. Fundamentalist types like him are very closed minded and they don't like having their beliefs challenged. Use that against him. Take his "faith" and turn it against him at every moment.
“ Secondly, Johnson has benefited from being in the shadows.”
I suspect Jim Jordan has the sting of regret from being under the magnifying glass during his Speaker run; now his sordid role in the Ohio State sex abuse scandal is fresh again in the media. Oops.
Imagine how fucked up you have to be to believe the State should surveil what happens in people's bedrooms? Funny how Johnson doesn't have anything bad to say about serial adulterers like Trump and MTG, or Boebert giving a handjob to her date in a public theater. I don't know, maybe Johnson liked Boebert's technique?
All those right wing Christian Nationalists are perverts.
Lol, you really think dems are this good at fighting? They won't do shit because they don't know how to be an insurgent minority party. They only know how to try to pass legislature when they have a strong enough majority.
I think, by not saving McCarthy, they allowed the GOP to lurch even further over the edge. They just selected a back bencher as Speaker, and this guy is as close of a caricature of a modern right winger as they come. The House GOP is about as stable as Glenn Close's character in "Fatal Attraction". It shouldn't take that much effort to get them to do something incredibly stupid.
Yea voting out McCarthy was their biggest power move to date and I'm proud of em for it (when your enemy is drowning, throw him an anvil). Hopefully the MAGA clown car keeps doing what its doing and maybe it helps Biden out next year.
It showed the cohesiveness of the Democrats under Jeffries. But I also think that the Dems have a lot more intellectual firepower than the GOP. Raskin and Schiff are smart, smart guys. Swalwell is pretty smart too and he isn't afraid to mix it up with the GOP (calling McCarthy a pussy to his face recently was a baller move). Of course, they have their own members that go off the reservation, but that's to be expected. My hope is Jeffries learned from Pelosi the benefits of playing the long game. David Frum has talked about how strategic Pelosi was as Speaker, and I think there's an episode of the Bulwark Podcast where Frum talks about this very thing. I'll go hunt it down.
Here it is.
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/david-frum-house-republicans-aim#details
True because it goes against their ethos of governing.
Also it’s really hard to be an insurgent party when you control the senate and the White House. Still though, they do suck at it in general
They all may hate each other but they clearly fear trump. And trump knows it.
I just finished Cassidy Hutchinson’s book, and the fear of Trump among his staff was palpable. Nobody ever wanted to deliver bad news to him. But I will never understand WHY. He’s such a wimpy specimen, to my eyes.
I don't know, but I suspect rationalization. Both the rationalization that being in the room was too important to risk, and the rationalization that no good (personal or otherwise) was going to come from standing up to him.
Sure, which is all the more reason why you do what you can to induce their own self-destruction.
I noted yesterday that Johnson will last until the moment he has to exit his plastic bubble and deal with the real world on November 17, when the short-term appropriations bill expires. MAGA is going to demand a shutdown and slashing spending to levels even Senate Republicans oppose. Once the PR gets bad (it will kill Virginia for the GOP in 2024, for instance), Johnson will have to decide if the House will vote for the bill the Senate/President wants--and he potentially loses his job for being a squish--or if the House wants to continue getting beaten up daily in the media.
My out-of-the-money prediction: they'll pass a CR thru Dec/Jan with Israel aid and money for the border, and a promise to vote individually (sadistically) on each of the appropriations and dare the Senate/President to reject it. That will get them some breathing room, and some "goodwill"/good publicity in order to really execute the MAGA agenda. That would be the strategic move, but given that I can't think like MAGA, it's probably not going to happen.
Don't underestimate these people.
And not thinking that way is a good thing!
I think the other issue is Ukraine funding. Maybe Biden says something to the effect of, "Mitch McConnell, for all our differences, understands America's place in the world as a defender of democracy, and there are several Republicans in the House that understand that as well. We look forward to working with them to safeguard Ukraine against a tyrant's war crimes."
That will be an interesting ‘canary in the coal mine’ moment coming shortly. Since the Orange man sides with Putin, and the new speaker sides with the Orange man, how do you think this plays out?
I wish I knew. But I'll offer an opinion.
Say what you will about Mitch McConnell, but he recognizes the urgency of supporting Ukraine against what has turned into a genocidal oppressor. I believe in the Senate, the center of gravity is closer to McConnell than it is to JD Vance. Biden's policy has been quite traditionally conservative, in my view, on the Ukraine issue. He's standing up for the freedom and liberty of Ukraine's people, something that the old school GOP used to do in the before times. The third side of this particular triangle is the House, and that's where the biggest divisions within the GOP are. Biden's been around a long, long time. Mike Johnson has not. Biden builds consensus, Johnson is a fundamentalist, and while the latter sort of thinking may be useful in obtaining power, it's not really useful when it comes to wielding it. See Newt Gingrich in the 90's, when Bill Clinton played his ass like a two dollar banjo repeatedly. The caucus Johnson leads is about as stable as someone with severe bipolar disorder going off their meds and on a coke bender. I personally believe that should be used against them. For example, Johnson claims to be prolife, but can he abide by children getting killed by Putin every day. Aren't the people in Ukraine God's children, too, after all? Use MAGA's "Christian" faith against them. Repeatedly and relentlessly. Biden can't do this because he's POTUS and he needs to be seen as the adult in the room, but there's no reason why Biden's allies can't do this.
Oh geeze, Tim; you’ve got me worrying about McConnell’s health, with regard to Ukraine. I never thought I’d say that, about McConnell, ever.
When the man's right, he's right, GG. Tough as it is to admit.
Just like the broken clock.
Agree. Johnson is immediately put in a box here. If he works with the Dems to push through aid to Ukraine (via a continuing resolution, for example), we may see him go down in flames a lot quicker than MY Kevin ...On the other side, if he goes along with the crazies and hold line-item by line-item votes on a new spending bill, this may drag on till 2025
And Biden has been masterful at linking the fight for democracy here with fights for democracy in Ukraine and elsewhere. It's the same stuff Reagan and Bush 41 did back in the day. So I would force Johnson and his caucus to show their hand and what sort of world they want. And then fucking hammer them with it.
Part of that has to be (I think) a reminder to the American people of how good our place in the world is. We have the world's strongest military. We sit atop the strongest and most successful alliance in the history of the world. We are a net oil exporter and are on pace to produce more oil in 2023 than any year in our history. We have the world's reserve currency and there aren't any serious alternatives on the horizon. In short, we've got the world by the ass.
The only thing that can screw things up for us is to shoot ourselves in the foot. We can do this one of two ways, both of which the Republicans are trying to do. 1) Hand Russia a victory in Ukraine which will shatter confidence in our alliance members and embolden those who want to disrupt the US-led global order. 2) Screw up our economy by shutting our government down and causing the world to doubt whether they can trust the US to do simple things like pay its bills.
Now I'd stop there on the initial message. When the inevitable pushback comes, I'd push hard on how our place atop the global order cannot be up for debate, but that Democrats are more than ready to discuss ways of helping the middle class take better advantage of our great situation by doing things like making medicines more affordable, expanding opportunities for post high-school learning (including trade schools), and rolling back Trump's tax cuts for the wealthy that have contributed to high inflation, higher national debt, and the illusion that we can't afford to confront a failing state like Russia by supporting the free people of Ukraine who have been the victims of an unprovoked invasion.
And what you describe is a very *positive* message. Stuart Stevens likes to talk about how, during the Reagan years, there was a feeling that being born in America was an incredibly lucky thing and you've essentially hit the jackpot. But the Trump years have done away with that optimism. I will never understand the lack of gratitude that these people have. Jim Jordan was able to win election to the House of Representatives even though he's a fucking idiot. Mike Johnson has been free to practice his virulent form of Christianity without any interference from the State. And yet these people want to destroy the very foundation that gave them the freedom to live their lives they way they've lived them. And why? What makes them so special? Imagine the level of self regard Mike Johnson has to have to believe that The Divine has ordained him to be the Speaker of the House. I mean, really, did The Divine ordain Putin, Xi, and Orban, too, or did He sit those elections out?
For me, the conservative, small-c, party is now the Democrats, and I never thought I'd see that day.
Agreed.
I struggle with understanding religion on many fronts, but the one you mention is a big one. Ask them who is responsible for all the bad people you mention, and they'll come up with Satan. Ask who made Satan and allows him to operate....well then the answer is free will. And of course if it is free will, exactly how is God ordaining this or that person as his instrument on earth? Not to put too fine a point on it, but it is turtles all the fucking way down.
Man is responsible for man's problems. We suck, knowltok. We fucking suck. Imagine the mental gymnastics required to believe that Donald Trump was elected in 2016 to save America and he was chosen by The Divine? And then imagine the rationalization you have to do to excuse every morally despicable action the man took while in office. Did God make them do that? Do they not have agency (free will)? Did God say it was OK for Trump to violate E. Jean Carroll?
"Convincing humans to do evil in the name of the Enemy is still one of our finest maneuvers, and you will find it highly enjoyable."
Johnson will do whatever he thinks God wants him to do. This actually means Johnson's God will tell him to do what Johnson wants to do. Gotta love that kind of god....which Johnson surely does seem to do.
From Tom Nichols' take on The Screwtape Letters:
"Do not fail to use the patient’s religion against him. Tell him that the Old Man would not be where he is were it not the will of the Enemy.
"Now, that this last point is so ridiculous that it could blow up in your face if you do not handle it with great care. A moment of sober consideration will reveal it to be utter twaddle. (After all, what human beings think their opponents are appointed by the Enemy Himself?)
"Because this is such fragile nonsense, you must plant the idea quickly and then just as swiftly prevent your patient from examining the logical contradiction at its core. Instead, impress upon him that he can and should serve the Old Man as a way of serving the Enemy. Convincing humans to do evil in the name of the Enemy is still one of our finest maneuvers, and you will find it highly enjoyable."
Really appreciate these references to Tom's variation on Screwtape Letters, which I thought was really well done. The original Screwtape Letters is perennially and stingingly relevant. Lewis said it was both one of the easiest things and least pleasant things to write that he ever did.
Yeah, I imagine getting to Screwtape's headspace is a dark place to be. At the same time, it's such a fascinating read.
I think the phrase Lewis used was "spiritual cramp."
This is from part 7 of Nichols' series. The link for that is here.
https://www.thebulwark.com/the-screwtape-letters-part-7/
The whole series is here:
https://www.thebulwark.com/tag/screwtape/
I had no idea that was on the Bulwark!
Best part of the Bulwark commentariat: the reading recommendations
Worst part of the Bulwark commentariat: keeping up with the reading recommendations
And by Johnson's God you mean TFG, right?
TFG is the son of Johnson's god.
The near future is foreseeable. Johnson will dance on the MAGA strings into another Republican shutdown. This one could drag on for weeks, with the former guy demanding absolute mindless loyalty and getting it from the present House majority until the pressure from voters in swing districts grows unbearable. The spineless will then be squeezed into an awkward attempt at bipartisanship and another manufactured crisis will be resolved. All in service to the god-king.
A long shut down could spell trouble for the GOP next November. But who knows: the fabled “Black Swan Event” or the “October Surprise” seem to be happening too frequently these days. It makes prediction of cause/effect a bad gamble.
It made me sad to realize that you are absolutely right, Kim. It will go exactly that way.
I won't call you crazy, Tim, but I think this is the same attitude everyone has been taking every time something abhorrent happens - what's the "up-side"? I've come to believe that there is no "up-side" with today's GOP. It's a constant continuum. We have to turn out the vote in the greatest numbers we've ever done before, and there are days when that seems like next-to-impossible, what with 3rd party candidates who will siphon more votes from Biden than trump....
Bluenami!
I'm not saying we can let the hard work slide, MoosesMom. We still have to show up and vote. But in addition to that, you have to battle MAGA on their turf. This is a zero sum game, and it requires zero sum tactics. Just as MAGA leverages the levers of democracy to undermine it, we have to use the tactics of autocracy against them.
I ask this sincerely: use it how?
I'm all for this but in a country where a very large number of voters live entirely in a right-wing propaganda universe, I doubt the message breaks through.