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Are YOU Prepared for the Fetterman Contingency?

Taking the Senate is even harder than you think.

Jonathan V. Last's avatar
Jonathan V. Last
May 01, 2026
∙ Paid
Is John Fetterman the Republican future? (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

1. Senators

I’ve given you two pieces of joy this week so let’s bring down the room. If Democrats don’t win the Senate in November, it will be bad.

  • Democrats are likely to come close to flipping the Senate, so if they fall short the narrative will be that Trump “held” and did better than expected.

  • Without control of the Senate, impeachment becomes an even more politically-fraught exercise.

  • If Republicans control the Senate, then chances are >90 percent that Trump will have the chance to replace both Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, creating a Trump-picked majority on the Supreme Court for a generation.

Now, there is some good news and some bad news on the Senate. The good news is that

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